Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

by Randy Booth on Feb 4, 2008 12:08 AM EST in News

Official writer for RedSox.com (and fan of Over The Monster) Ian Browne recently predicted the Red Sox roster, citing Dustin Pedroia as 2008's lead-off man.

Here's how he thinks the lineup will break down:

Pedroia, 2b
Youkilis, 1b
Ortiz, dh
Ramirez, lf
Lowell, 3b
Drew, rf
Varitek, c
Ellsbury, cf
Lugo, ss

I understand not "throwing Ellsbury into the fire" but I think he earned his stripes in September and October. I think he can handle the lead-off role as soon as the season kicks off. I think he deserves it.

What is everyone else's thoughts?

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Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

I think DP is more likely to give us consistently high pitch counts and .OBP than Jacoby. Let him show a little more overall patience in the bigs before putting him at the top.

by Allen Chace on Feb 4, 2008 12:11 AM EST reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

If PedROYa is indeed lead-off - it probably makes sense, I'd bat Ellsbury 9th just to keep the pressure to replicate last September off of Jacoby, at least a little bit. No sense in sticking a .333 career OBP in between our young on-base machines.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Feb 4, 2008 12:21 AM EST reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

+1.

by Allen Chace on Feb 4, 2008 12:24 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

I think I was drunker than I thought I was last night. I dreamed that the Giants won the Superbowl? Ugh...

Looking at the lineup in the light of day, having Drew, Tek and Lugo back-to-back-to-back seems like a relatively automatic 1-2-3 inning.

Aren't there PECOTA/Pythagorean based computer type things that would tell us the optimal lineup, based on projected '08 stats? I'd be curious to see those.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Feb 4, 2008 8:14 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

Yes, but if you assume those three are automatic outs, then it would be a waste for ellsbury to get on base w/ 2 outs (Drew + Tek) and then get out number 3 with Lugo.

Batting him ninth makes a lot of sense. It's a very pressure-free situation, but it still allows him to get on base as the top of the order is coming up to bat, and set the table for our mashers.
If he hits .325/ .380/ .410, then we move him to leadoff and change the lineup to:

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Ortiz
Ramirez
Lowell
Youk
Drew
Tek
Lugo

Except I don't like having 3 righties in a row... maybe Drew will get his act together so we can bat him 5 or 6.

by Schulz on Feb 4, 2008 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

It really doesn't matter who is lead off in April, it really does matter if Tito has to juggle the line up in June because Pedroya or Ellsbury are in slumps. I think Pitchers are going to find out Ellsbury weak points, much like any pitcher knows they have to get Ortiz out with an inside breaking ball. Remember Lugo was lead off in April last year and Tito switch around even having Drew as lead off for a couple games, ditto for Crisp.

I think Ellsbury would be a good leadoff, with Youklis second and Pedroya 6th-7th.

by superferret on Feb 4, 2008 5:01 AM EST reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

This move makes a lot of sense. No way do they want to put any pressure on Ellsbury. Sure, he has proven he can handle the show, but why risk a start like DP and put the media on him. Truth is, Ellsbury is most likely going to have a "slump" or down period like most major leaguers have when they first come up, so by putting him in the 9th spot you avoid the media crap that will go along with a slump.

With this lineup, Ellsbury can contribute and you let DP take the heat of leading off.

by SoxAcumen on Feb 4, 2008 5:30 AM EST reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

I wonder if Pedroia will sophmore slump as well?

by Matzushocka on Feb 4, 2008 11:13 AM EST reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

Pedroia began his MLB career in a slump and fought his way out. I'm not concerned there. He's a down-the-line, line-drive machine

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Feb 4, 2008 12:24 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

Yeah, Ellsbury isn't fit for the leadoff role yet, correcting my earlier blog. Maybe if he matures and is able to handle the pressure we could try him there. As for Pedroia, he has the ability to get on base a lot, even though he isn't especially fast.

You know, a lot of people say they didn't want to die until the Red Sox won the World Series. Well, there could be a lot of busy ambulances tomorrow.

by BoSox415 on Feb 4, 2008 2:19 PM EST reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

My lineup:

Ellsbury cf
Pedroia 2b
Ortiz dh
Being lf
Lowell 3b
Youk 1b
Drew rf
Tek c
Lugo ss

Ellsbury, to my mind, proved he can handle leadoff duties in September and October. And if Drew comes back from all his personal issues of last season, he can even move up to fifth or sixth in the lineup.

Further, let's not forget that Lugo hit .280 after the all-star break. He's not the hitless wonder many Sox fans think he is (and was before the break). If he can hit .280 for the whole season, he'll be the most dangerous #9 hitter in the league.

by RSNexile on Feb 4, 2008 5:11 PM EST reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

Plagiarism! This post is very similar to mine above...
I'm sueing

by Schulz on Feb 4, 2008 5:56 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

hey, you copied mine that i posted for the Red Sox Lineup blog, so i'm countersueing!

You know, a lot of people say they didn't want to die until the Red Sox won the World Series. Well, there could be a lot of busy ambulances tomorrow.

by BoSox415 on Feb 4, 2008 8:00 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

damn.

by Schulz on Feb 4, 2008 8:26 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

I think you'll find if you dig deeply enough that I came up with this in October.

by RSNexile on Feb 5, 2008 10:14 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

double damn.

If the right side of the brain controls the left side of the body, then only lefties are in the right mind.

by BoSox415 on Feb 5, 2008 5:23 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

Ellsbury's not a guarantee yet. I think you ease him in starting him near the bottom of the lineup.

by Devine @ Over the Monster on Feb 4, 2008 5:45 PM EST reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

The team's luxury is its ridiculous depth. I do not dismiss Coco's chances of beating Ellsbury out to start the year. He is such a superb defensive CF that he could make the Sox play him. Tito and Theo have the luxury of making Ellsbury earn his keep here, and I think for his development that is only right.

Coco is a high value commodity. A CF of his caliber (yeah, meh with the bat, but one of the three of four best at picking it) with an extremely friendly contract should not be given away.

Pedroia makes the most sense starting at leadoff. I think Ellsbury could end up there by June, but he should not be given anything.

P.S. First time, long time -- been with Nation since 1986 (I was 8)

I admire the Patriots, but I LOVE the Sox.

by sriram12078 on Feb 4, 2008 7:32 PM EST reply actions

Welcome

Totally agree on Coco. I wouldn't mind holding onto him just in case Manny's hammy goes balky again. We should only trade him if we're getting something useful in return, no need to dump just because.

And cool blog. (Don't get creeped out, I found it by clicking on your username). I highly recommend On Hundred Years of Solitude, I liked it much better than Love in the Time of Cholera.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Feb 4, 2008 7:46 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Welcome

Thanks ... been lazy, and my normal subway commute has been interrupted lately, so the best reading time has been harder to come by.

I think Coco should get some value. Not a ton, but something high in either probability or ceiling (to use scouting-speak). Sox have shown good discipline not just dumping him. Tito having too many players to choose from is a good thing, and he has shown a tremendous aptitude for handling his roster and the associated egos. (he is the best manager they have had since i have been following them, the combination of dealing with players and being smart about baseball and knowing to undermanage)

Also liked their signings of Kolb, Miceli. This is how you build a bullpen. Throw capable stuff on the wall (with 1 year deaks), see what sticks. Even if that includes starting Buchholz in the pen as the main righty Paps bridge man (which I think would be completely legitimate depending on how camp shakes out).

I admire the Patriots, but I LOVE the Sox.

by sriram12078 on Feb 4, 2008 8:14 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Welcome

Have to think the primary RH setup job is MDC's to lose. Then Timlin or one of the vets. I don't think the Sox want to start Buch out throwing one inning stints at a time. Wouldn't be able to make him back into a starter this season if they wanted to at that point.

by Allen Chace on Feb 4, 2008 9:41 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Welcome

Nice thing is having the choices. Injuries and deus ex machina tend to iron these things out. I tend to be into the Earl Weaver school here (though very few ML teams agree) that if you have your blue chipper and he does not crack the rotation, grooming him as a set up guy is a good use. You can always convert him if the reason to convert occurs early enough.

I admire the Patriots, but I LOVE the Sox.

by sriram12078 on Feb 4, 2008 9:50 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Welcome

I'm not saying he wouldn't be good in the role, or that he'd crack the rotation. But having him waiting in AAA in case of a Wake or Schilling injury would represent a greater net gain than him in the pen and Hansack or Pauley taking those starts.

by Allen Chace on Feb 4, 2008 10:23 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Welcome

Circling back to the original point. I think Ellsbury should earn his spot. The team has the luxury to not have to give it to him. That said I think Ellsbury will be on the 25-man roster, probably shuttling a lot between the outfield positions. I could see him rotating to RF and Coco coming in to play CF against certain lefties. You figure with the 2500 or so plate appearances among 3 outfield positions they will find Coco and Ellsbury 400 or so apiece at worst.

I admire the Patriots, but I LOVE the Sox.

by sriram12078 on Feb 4, 2008 10:43 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Welcome

Ellsbury/Crisp is a fantasic 4th OF option. There's no particular reason that Coco couldn't get 300 ABs in the outfield as a backup this year.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Feb 5, 2008 9:18 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Welcome

All of our outfielders totaled for almost 2000 ABs last year. If our roster remains the same I predict our 4 outfielders will get:
Drew: 540
Manny: 470
Ellsbury: 440
Crisp: 380
Other: 120

or something like that.

by Schulz on Feb 5, 2008 2:54 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Welcome

I don't agree. When Coco is healthy, he's more than "meh" with the bat.

Otherwise, I agree. We should trade him because he's too valuable to sit on the bench and it's only a matter of time before Ellsbury claims his spot, but we can't trade him if we're not getting high value in return.

by RSNexile on Feb 5, 2008 10:16 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

I'd be fine with that lineup, or with him in 9th, especially at first. On the other hand, I really don't think it's necessary. Any worries about him being in a "pressure" situation and it adversely affecting him should have been put to bed last October. I mean, really, the pressure of April compared to the pressure of the World Series? I think he'll be ok. But then, Scrappy makes a kick ass leadoff hitter too.

I like having these kind of problems.

by B VT on Feb 4, 2008 10:42 PM EST reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

I think he could handle the pressure, I just think in a full season, DP's OBP > Jacoby's OBP

by Allen Chace on Feb 4, 2008 10:43 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

I like:

Pedroia
Youk
Ortiz
Manny
Lowell
Drew
Lugo
Varitek
Ellsbury

I'm not sold Ellsbury is going to be more than an above average centerfielder. Pedroia and Youk have already proven themselves to be on base machines. Ellsbury isn't a particularly patient hitter, but he is a strong BA guy with speed, so he should have a good OBP, but I don't think it will be as good as Youk's or Pedroia's. Anyway, if you bat hit 9th, then most of the game he's actually hitting in front of Pedroia and Youk.

I can't see why people look at Drew as an automatic out. Drew OBP'd .373. Lowell OBP'd .378. They made outs at pretty much the exact same rate. Drew scored 84 runs. Pedroia scored 86, Youk scored 85. His lack of power was disapointing, but he was still a solid on base guy. Ellsbury's career minor league numbers: .314/.390/.426 (.816 OPS). Drew's 2007: 270/.373/.423 (.796 OPS). There's no reason to bury Drew deep in the lineup.

Boo Damon. Cheer Bonds.

by illgamesh on Feb 5, 2008 1:07 AM EST reply actions

Drew walks

Tek DP.

Repeat, rinse.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Feb 5, 2008 1:11 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Drew walks

Following up on what Ilgamesh said, Varitek had a .367 OBP (despite a .255 AVG) last year. He could easily walk also. He grounded into 9 double plays last year, 10 the two years previously.

By contrast, Manny grounded into 21 double plays last year*, 13 in 06 and 20 in 05 (17 in 04, 22 in 03). David Ortiz's highest total is 16, which came last year. Lowell had 19 last year, 22 in 06, and 14 in 05.

*Good for 7th in the league.

by 0157H7 on Feb 5, 2008 11:17 AM EST up reply actions

Ahem

I don't trust books. They're all fact, no heart. And that's exactly what's pulling our country apart today. 'Cause face it, folks; we are a divided nation. Not between Democrats and Republicans, or conservatives and liberals, or tops and bottoms. No, we are divided between those who think with their head, and those who know with their heart.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Feb 5, 2008 10:58 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Ahem

As a journalist, it's not my place to editorialize. I'm here to objectively divide the facts into categories of good and evil, and then you make up your own minds.

by Allen Chace on Feb 6, 2008 1:06 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Ahem

Ha!

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Feb 6, 2008 9:08 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

Are you referring to Ellsbury in terms of his offense relative to the position, or his defense?

Given our last two CFs, him not having a great arm isn't really a factor, and he was applauded as much for (if not moreso) his defense as other aspects of his game. This is why I'm not sure Crisp can win his job back. It's not like Jacoby doesn't have excellent defensive skills.

by Allen Chace on Feb 5, 2008 1:20 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

That last paragraph could have been addressed to most anyone. Crisp is going to have to show something in terms of offense to be the starter. His defense just isn't going to be superior enough to Ellsbury's to outweigh the potential offensive gains.

by Allen Chace on Feb 5, 2008 1:21 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

Amen to everything you just said.
I like the idea of putting a developing prospect who projects to be a leadoff hitter in the 9 hole. You can still give him plenty of time to develop his skills, while in essence, playing him in front of the meat of your line-up.
Also, that is an interesting take on Drew. I didn't realize the statistics ended up like that, so it's a very good comparison.

by Schulz on Feb 5, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

I agree that Ellsbury should start over Crisp. But what are we really expecting from Ellsbury? That he's going to hit .350 with 25 bombs? In over 1000 minor league at bats, he hit .314 with 10 home runs. So I think it's safe to say he's not going to be a big time power threat. He's never been a hugely patient guy, so that limits his upside somewhat, as well. I think he'll probably hit around .290/.360/.410, good for around an .770 OPS, which is good for a centerfielder. A few years he'll hit around .330 and OPS .840. He'll steal 35 bases a year and score from second on singles. But does he have Justin Upton's upside? Jay Bruce's? Cameron Maybin's? Adam Jones's? B.J. Upton's? Curtis Granderson's? Chris Young's? I like him as an above average centerfielder, occasional all-star but I don't see him as being a superstar.

I'd love to be wrong, though.

Boo Damon. Cheer Bonds.

by illgamesh on Feb 5, 2008 1:48 AM EST reply actions

Re: I agree

Thanks for clarifying what you meant, and I 100% agree. His big HR years will be constitute 10-15 HRs, if he does even that. I do think, especially in the first few years of his career (or at least as long as he has "explosive" speed) he'll turn several singles into doubles that not many other players could. Obviously, that'll be balanced out by the fact that he won't hit em as far in general...

by Allen Chace on Feb 5, 2008 1:51 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

I would expect the lineup to be something like Browne had it ... that looked like one of our postseason lineups, and the team is really very similar. What I like is having that good turning over of the lineup. I imagine Lugo is better than he showed the first half of last year.

Really the lineup will hinge on Manny, period. He was the MVP of the offense in the postseason. Once Manny started, well, "being Manny" again, the rest of the lineup just fell into place naturally and became murderously difficult to pitch to.

Pedroia had 47 walks in 570 or so plate appearance (rounding to cover the stuff i can't pull off the web easily), so about 1 per 12 plate appearances. Ellsbury was more like 8 walks in 130 plate appearances, 1 per 16 plate appearances. So while that is a difference in Pedroia's favor, he is no Youk, not by any stretch. Where Pedroia works counts is just his uncanny ability to make contact, especially get the good part of the bat on pitches that he really should not be able to hit with that super long load of his. (like pitches at his shoulder level)

I admire the Patriots, but I LOVE the Sox.

by sriram12078 on Feb 5, 2008 1:52 AM EST reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

Then, would you maybe suggest flipping Youks and DP? It's not like either of them are going to run much anyway.

by Allen Chace on Feb 5, 2008 1:56 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

Well, I tend to think the lineup spots long run don't matter a heckuva lot. Sox won the W.S. with Pedroia leading off, makes sense to me they stick with that. These are the guaranteed

C: Varitek, Mirabelli
1B: Youk, Casey
2B: Pedroia, Cora
SS: Lugo
3B: Lowell
LF: Ramirez
CF: Coco, Ellsbury
RF: Drew
DH: Ortiz

P: Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Lester
LR: Snyder, Tavarez
RHP: Timlin, Delcarmen
LHP: Okajima
Closer: Papelbon

So by my count, 13 position players and 11 pitchers leaves 1 roster position open for camp. My early uneducated guess is that spot could be Brandon Moss'. He makes sense.

I admire the Patriots, but I LOVE the Sox.

by sriram12078 on Feb 5, 2008 9:19 AM EST up reply actions

What I'd like to see

Tavarez traded for a prospect with some potential, Buchholz becomes the long man. It'd be easy to get Buchholz regular work, and it'd allow us to keep his innings down.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Feb 5, 2008 9:21 AM EST up reply actions

Re: What I'd like to see

Best idea I've seen.

by RSNexile on Feb 5, 2008 10:19 AM EST up reply actions

Re: What I'd like to see

Looking at the non-roster invitees, realistically only 2 have a chance to stick with the big club.

Kevin Cash - Mirabelli is probably the guy, but Cash showed no evidence last year in limited time that he couldn't do the job as well.
Danny Kolb - has been successful before as a power sinker machine. Snyder's spot in the pen is certainly not a guarantee.

I guess Javier Lopez could also make the big club, but I doubt it. He is not good enough at his specialized niche to justify carrying him.

I admire the Patriots, but I LOVE the Sox.

by sriram12078 on Feb 5, 2008 11:11 AM EST up reply actions

Re: What I'd like to see

Worse, Lopez is actually better outside his specialized niche.

by RSNexile on Feb 5, 2008 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

Re: What I'd like to see

As poor as Mirabelli is offensively, Cash is even worse. Am I the only one who watched his "Plate Appearances" this season? Horrid, putrid, and the only player who could produce more bile in my throat than the Stud Who Hits Bombs.

Defensively, Cash is every bit as good as 'Belli and can probably handle the knuckler.

by Allen Chace on Feb 5, 2008 3:04 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

I'd LOVE for Coco to stick around as 4th OF...but I just dont get the vibe its going to happen. If we arent getting our next catcher for Coco, then we should keep him this season.

by Matzushocka on Feb 5, 2008 11:24 AM EST reply actions

Re: Browne predicts Pedroia to lead-off

The lower Ellsbury is in the lineup, the more he runs, which I want to see. I think it will be pretty exciting to watch Lugo and Ellsbury dancing around on base in front Pedrioa and Youk. And imagine those days when Coco is subbing in for Manny or Drew. Three legitimate burners in a Sox lineup with a management team that is at least tolerant of using speed.

Another (obvious) argument for keeping Coco: he'd be our first legitimate pinch runner since Mr. Roberts. Or we could keep sending Wakefield out there. If Coco somehow gets us a real catching prospect, I'd make the deal pretty fast. Otherwize I hope he stays.

by alfredoz on Feb 5, 2008 8:35 PM EST reply actions