Coco v. Tacoboy [Promoted Diary]

by tommy.otm on Feb 21, 2008 10:59 AM EST

Via Rob Neyer's insider page at ESPN, I came across this article at Baseball Analysts, where Patrick Sullivan goes over a number of position player battles this ST.

First up, Coco v. Ellsbury:

Boston Center Field - Coco Crisp vs. Jacoby Ellsbury

Crisp Ellsbury
2007 .268/.330/.382 .353/.394/.509
2008 (Pecota) .278/.338/.407 .287/.346/.395
2008 (Zips) .271/.333/.410 .297/.349/.392

This one will be interesting. With Curt Schilling likely out for an extended period of time (if not the entire season), it would not be surprising to see Crisp dealt for starting pitching depth before Opening Day. Barring such a deal, however, Francona will be tested. Crisp is an appalingly frustrating hitter to watch and the vocal Boston fanbase is ready for a change. Not helping his cause is that his fielding prowess is not necessarily discernible to the naked eye. He is one of the very best defensive center fielders in baseball. Furthermore, Ellsbury dazzled in last year's playoffs, and Red Sox fans are chomping at the bit to see the kid get a fulltime shot.

But have a look at the numbers above. Given his superior glovework, Crisp looks like he is the better option. If Theo and the Boston brass stand pat and head into the season with both players on the roster, Francona's resolve will be tested.

I agree with homeboy that Coco is appalling to watch at the plate and a joy to watch in the field. I'd be pleasantly surprised if Coco were to pick up 25-30 points of SLG this year (as PECOTA and ZIPS project, but I'm not very hopeful about it. My guess is that the projections are inflated because they are factoring in his last year in Cleveland as part of their projections.

I think Jacoby will outperform those projections by a bit - though I see his OPS in the high .700s, approaching .800, as opposed to the .900 we saw last year. And everything I've heard about Jacoby is that he will be excellent defensively too, so it won't be too much of a drop from Coco to him.

And then there's the intangibles, which based on last year's playoff performances alone, certainly favor Ellsbury.

Though I have to say, given Coco's potential to make a scene if he's not the starter, it might be worth having Ellsbury ride the pine to keep up Coco's trade value.

Anyways, read the rest of the article, and check out the Baseball Analysts site.

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Re: Coco v. Tacoboy

While I find the projections interesting, I think Ellsbury's on-base numbers look a bit low to me. Ellsbury had a .389 OBP in 3 minor league seasons. His overall minor league numbers are: .313 AVG/.389 OBP/.425 SLG. If healthy, I expect his numbers to closer to these numbers than the Zips or Pecota numbers.

Pedrioa hit .317 AVG/.380 OBP/.442 SLG in his first full season in the majors. In 3 minor league seasons, Scrappy hit a combined .308 AVG/.392 OBP/.453 SLG. Remember Pedroia played the last few months with a wrist injury.

I'll miss Coco's defense. He is easily the best defensive Sox CF I've ever seen. Coco should have won a Gold Glove last year. But, Ellsbury has way more upside. My only worry is Jacoby's durability.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Feb 20, 2008 9:04 PM EST 0 recs

Re: Coco v. Tacoboy

My concern with Jacoby is that he didn't show very much power at AAA, which leads me to believe he was banging the ball into the ground and chugging down the line for a lot of his hits. I'm not sure if he can get away with that in the majors (since the majors have much better fielders).

His AAA numbers:
.298/.360/.380 (.740 OPS)

So both ZIPS and PECOTA project he'll hit for a little more power and a little less average/OBP than he did in AAA.

That makes some sense to me. It doesn't seem likely that a guy could hit .300 without hitting for more power, unless he's swinging at everything. .298/.360/.380... That's a strange profile. This is what I get when I look for 2007 major leaguers with similar profiles:

Sean Casey: .296/.353/.393 - Not a similar player to Ellsbury at all, obviously.

Johnny Damon: .270/.353/.393 - A more similar player, but the split between Damon's BA and SLG is .123, whereas Ellsbury's was .82. Damon's BA vs. OBP is .83, whereas Ellsbury's was .62. Johnny got similar OBP and SLG numbers through patience and power and not batting average and speed.

So Taguchi: .290/.350/.368 - Pretty close numbers, but Taguchi went 7 for 11 in steal attempts over 340 PA, whereas Ellsbury went 33 for 39 in about the same number of PA's. Taguchi never struck me as a particularly speedy player.

Reggie Willits: .293/.344/.391, with 27 steals in 518 at bats. This is probably the closest match of a player with a similar major league profile as Ellsbury's AAA profile. Willits did hit a ton of ground balls, so he's an example of someone playing with a profile similar to that of Ellsbury's AAA.

Looking at Willits ZIPS projection for next year:

.272/.352/.346

So it's pretty tough to imagine Ellsbury keeping up his AAA profile, but I don't think PECOTA is too far off. I could see him outpacing that projection by about 10 point in each category, I don't think it's prudent to project much further. Somewhere around:

.295/.355/.405

Very solid, but not a huge upgrade over Crisp:

.278/.338/.407

And with Crisp's defense being, I think, clearly the best in the league, I'm not sure he's likely to be an upgrade over Crisp at all.

HOWEVER,

That is only for Ellsbury's first year, his 24 age season. Once Ellsbury gets to be Coco's age (28), I don't think lines like this:

.310/.370/.450

Or even:

.330/.420/.500

are out of the question.

Ellsbury is our center fielder of the future, that's for sure. But it's not certain he's really an upgrade this season. I'd rather try to get Crisp's trade value up and move him midseason or next offseason.

Boo Damon. Cheer Bonds.

by illgamesh on Feb 21, 2008 1:29 AM EST 0 recs

Re: Coco v. Tacoboy

Didn't Ellsbury pull his groin when he got to AAA? I seem to remember him having an injury-related slump down there, and maybe missing some time.

In AA in '07 he slugged an outrageous .644, though that was on top of his .452 average. But still, a .192 differential is pretty amazing for a guy not known for power. In AA in '06, he slugged .434, which is probably more in line with what we can expect of him.

And then there's the adjustment he (supposedly) made in late August, when he started driving more from his legs and hitting home runs. 3 in one month in Boston after only hitting 5 in '06 and '07 combined.

I forgive you Bill Buckner.

by tommy.otm on Feb 21, 2008 9:12 AM EST up 0 recs

Re: Coco v. Tacoboy

Was he injured? I did not know that.

I don't put a hell of a lot of stock in "adjustments" "new swings" "seeing the ball better" or "coming to camp in better shape." To me they're all just a way of bored baseball writers making news, or after the fact rationalization of hot streaks.

I'm sure he'll be pretty a special player some day. But maybe not tomorrow.

Boo Damon. Cheer Bonds.

by illgamesh on Feb 21, 2008 10:32 AM EST up 0 recs

Re: Coco v. Tacoboy

Very nice work, illgamesh. I agree that there's no guarantee Ellsbury will be a significant upgrade over Crisp.

One thing I'd point out that Willits' OBP for 2007 was .391, not .344; you switched his OBP and SLG. That's good for 11th among AL batters with at least 400 plate appearances, right above Kevin Youkilis. Willits is basically Youk with way more speed and zero power.
Both Reggie and Jacoby tore through the minors, putting up monstrous OBP, so it's possible they'll have similar trajectories.
Willits' Minor League stats

Jacoby's

Interestingly, Jacoby flashed way more power in his brief major league stint (.509 SLG) than down in Pawtucket. If he can be Reggie Willits with power, he'll be a superstar.

by 0157H7 on Feb 22, 2008 12:24 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: Coco v. Tacoboy [Promoted Diary]

Let's assume for the sake of argument that the Red Sox are unable to find a deal in which they get fair value for Crisp. I'd have no problem naming Coco the "starter" and letting Ellsbury play all 3 OF positions and coming in as a late-inning PH, or defensive replacement, to scrape together 300+ ABs.

Of course, if Coco Crisp can't justify his spot in the lineup and Ellsbury lights it up it will be very difficult for Tito to justify keeping Jacoby as the back-up.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Feb 21, 2008 1:19 PM EST 0 recs

Re: Coco v. Tacoboy [Promoted Diary]

I read the linked article. I don't understand the "potential to make a scene" comment. Crisp wasn't out of pocket at all.

Ellsbury was great when he played but his defense wasn't that impressive. Time will tell what type of player he becomes & whether he is durable.

If Coco does not produce then he should justifiably lose his spot but it should be based on more than the end of last season.

by MassGal on Feb 21, 2008 2:31 PM EST 0 recs

I did say "potential"

He's already said he won't be happy as a back-up. It's not a guarantee that he'll go psycho, but the last two Sox who've made similar comments were Payton and Hillenbrand. Coco's certainly a lot more cheery than either of those guys. But even cowboy upping, happy-go-lucky, team-first Millar made enough of a stink about his lack of playing time that he wore out his welcome with the FO. And Millar wasn't even moved to the bench, he just had to share a little more than he wanted to.

So yes, there is the potential that Coco will make a scene.

I forgive you Bill Buckner.

by tommy.otm on Feb 21, 2008 7:58 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: I did say "potential"

I still don't get your point or if there is one...Hillenbrand, Millar, Payton have nothing to do with Crisp. I kinda think Millar wore out his welcome because he wasn't that good; and if Crisp doesn't produce then he should go but back to this...

The "potential" to make a scene is there for anyone in any situation. In this case Crisp was asked about playing time & answered "calmly" according to the article.

It goes without saying that a veteran, and a player as young as Crisp wants to play every day so perhaps the reporter should have refrained from asking a "potentially" inflammatory question when he/she knew the answer was as obvious as the day is long.

by MassGal on Feb 21, 2008 9:35 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: I did say "potential"

Unhappy campers can poison a clubhouse. That's the only point.

I forgive you Bill Buckner.

by tommy.otm on Feb 21, 2008 10:27 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: I did say "potential"

OK...you can have the last word..it's your post afterall but your choice of words was in a word "jacked".

by MassGal on Feb 22, 2008 5:56 AM EST up 0 recs

Re: I did say "potential"

Kevin Millar, if you look back was actually quite good in '03 and '04 considering we scooped him up en route to exile in Japan.

03: .276/.348/.472, good for .820 OPS.
04: .297/.383/.474, good for .857 OPS.

In '05 his power dropped through the floor.

05: .272/.355/.399, good for .754 OPS.

I think Millar wore out his welcome because he was mouthy and Youkilis was better (both offensively and defensively), not because he was a truly awful player.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Feb 22, 2008 12:49 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: Coco v. Tacoboy [Promoted Diary]

I keep reading comments about Ellsbury's "upside," but none of them ever address the weird little imponderables he brings to the game with his blazing speed. He messes up normal infield defensing,....he breaks up routine DP's,... he messes with pitchers' minds when on base,... he screws up the opposing OF normal routine of where to hit the cut-off man. Ellsbury is not just "speedy,".... he is lightning fast, and he uses it. A ground ball to the infield that bounces more than once might end up being an infield single. He has redefined the double as anything that gets past the infield. I'm certainly hoping that his off-season strength training will produce 15-20 HR, but his speed, coupled with his slapshot hitting style will not only be an effective complement to Boston's offense, but extremely entertaining from a fan perspective,.... That said, I see Ells going .310-15-75 with an OBP of .380 and 35 SB. And throwing opposing pitching and defenses seriously off stride,.....and THAT is the true upside of what he brings to the game.

by Parisle on Feb 21, 2008 10:00 PM EST 0 recs

Re: Coco v. Tacoboy [Promoted Diary]

I agree with everything you say. He certainly brings a similar type of fear to the other team as an Ichiro, which is very exciting. I also believe he will get those numbers, I just don't know if he will get them this year. I see .300-8-55 with OBP of .370 and 30 SB this year and then next year numbers very similar to yours. This is of course with the assumption that he starts fulltime and does not get injured.

by drabidea on Feb 22, 2008 9:04 AM EST up 0 recs

Re: Coco v. Tacoboy [Promoted Diary]

Great points, Ellsbury's speed brings a little extra to the table when comparing him and Crisp. CBSsporstline projects almost identical seasons for these two:

Ellsbury vs. Crisp

Avg .280/.280
OBP .337/.329
SLG .397/.409

AB 464/460
HR 4/9
R 70/70
RBI 58/50
SB 26/23

I think Crisp will be as motivated as ever at the plate this spring. With Ellsbury ready to play, Coco will do everything he can offensively to make his case as a starter, and we may see what we thought we were getting after acquiring him from Cleveland.
I say give Crisp 60%-70% of the playing time in CF for the time being. If he sucks, Ellsbury starts and we try to unload Crisp / keep him as our 4th OF. If he is good, we have 2 CF with huge trade value, and we find a team that wants one.

by Schulz on Feb 22, 2008 12:06 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: Coco v. Tacoboy [Promoted Diary]

The 4-OF revolving platoon system has a lot of logic to it,.... particularly with the four players in the Sox OF. I'd like to hang onto Crisp and work him into the mix somehow,... I think his offensive numbers will go up a little,... he seems to be motivated. If Ellsbury is the rotating outfielder, that's fine,.. he'll get in plenty of game time. Both Drew and Manny could be injury-prone, and the 4th spot could easily become fulltime.

by Parisle on Feb 22, 2008 1:16 PM EST 0 recs

Re: Coco v. Tacoboy [Promoted Diary]

By the by, Bobby Kielty is on a minor league contract, so we can stash him down in Pawtucket and have Coco or Ellsbury as the 4th OF.

by 0157H7 on Feb 22, 2008 1:59 PM EST 0 recs

Re: Coco v. Tacoboy [Promoted Diary]

While I like to err on the conservative side, I can't help but believe Ellsbury is going to have a breakout season right off the bat. He just seems to be that kind of player,... Maybe he'll only hit .285,.... but it also wouldn't surprise me if he hit .325. It's gonna be an exciting year,... the Red Sox are in good shape.

by Parisle on Feb 22, 2008 2:53 PM EST 0 recs

No power?

A lot of the anti-Jacoby crowd says he has no power (2 homers in AAA, 3 in the majors this year), but he said that over the offseason he spent a lot of time with weights to get more homer power and just more strength in general.

In terms of the starting job, I wouldn't be surprised if Coco gets the job out of the gate and is on a different team come May or June. They might have Jacoby start the year as the 4th OF or in AAA, to give him more time to work out the kinks in his hitting and improve his defense so it's not a huge step down from Coco (who, yes, had an amazing defensive season this year).

by Liza on Feb 24, 2008 1:22 PM EST 0 recs

Re: Coco v. Tacoboy [Promoted Diary]

--- 4th OF maybe, but I scarcely see Jacoby starting the season at Pawtucket. For one thing, the fans would be incensed. Ells has already achieved something of a cult status in Boston, eh? And for another thing, I think he's already too valuable to the club. Regular- and post-season, he had something like 140 AB,.. a reasonable test. I think he passed the test.

by Parisle on Feb 24, 2008 6:11 PM EST 0 recs