10 million a year is CRAZY for a relief pitcher with four years under our control.  Considering what Rivera + Ryan made in their recent deals,  I think  Papelbon is likely to make:

9. 500,000
   
10. 3,500,000
    
11. 8,000,000
    
12. 9,000,000
    

Free Agency

13. 10,000,000
    
14. 10,000,000
    
15. 10,000,000
    
16. 10,000,000
    
17. 10,000,000

Which ends up being 6,200,000 a year over the next 5 years.

If we were to sign him to a 5 year deal, I probably wouldn't go any higher than about 22,000,000 over 5 years, which is only 10 or so million less over that period than he would make if we didn't resign him.  If he throws out his arm this year, that's about 20,000,000 more than he would make.  Right now, we've got the upper hand and it would be crazy to sign him long term for anything more than 25 million.

If it were me, I wouldn't even consider giving him a multi-year deal until after the 2010 season.