With Penny, is Red Sox starting 5 the best?
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 1:24 AM EST
144 comments
Now that Brad Penny has signed with the Nation, Is Penny and Wakefield better than the Yankees or Rays 4th/5th starter? Do the Redsox have the best starting rotation in the bigs? Seriously, no homer replys :) OK but make your case.
I know these are fighting words, but if Andy Pettitte returns to the Bronx, maybe the Yankees will have a better starting 5? Hell, if the Cubs get Peavy, maybe the Northsiders will be kings of the hill. Hell, even without Jake the Cubs look good. I like the Penny signing, I wish the Royals would have gotten him. For 8 million, they could afford that. But Penny is now with the Fenway Faithful. Is this the guy that make the Red Sox solid 1-5?
Don't let the name fool you. Since the early 80s, I have loved the Cubbies, Red Sox & Royals. I've been to Wrigley hundreds of times, Fenway a handful, and looking forward to visiting KC for the first time this summer. Can't wait for the season to start.
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The Rays right now have the best rotation in baseball
That is, unless Price collapses, Garza and Shields come back to Earth and Kazmir continue to decline. They seem, somehow, to have less question marks than we do.
I’d say both rotations are stronger than the Yankees or the Cubs.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Dec 30, 2008 11:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Is Price a starter yet?
Can’t assume he’ll succeed based on a few innings (and I mean FEW) as a reliever and 1 start, IIRC.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 30, 2008 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, we can
He has wonderful stuff. But, as I said, he might struggle. Like Buchholz did.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Dec 30, 2008 8:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep.
I’m not big on assuming success, cause then the failure is compounded by looking like an @$$.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 30, 2008 11:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Price is as "can't miss" as we've seen since Prior
So injuries could derail him, but I see him at worst 160 IP and 110 ERA+ and most likely much better than that in ERA.
by BTLove on Dec 31, 2008 2:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes and no
no prospect is can’t miss. I agree that Price has terrific stuff, and seems totally unperturbable, but you never know. He zipped through the minors, and there he did show a few bad tendancies, like tipping off his change and occasional bad footwork (very occasional). Look at his AA numbers (smaaaaaall sample alert): 57 innings 7 HR. I did not see him pitch of course, but the word was that his arm slot on the change was not good. Very correctable, and he has monster stuff with that slider, but let’s see.
by Buzzy on Dec 31, 2008 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also, wasn't Buch also "can't miss"?
He’s a bust so far, IMO.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 31, 2008 11:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This isn't football or basketball
A guy isn’t a bust after one fucking year.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Jan 1, 2009 8:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He hasn't been good outside of the no-hitter.
And that wasn’t exactly against the best team either.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 1, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he has
pitched fewer than 100 total MLB innings, and his numbers in those innings are similar to Lester’s at that stage. In fact last year he had a truly unlucky BABIP, his FIP was 4.82 while Masterson’s was 4.69, and he struck out one batter per inning. While indeed he lost control of his mechanics to a degree, and it may well be that he never pans out, to give up on him at this stage based on any real evidence would be absolutely criminal.
by Buzzy on Jan 1, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm quick to judge, I guess.
If he becomes a decent pitcher, I’ll be one of his biggest proponents, after apologizing for my bad judgment.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 1, 2009 8:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes and no...
Yes Buch rose to prominence after some great work in the minors, but he was never in the David Price/ Mark Prior stratosphere for prospects. Prior was in the majors a few months after being drafted and Price probably would have been if the Rays rotation wasn’t so good and healthy all year. Those guys (and a few others who I can’t think of) are in a whole other echelon.
by BTLove on Jan 2, 2009 1:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who is the 5th starter for the Rays?
If healthy Penny can help make the RedSox starting rotation the best in baseball.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 11:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Rotations
Rays: Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Sonnanstine, Price
Sox: Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Penny, Wake.
Yanks: CC, Wang, Burnett, Joba, Kennedy (Pettitte?)
Cubs: Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Harden, Marquis.
All very good. I would rank them: Sox, Rays, MFY, Cubs. These are probably the four best rotations in baseball. I found some interesting results when I looked up pitching stats by team. The top ten teams by ERA are: Blue Jays, Dodgers, Rays, Brewers, Cubs, Pillies, D-Backs, Angels, Red Sox, A’s. Obviously this includes the bullpen, but I was surprised at these results.
by Schulz on Dec 30, 2008 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yanks better than Cubs rotation?
Hell remove Marquis, and I hope we do ,and put in Marshall and the Cubs have a better starting 5 than the Yanks
Sonnanstine/Price vs Buch/Penny I’ll go with Sox on that one
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think so
last year’s FIP:
Zambrano-4.29
Harden-3.10
Lilly-4.45
Dempster-3.46
Marquis-4.57
Sabathia-3.48/2.51
Wang-3.81
Burnett-3.52
Pettite-3.74
Chamberlain-2.66
How are the Cubs better (assuming each top 5 can toss 940-1000 innings which is a big if for both)? The Yankees staff is significantly better. And no, Chamberlain’s FIP is still way low even if you remove the relief innings. If you do the same analysis I think you will find that the Rays are also project to be better than the Sox, but it is not so clear, and a lot can happen as these are all good staffs.
by Buzzy on Dec 30, 2008 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Put the Cubs in the AL
And I don’t think that their rotation stacks up against the Rays, Sox, and Yankees. It’s hard to pick amongst the three AL East rotations. I think we’re undervaluing the Yankees rotation. It’s really good on paper, at least until Burnett gets hurt.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Dec 30, 2008 1:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Joba
Joba will either have to throw softer and get hit harder or he will be a frequent member of the DL.
by Gnick on Dec 30, 2008 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Put the RedSox Yanks & Rays in the NL
and they’re better? With that argument it’s even.
They lose a DH ~ Cubs gain a DH. Cubs line up with a regular DH will be stack against anyone.
Really now
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
??
what does that have to do with the rotation? In my post above-just look at CC’s FIP split between the leagues to get the idea about what league it should be easier to pitch in. Guys like CC go to the NL and dominate bigtime. Name one NL pitcher that went to the AL and dominated recently? You are not arguing that the NL is on par with the AL, are you? Just look at the interleague splits, they massively favor the AL. And the ALeast is the best league in baseball.
by Buzzy on Dec 30, 2008 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just referring to SoxDevil's Comment
Name one NL pitcher that went to the AL and dominated recently?
How bout two?
Schilling & Beckett
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would not say they
dominated. Schilling was clearly better (but younger) in the NL. Beckett’s 07 was probably his best year, but not so dissimilar from numbers in 03, or his 05.
by Buzzy on Dec 30, 2008 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You asked for 1 year and yes they dominated
With Schilling or Beckett, 2004 or 2007 would not have happened!
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I meant WITHOUT
Curt and/or Josh the RedSox would not have won either WS
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 3:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
got it-
I just would not call those dominant years. They are very good years that are similar or worse than their best years in the NL. Schilling in 2001 was dominant-he struck out 293 guys. In 2004-203 (in 30 fewer innings). Last year, CC’s NL line was sick, and he posted a 260 ERA+.
by Buzzy on Dec 30, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think
that these kind of “league-switching” arguments can go both ways. Barry Zito did BY FAR better in the American League than in the National League, and in the NL he pitched in the most pitcher-friendly division in baseball. Javier Vasquez has pitched in both leagues, but his stats tell that he favors the NL. Then there are guys like CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett, and AJ Burnett that have pitched well in both leagues. I could have tried to pick better examples, but I kind of wrote this fast.
by DirtySouthSox on Dec 30, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
true
but I think most people would agree that it is generally harder to pitch in the AL. BTW-Pedro “came over” from the NL and absolutely dominated in the AL. You see more cases of guys like Lowe, Pettite and Clemens going to the NL as older guys and pitching beyond what they did in the AL. The lineups are deeper in the AL (and not just because there is a DH) and less “smallball” is played.
by Buzzy on Dec 30, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
does FIP take into account league?
I thought it did. Then this argument is dumb. Just look at the numbers. Obviously the AL is harder to pitch in. We have DH’s.
by BTLove on Dec 31, 2008 2:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What happened to Zito?
Maybe Randy can straighten him out
Unless San Francisco gets a hold of Randy first
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pedro
In 1998 (kinda recent) when he came over from Montreal. I think a 2nd place finish in CYA voting would probably fall into the “Domination” category…
by A2004LoveAffair on Dec 31, 2008 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Pedro is more of an exception
Is CC Sabathia a HOF pitcher? Too soon to tell. Pedro Martinez is one of the all-time greats.
On average, the difference between pitching in the AL and NL is 1 ER.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Dec 31, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pedro
Very well might have been the best pitcher of all time. Check out 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002, and 2003. 2000 Might have been the best season by a pitcher ever, his ERA+ was 291! Sandy Koufax never broke 200, Bob Gibson never came within 40 points of that, Cy Young broke 200 once, and it was below 220, Tom Seaver and Steve Carlton never broke 200, Walter Johnson broke 200 four times, but that’s one less than Pedro, and he never had a season close to Pedro’s 2000.
by Gnick on Dec 31, 2008 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pedro
was the filthiest man ever to take the hill. Close 2nd would be Koufax and Gibson.
Santana has the type of stuff to be Pedro-lite.
by SoxAcumen on Dec 31, 2008 6:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Santana has the stuff, but Pedro was a crazy motherfucker
There won’t be a second coming of Pedro, he’s very much unique.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Dec 31, 2008 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great call my friend
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 31, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes
didn’t I mention this yesterday (see above somewhere). He was the Cy of the NL in 1997 I think-he dominated both leagues and was certainly the best pitcher I ever saw.
by Buzzy on Dec 31, 2008 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
One of the best in this generation. The top tier would be Maddux, Randy, and Pedro. Then Glavine, Smoltz, Schill, and guys like that. Pedro was an absolute beast.
p.s. I didn’t count Roger cause he’s a liar, a cheat, and basically a clown.
by DirtySouthSox on Dec 31, 2008 5:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would think that Halladay dramatically lowered the Jays' ERA.
And does that include Burnett?
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 30, 2008 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
RAYS 1 HIT WONDERS?
Can Rays repeat OR even defend the east crown this season
against the improved & stonger Yankee & Red Sox’ teams
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair
V-Ice had two hits…Ice, Ice, Baby and Play that funky Music
by SoxAcumen on Dec 30, 2008 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Play that Funky Music?
Hardly a hit
Even that was a rip-off just like LICE LICE LICE BABY
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 8:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Uhh... it was in "Evolution."
Obviously, it was a hit. EVERYTHING in that movie was a hit. /sarcasm (or is it?…)
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 30, 2008 11:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Play that Funky Music was Definitly a hit.
C’mon. Who doesn’t know the words to that song?
by BTLove on Dec 31, 2008 2:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Politically correct people.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 31, 2008 11:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
5th
David Price should be able to toss about 150 innings. I think if healthy, and with a resigned Pettite, the Yankees (and the Rays) have a better rotation, but not by a whole lot. I think the problem for the Sox is the back end of the rotation, even with Penny. If Penny returns to form, and Buchholz/Bowden pitch quality innings back there there are absolutely no problems.
by Buzzy on Dec 30, 2008 12:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Disagree about the Yanks
I just don’t think CC/Burnett/Wang beats Beckett/Lester/Dice-K.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Dec 30, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That is reasonable
but if the Yankees resign Pettite and Chamberlain stays healthy and tosses 130 innings the back end of their rotation is significantly stronger. Penny and Wake are reasonably big question marks. Wake’s FIP was bad last year, and Penny was hurt and awful. On the other hand, Pettite was simply unlucky (good FIP/high BAPIP) and Joba, while not going deep in games, was nasty. I think the question marks for both teams are:
Yankees
1)Will AJ stay (more or less) healthy?
2)Will Chamberlain stay healthy?
3)How many innings will Chamberlain go?
4)How successful will the filler (Hughes?) be at the back end when needed?
For the Sox:
1)Has Beckett recovered?
2)What will be the effects of large innings increase on Lester?
3)Just how lucky was DiceK last year?
4)How bad will Wake be?
5)Penny…???
6)Will Buchholz rebound?
Sorry, I think those are even bigger questions for the Sox. It is time to be honest about the Yankees rotation-with Pettite and some health it is damn good. Further, they would have 2 lefties to our one, which is also an advantage in the AL east.
by Buzzy on Dec 30, 2008 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I can answer #3 for the Sox
Dice-K is lucky, but its more about how Japanese pitchers are taunt to pitch. They never give in to batters and would rather give up walks then groove a fastball.
Dice-K is a very smart pitcher and I can see him having another 17,18 or even 19 or 20 game season with the offensive production and defense the Red Sox bring each game. He reminds me of a sinkerballer.
by SoxAcumen on Dec 30, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice call!
I rather be lucky than good
But he’s both Good & Lucky
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with Buzzy. Rec'd
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Dec 31, 2008 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry
I completely 100% agree with MerryGoByeBye, though you made a good argument for the Yanks. I just think that overall the Sox have more depth, youth, and potential for immediate success.
by DirtySouthSox on Dec 30, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2 lefties will not make a difference
look at the lifetime BA against Lefties
maybe even against Andy
Bay
Lowell
Youk
Pedoria
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BTW
I was not neglecting Wake, just think in the end Buch/Bowden will see action in the 4/5 slot.
by Buzzy on Dec 30, 2008 12:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wakefield is through!
I am very serious here. How he pitched at the end of last year has absolutely convinced me beyond any doubt that Wakefield is one of the worst potential pitchers now in baseball. Because of that, it is tantamount to an oxymoron to say that the Sox may have the best starting 5 with this character still in the rotation! ERRRRR.
by NG on Dec 30, 2008 3:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
HUH?
So 10 wins and 180 IP sucks from your #5
His job is to keep his team in the game, eat innings, not wipe out the offense
He’s not your #4 plus give a few starts to Bucholz & Bowden
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
don't discuss wake with NG
everyone here has presented arguments in Wake’s favor better than yours. It won’t matter. He thinks Wake is done.
by BTLove on Dec 31, 2008 2:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wow rude comments are always well taken
Where is the Love BT?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 31, 2008 3:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think BT just means that we’ve discussed the Wake subject ad nauseum this winter.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Dec 31, 2008 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not a part of it
but thanks for clarifying
My question though is if the RedSox have the beststarting 5 in the bigs
not just the 5th spot for the RedSox alone
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 31, 2008 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry man
Not that your argument was bad. It was accurate. just that many people have presented very thorough Wake arguments with NG. None will work. Didn’t mean to come off as much of a dick as I did.
by BTLove on Dec 31, 2008 9:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
its all good much love to the nation
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Jan 2, 2009 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of NG and Wake.
Can we set up some guidelines to the bet? It’s kinda unclear how we are deciding who wins. Is it if Wake is still a starter by the end of the season? Does an injury affect either way?
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 30, 2008 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What if Tim moves up, will that still be ok?
Wakefield can move up to #3 if both Beckett & Penny go down.
Bad Karma, please NO!
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 6:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What?
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 30, 2008 8:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How about this?
If he either does not start either at the beginning of the year OR SOON AFTER THE SEASON BEGINS, or is taken out of the rotation after he DOES MAKE SOME starts because of poor performance or injury due to his age condition(because he is old)! Any of these and I win. If he makes it to the end of the season starting and with a winning record, you win!
by NG on Dec 30, 2008 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why the winning record?
What if he ends the season with a 13-13 or so record? I’d call that “making it through the season.”
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 30, 2008 8:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
WOW 13 wins
From your 5th, er 6-7th starter
Wakefield? THE SAME GUY THAT HAS AVERAGED 12 WINS THE LAST 7 YEARS
Come on WAKE UP IT’S WAKEFIELD :)
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If he's averaged 12 wins a year, why would 13 be a stretch?
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 30, 2008 11:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BECAUSE IT'S UNLUCKY!!!11!!!@
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Dec 31, 2008 11:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh crap.
Okay, if he goes 23-23 then.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 31, 2008 11:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh Noes!!!11!!!
That’s even worse. See here.
And in regards to that movie, this is funny.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Dec 31, 2008 11:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That was the joke.
I can’t watch Jim Carrey in serious movies. He’s done too much comedy.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 31, 2008 11:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I kinda liked the truman show
Not because of any spectacular Jim Carrey acting, but because the idea was cool.
by Schulz on Jan 3, 2009 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
COMEDY ACTORS DOING SERIOUS ROLES?
Sometimes just doesn’t work.
Just saw portions of Reign Over Me with Adam Sandler.
I just couldn’t do it. I just kept thinking about Waterboy
No son of mine is gonna play any foos-ball.
or when Fouts & Musburger are broadcasting the game:
Dan Fouts: Bobby Boucher sure knocked the poop out of him.
Brent Musburger: [Looks at Dan] Poop?
Hopefully Sandler picked up a few acting tips from Don Cheadle.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Jan 4, 2009 9:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like Reign Over Me
Don Cheadle is the man.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Jan 4, 2009 9:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah but Sandler was NOT convincing enough
Don Cheadle IS the man.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Jan 4, 2009 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Punch Drunk Love with Sandler was really good, and he was really good in it.
by BTLove on Jan 6, 2009 6:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
THANKS! Funny stuff, but
The 23 spoof was a bit too long,
like 47 seconds too long
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Jan 4, 2009 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If his win-loss STARTING record is tied,
but all the other conditions are met, I will give you the win. He has to stay in the rotation as a starter and finish the year with a winning or tied record!
by NG on Jan 5, 2009 10:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Okay.
How long does the loser have to change his icon for? I’d say a week.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 6, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say forever, so let's compromise with one season (baseball season!)
by NG on Jan 7, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If it's going to be that long, we might have to show our hands, in terms of our planned icon.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 7, 2009 7:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have no plans yet BUT
I know I am going to win, so I better begin thinking what I will use for you! Hmmmmm.
by NG on Jan 7, 2009 9:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
can't both (OR ALL) of those things happen?
He starts the season: POINT
He’s old: POINT
He gets taken out of the rotation/poor performance: POINT
He’s old: POINT
Gets back into the rotaion: POINT
Did I mention he’s old
Has a winning season: POINT
Now. how is that a bet?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dude, our bet. Stop screwing with it.
The bet is that I believe Wake will “make it through the season.” NG doesn’t. The loser has to change his icon/avatar to something of the winner’s choice. We need to define “mak[ing] it through the season” and decide how long we have to keep the new icon if we lose.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 30, 2008 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just want to make sure that you guys are clear with your bet
So let’s just be clear.
You think that Wake is gonna make it through the season
and that NG will not make it through the season. Right?:)
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 11:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
But we haven’t clarified exactly how to decide if he made it or not.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 31, 2008 12:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Read my quote again
I think you missed it
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 31, 2008 12:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say
More than 15 stats would be the best way to decide.
by Gnick on Dec 31, 2008 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Couldn't he make 15 at the beginning of the season, and then get demoted?
Maybe 2 starts in September, or in the last month before a possible season ending injury, not related to aging?
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 31, 2008 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that's
just NG-he has a real thing for Wakefield!
by Buzzy on Dec 30, 2008 3:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
What A Knuckle-Head
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The red sox have the best 1-8
Josh Beckett, Jon Lester,Daisuke Matsuzaka,Brad Penny,Tim Wakefield,Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden,Clay Buchholz. We have more depth at pitcher than any other team.
by Red Sox #1 Fan on Dec 30, 2008 3:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
1-8?
Does that mean middle relief or spot starters when guys go on the DL?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
People get hurt
If (when) a MFY starter gets hurt, who do they plug in? We have Buch and Bowden waiting in addition to Masterson. I expect one of those three to be in the rotation by mid-July.
by BTLove on Dec 31, 2008 2:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good enough for me
Starters go down all the time you need a 6-8
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 31, 2008 3:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
Hughes first, then Aceves. Both are capable, and Hughes looked awsome at the end of his stint in the AFL, but who can tell from that # of innings. I agree for sure we have more pitching depth, but if Masterson starts in the pen he stays there, since otherwise he will have to stretch his arm out like Joba did, which I don’t think we can afford during the season.
by Buzzy on Dec 31, 2008 9:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but who would be your 5th?
Deeper rotation is a plus
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am guessing but:
Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Penny, Wake with Bowden and Buchholz being the fill, spot starters.
Also, something is making me think the Sox will sign or trade for another vet arm by All Star break. Schilling, Smoltz or maybe a Roy Oswalt trade.
by SoxAcumen on Dec 30, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Houston giving up on Roy?
He’s the arm of the franchise
No way, really?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am just speculating. I have heard for the past 2 years that he is available for the right price. What that price is? who knows…
by SoxAcumen on Dec 30, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It would be nice
I agree with you that Theo & the Boys are not ever done looking for more help on the hill.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wake 5th
If he sucks Bowden and Buchholz in combinational role at 5, and if injuries happen rotate Bowden, Buchholz, and Masterson to sure up the rotation and not blow their arms up.
by Red Sox #1 Fan on Dec 30, 2008 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Be less opiniated.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 30, 2008 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
HE MEANS WELL
or he’s well at being mean
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 8:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was going to say "Be more opinionated," but I thought he might not pick up the sarcasm.
Easier just to put my message in Laymen’s Terms.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 30, 2008 11:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're one funny dude
I can’t say if you really, really hate Wakefield, or if you’re just screwing with us. Too close to tell.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Dec 30, 2008 9:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think he hates him.
He’s just frustrated that an old guy is out there performing better than he ever could. (I kid.)
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 30, 2008 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like him
13 wins is not a stretch
But I think Theo is not done…
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 11:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Umm... he meant NG.
Click on the “up” button on his comment and you’ll see who it was in response to.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 31, 2008 12:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Suggested NG and Bsetcetera bet parameters.
NG wins if: Wake ends the season with: <6 IP/start and <25 GS
BSetcetera wins if: Wake meets or beats those numbers (6 IP/start and 25 GS).
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"
by Allen Chace on Dec 31, 2008 2:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think
If he gets 24 starts he would have still “made it through the season”. I’d set the number lower, maybe higher than the 15 I first suggested, perhaps 20.
by Gnick on Dec 31, 2008 5:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
20 sounds about right.
He averages 28 starts every 162 games, and has had around 30 starts every year (except 2006 – injury) since becoming a full time starter for the Sox. 20 would be assuming he doesn’t have an injury that would put him on the 60 day DL.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 31, 2008 11:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is you and NG, of course
But my two cents is that >10 starts that the Sox would have to fill in for Wake would constitute a serious bout of injury or ineffectiveness, which I think is the whole point of NG’s..crusade.
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"
by Allen Chace on Jan 2, 2009 5:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep.
Just going off the average of 8 games every 9 days, and 1 start per 5 games. 0.888*60= 53 (ish). 53/5= 10(ish).
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 3, 2009 8:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Suggested consequences of bet.
If NG loses, he will:
- Write an encomium, praising Wakefield in all his glory.
- Post only positive comments for a period of five (5) days. Comments should be warm, glowing, and inspire cheer and goodwill towards all aging / declining Sox players.
If BSetc. loses, he will:
- Limit his posting on OTM to one (1) comment, fanpost, or fanshot per day, for a period of five (5) business days.
- Write an encomium praising NG for his insight and acumen. Be sure to use John the Baptist analogy (“voice of one, crying in the wilderness”).
[No Purchase necessary. See www.irs.gov for complete rules and regulations. Offer void in Hawaii, Alaska or Quebec.]
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Dec 31, 2008 11:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Aww... wait that would actually not be too much of a down grade.
I plan on taking a full schedule of AP classes next school year, or as many as possible, so I might become scarce next fall. I think the consequences are good as they are – change of icon/avatar to a pic of the winner’s choice for [a certain time period].
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 31, 2008 11:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The loser
Should have to write a fanpost of no shorter than 300 words on why Scott Brosius belongs in the Hall of Fame.
by Gnick on Jan 1, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
HAHA
Holy crap that’s a good one. I hate Scott Brocius!
by DirtySouthSox on Jan 1, 2009 11:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can do that now:
Because I said so. Because I said so. Because I said so. Because I said so. Because I said so….
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 3, 2009 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My recommendations
If NG wins, this.
If bs.uf15bosox9bears23 wins, this.
Would that be too cruel?
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Jan 2, 2009 7:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
DAMN YOU!!!
Naw, if NG loses, it’s gonna be Wake’s head pasted on this pic:
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 3, 2009 8:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Look! ... There on the field! ...
It’s a Curve! It’s a Slider! It’s a KNUCKLEBALL!!
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Jan 3, 2009 10:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd.
You should get payed for that stuff. And you’re welcome for the set-up.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 4, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kind of a late response, but I have been traveling.
For Wakefield to just pitch a lot of games is not a sign of success. If he starts 24 games but because of managerial stupor or deviousness he ends up losing 23 of them, well that is no win in my betting life! Somehow a conglomeration of games played and a winning record, as I tried to show in my post, must be met.
by NG on Jan 7, 2009 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
If he’s still pitching through the beginning of September, and is within 5 games of .500?
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 7, 2009 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds good.
So if he’s pitching by the beginning of September, and has a record of within 2 games of .500, the loser has to change their icon till next October (2010). Agree?
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 8, 2009 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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