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Don't sign Brian Fuentes.

Mlb_g_fuentes_300_medium

via assets.espn.go.com

So in the wake of not signing Teixeira, (btw: interesting take on the Yankees and money on BTF) many overreacted and apparently decided we should spend some or all of the money earmarked for Tex somewhere, and this guy was suggested as a recipient of some of that money.

I'm going to ignore a few possible assumptions about Brian Fuentes for the time being.

1. He wants to close

2. ...on a contender.

3. He'd be worth giving up our first pick in the draft.

In other words, let's look at this as purely a cost-benefit scenario for the Sox.

In 2008, Fuentes was actually 5th among qualified RPs in FIP, behind two other guys questionable to repeat such performances (Grant Balfour, Hong-Chih Kuo) and two guys who've been among the standard setters for RPs the last few years (one for much longer: Mariano Rivera and Paps). Great company to be in, right? Balfour and Kuo COULD be one-year wonders, but their performances in 2008 were certainly excellent. With Fuentes, however, we've got a bit of history to go on regarding how long he's been considered among closers/premier RPs.

With regard to FIP, his company in 2007 included pitchers like Jamie Walker, Oscar Villarreal, Chad Cordero, and Chris Bootcheck amongst others. Not an "awful" reliever in the bunch, but not exactly premier talent either. 2006? Scott Proctor, John Grabow, Hector Carrasco, Chad Paronto, and Bill Bray amongst others. Again. We're not talking anyone who's going to kill your bullpen, certainly no absolute gas cans in the mix. And his first season as closer, 2005? Michael Wuertz, Jeff Fassero, Doug Brocail, Derrick Turnbow, Akinori Otsuka and Roberto Hernandez.

It's not as though the team that signs Fuentes is going to have a timebomb on their hands: it's that they probably should've just signed Bobby Howry or Jeremy Affeldt a long time ago for less. It's not as though the Mets wouldn't be better off health-wise with Fuentes, it's that if you want dominance from the position, you're much better off with K-Rod and his eventual TJ surgery bill, with Putz as a very viable insurance option.

The point is, even as a setup man, Fuentes will get, at least, mid-tier closer money and length. He's simply not worth it, so let's just ignore him until he eventually, hopefully, signs with someone else.

Now, let's add in a couple of those assumptions I dismissed earlier.

1. He wants to close.

And maybe he should be able to. There are certainly contenders or near-contenders for whom he'd be an improvement over their closer situation. However, the Sox have three relievers (Oki, MDC, Ramirez) who would likely be within spitting distance of Fuentes's results closing if Paps does go down with injury. He also might sign and acknowledge that he'd be taking a backseat to Paps, but he could be disappointed with a role as the secondary LH setup man.

3. He'd be worth giving up our first pick in the draft.

No.

 

I hope this helped clear things up for anyone who still wants Brian Fuentes, Red Sox RP, to become a reality. 

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I Agree-

are there any indications that the Sox are really considering him? Seems like a really bad idea. Would the idea be to chuck J-Lo and use Fuentes as a L-specialist? Seems expenisve, not a role he would want. On the otherhand, I see him as no better than 4 other relievers already on the team not named Papelbon.

by Buzzy on Dec 29, 2008 8:41 PM EST reply actions  

The idea would be

I think, to get him as Paps’ top setup man. Except that MDC, Ramirez, and Oki are all fairly safe bets to at least match his inning-by-inning production. And also that Tito isn’t averse to somewhat playing favorites, so even if Fuentes true talent level is his 2008 performance (unlikely), he’d still take a backseat to Oki most of the time.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Dec 29, 2008 8:53 PM EST up reply actions  

And...

Masterson looks more and more like a RP for next year as well.

by Buzzy on Dec 29, 2008 9:07 PM EST up reply actions  

And, I don't think there's been any

leaks that the Sox might be interested, just more speculation on the interwebs than is healthy given the player and position of topic.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Dec 29, 2008 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

(Allen: will the top moment be ready for tomorrow?)

by Randy Booth on Dec 29, 2008 8:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Are we skipping a few or are you asking if he has it ready for reviewing/editing?

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bdalebs on Dec 29, 2008 9:12 PM EST up reply actions  

In sum, bs:

I’d be a horrible journalist when it comes to deadlines, and I think Randy would agree with me whole-heartedly on that statement.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Dec 29, 2008 9:48 PM EST up reply actions  

And you don't check your email, which would have been an easier way to comunicate something secretive.

Just sayin’.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bdalebs on Dec 30, 2008 4:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I do check my e-mail.

I don’t always reply to my e-mail. :)

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Dec 31, 2008 2:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Never should.

Unless it’s a Nigerian king who needs your help to get his money back. You should ALWAYS reply to those.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bdalebs on Dec 31, 2008 11:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Yep.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Dec 29, 2008 9:43 PM EST up reply actions  

FTR, I'm not for signing Fuentes.

The FanShot was just an interesting take.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bdalebs on Dec 29, 2008 8:46 PM EST reply actions  

Hey, it's cool.

The overreactions tag is as much for me as it is for those who suggested this idea in the first place.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Dec 29, 2008 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

I was going more off of the "i can't believe the idea has popped up" tag.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bdalebs on Dec 29, 2008 9:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Ah. That's not on you.

Your fanshots have been reporting, not speculating. It’s the Buster Olney’s of the world suggesting a fit that bothers that F out of me, though ecoli’s idea below is not entirely without merit.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Dec 29, 2008 9:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Okay.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bdalebs on Dec 30, 2008 4:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, we really don't need Fuentes

Enough bullpen isurance this offseason.

Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers out of your mouth!

by BoSox415 on Dec 29, 2008 8:46 PM EST reply actions  

Fuentes

throws like a girl and will get lit up in the AL. I am praying he signs with the Angels and he closes for them.

I would much rather have the Sox spend money on Ohman than Fuentes.

by SoxAcumen on Dec 29, 2008 9:21 PM EST reply actions  

If we got Ohman

Then we can have someone with an ironic last name that can rival Balfour!

Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers out of your mouth!

by BoSox415 on Dec 29, 2008 9:33 PM EST up reply actions  

But without the attitude issues.

Don’t need a second Renteria.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bdalebs on Dec 30, 2008 4:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Pass on Fuentes

We do not need him.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Dec 29, 2008 9:26 PM EST reply actions  

I'd sign Fuentes. But

Only if we could trade Papelbon for someone awesome. Maybe Russell Martin.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Dec 29, 2008 9:38 PM EST reply actions  

No

Is there sarcasm here? I can’t tell. I’d take Paps and Bard/Brown over Fuentes and Martin any day. Closer is more important than catcher, IMO. We’ve been spoiled with Paps, don’t take him for granted.

by Schulz on Dec 30, 2008 3:28 AM EST up reply actions  

there was supposed to be text in the above. As much as I love Paps, I totally agree with Ecoli. Closers are the most overrated players in the game. Why would you take a guy who pitches 20 high leverage innings a season over a great catcher? A catcher is probably more important than a starter, let alone a closer. Look at the teams that have been successful lately-some have good closers and some don’t. It is nice to have, but nonessential. A good bullpen is essential, but a closer is just a piece of that. Thus, as much as I love Paps and have no love for Fuentes, I do think Martin+Fuentes>>Paps+scrub platoon.

by Buzzy on Dec 30, 2008 8:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Agreed

But the Dodgers will not trade Martin for Paps.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Dec 30, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Ha

of course not, but it is fun to think about ;-).

by Buzzy on Dec 30, 2008 1:52 PM EST up reply actions  

No sarcasm.

I love Papelbon, but I’m realistic. He’s made it clear that getting the biggest payday is his long-term priority. I figure that by the time Paps is a free agent, Mariano Rivera will be gone, and the Yanks will sign Papelbon to a HUGE deal. Partly because he’ll be the best option, and partly to spite us. So many of our hearts will break to hear him spouting idiotic phrases about how much he loves New York. But Theo won’t overvalue him, so he’ll leave.

Therefore, I would entertain trading Papelbon for a star position player. Maybe even a prospect with that near-term potential (ex. Travis Snyder, Taylor Teagarden). Buzzy’s reasons are correct too – closers are overrated, even the best ones like Paps. A halfway decent reliever can be an effective closer, and the difference between him and Paps isn’t as much as one might think.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Dec 30, 2008 5:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Pujols.

That’s the only acceptable offer.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bdalebs on Dec 30, 2008 4:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes don't sign him...

let the Angels do it.

BOOYA! You got Slurved!

by Slurvey on Dec 30, 2008 2:01 AM EST reply actions  

LOL

Angels signed him today. Well there goes that bullpen….right down the drain. If Fuentes closes over Arredondo, Angel fan will finally pull the trigger and end it all after the As win the AL West.

by SoxAcumen on Dec 31, 2008 6:13 PM EST reply actions  

Obviously.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bdalebs on Dec 31, 2008 11:11 PM EST up reply actions  

NO.

He’s as bad as KRod.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bdalebs on Jan 3, 2009 8:10 PM EST up reply actions  

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