What the Brad Penny signing means for Boston

by Randy Booth on Dec 29, 2008 3:17 PM EST in News Comment 30 comments

New Red Sox starter Brad Penny. (via dodgerfan.net)

The Red Sox can not go wrong with signing Brad Penny.

The Sox and Penny agreed to a one-year, $5M contract with up to $3M in incentives last night. Penny, coming off an injury-shortened season (tendinitis in right shoulder) in which he started just 17 games, will most likely be the Red Sox's fourth starter in the rotation.

With Penny, 30, in the rotation, the Sox look to have solidified their rotation for the 2009 season:

Josh Beckett, RHP
Jon Lester, LHP
Daisuke Matsuzka, RHP
Brad Penny, RHP
Tim Wakefield, RHP

Penny's best season came in 2007 when he was a Dodger. He went 16-4 in 33 starts with a 3.03 earned run average. Penny has a career 106 ERA+.

There are a few concerns with signing Penny. The first is his injury history. Reports are that he was actually throwing 97 when he got back in September last season, but just wasn't effective.

The second is how he'll translate from pitching in the National League for nine years to pitching in the toughest division in baseball, the American League East. Odds are he won't have a Cy Young season like he did in 2007, but he shouldn't be horrible. He's a capable as long as he's healthy.

But now you have to ask, why can't the Sox go wrong with signing Penny? Easy, because this is chump change for a pitcher that has a pretty solid track record. The Sox didn't gamble on a pitcher like A.J. Burnett, who could blow up with one pitch. They decided to go a much cheaper route and sign a pitcher that has the ability to be in that echelon of pitcher. If Penny is bad, the Sox miss out on $5, which is pretty much nothing. If he's awesome, then we get a great pitcher for $8M or so.

This deal is similar to things the Sox have done in the past, like Bartolo Colon and Wade Miller. Both deals didn't create All-Stars, but we don't look back and regret them, do we?

The deal could be called a shot in the dark, but it's worth it. It's a low-risk, high-reward deal; one the Sox love the most.

Poll

For $5M (plus $3M based on incentives), is this a good signing for the Red Sox?

Yes

201 votes

No

10 votes

Only time will tell

43 votes

254 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 30 comments

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Comments

Good post.

As you said, this is a typically low-risk, high-reward signing for the Sox. However, another down side I thought of was that we are now content with our rotation and will not bring in another starter. I would have rather seen John Smoltz or Ben Sheets in our rotation. I worry that Penny will have trouble in the AL East. Can’t really complain about this signing though.

by Schulz on Dec 29, 2008 5:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No monetary jokes yet ugh!

Ron Paul for 4th starter!

by Red Sox #1 Fan on Dec 29, 2008 5:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

r3VO_|ution?

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 29, 2008 9:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

/doesn't know how to do a backward "L"

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 29, 2008 9:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is this part of the their "new approach" or more of the same

So if the Red Sox are never going to sign a big name free agent ever again, Is this the way to move forward? And when i mean big name 100 mill plus contract. I have heard in the past that Theo would like to invest more money into the farm system for player development
but how can a team invest 20 mill into a farm system or is it just a talking point? I can see investing in low-risk, high-reward deals like Penny’s,but we got burnt on Schill’s last year.
Maybe he learned from Curt age matters and didnt want to repeat it and sign Smoltz. (Penny wise and pound foolish) Man do i suck!

by Red Sox #1 Fan on Dec 29, 2008 6:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The difference between this and Schilling

Is that we originally were counting on Schilling to do something for us in 2008. I don’t think we’re putting a whole lot of stock into Penny for 2009, as we have Buchholz, Bowden, and Masterson there in case he falters.

by Gnick on Dec 30, 2008 1:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Injuries??

Will Penny be healthy in 2009? If not, this isn’t a good deal, because the money could’ve probably been spent on Lowe.

If he will pitch 150+ innings with an ERA say below 4.15 it’s a great deal.

Like the way the contract is structured, so that’s it’s not 8M no matter what happens, but instead incentive-laden.

I think ALL contracts should be structured this way; it shifts the risk to the player.

by halflink123 on Dec 29, 2008 7:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If he blows, that’s $5M. That’s nothing when it comes to getting Lowe who, I will add, is way overpriced as is.

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Dec 29, 2008 7:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK I shouldn't have said anything about Lowe

$5M is money though. If it was like $2m-$8M; different story, and you can go out and sign another pitcher.

If he totally tanks, Sox are $5M down AND they need to find another starter. Overall it’s a good deal though. It’s not a great deal, but it is a good deal.

by halflink123 on Dec 29, 2008 8:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but hopefully Penny will be able to AT LEAST buy time for Buchholz and/or Bowden.

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Dec 29, 2008 8:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I love this signing

5 million is chump change and Penny does have the potential to win 15 games, even in the AL East.

I still think the Sox should sign Kawakami or Smoltz just to solidify their rotation, but solid signing with little or no risk.

by SoxAcumen on Dec 29, 2008 9:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Do you think..

that Smoltz will still be signed to pitch out of the bullpen? ….or could the Sox go to a 6 man rotation? I would love either one.

by Brad West on Dec 30, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I dont know

this is the question I was asking as well. I am assuming that the Rotation will take at least one injury during the season so I do not see a reason not to sign Smoltz, outside of health.

He seems perfect. Veteran arm, power arm, can pitch in the pen and as a starter, does well against the Yankees. Pretty cheap as well.

I do hope the Penny signing is not the end.

by SoxAcumen on Dec 30, 2008 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

4TH & 5TH Starters will be difference makers in this division.

Rays 1-3 starters SOLID

Yankess 1-3 SOLID

Red Sox 1-5 SOLID Penny is a two or three anywhere else, great pick up.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton

by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 12:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

You're assuming that Shields, Garza, and Kazmir will continue to perform at last year's level.

Kazmir ain’t that good really. Garza will get figured out soon, and Shields will have to get better to keep up with our young hitter’s development.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 30, 2008 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree.

All three of those kids are very good pitchers.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 30, 2008 9:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kazmir has issues that might not be able to be fixed.

Shields got semi-exposed in the ALCS. Garza doesn’t seem that difficult to crack – his stuff isn’t crazy great. He had a .278 BABIP, which should return to close to .300 this year, as projected by Bill James and Marcel.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 31, 2008 12:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

.278 isn't too far from the league average.

And he was money in the playoffs. Garza is very good.

What exactly are Kazmir’s issues? He had some injury problems, but then so did Beckett. He’s a good pitcher – I’d take him.

And Shields had a very good season too. Sure, he lost a couple of games in the playoffs, but to say he was “exposed” seems a little over the top. He threw better than Lester.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 31, 2008 6:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kazmir has mechanics issues.

And he needs to learn how to get guys out quicker to be able to go deeper into the game. Lester exploded at Fenway, something that doesn’t shock me because Fenway isn’t exactly a lefty’s haven.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 31, 2008 11:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

About .012, iirc.

Average BABIP is around .280 to .300. BP puts it at .290. Really good hitters can average higher. Guys like me could probably BABIP .200.

Also, I think Lester and Shields were rather even in 2008.
Lester: 210.1 IP, 3.21 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 4.19 xFIP
Shields: 215 IP, 3.56 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 4.06 xFIP

I’d rather have Lester. His raw stuff strikes me as more powerful than Shields.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Dec 31, 2008 11:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs