CP Results 2008: J.D. Drew

by Randy Booth on Dec 17, 2008 6:00 AM EST in Community Projections

'Tis the season for community projection results. It's when I stick my nose into Excel for a few hours and figure out where people went right and wrong. A community projection, if you don't know, is where members of the OTM community predict how a certain player will do in the upcoming season. To see an example, here is J.D. Drew's.

And speaking of Drew, we start with Drew. Overall, predictions were a tad high for how Drew actually produced. It certainly didn't help though that Drew missed a good chunk of time due to injury. Had Drew been able to play in 30 or so more games then these predictions probably would have been a lot closer and, in some cases, lower.

Here's how the numbers broke down:

		Games	Runs	Hits	Doubles	HR	RBI	BA	OBP
ACTUAL		109	79	103	23	19	64	0.280	0.408
PROJECTED	139	89	145	33	19	88	0.285	0.389
CLOSEST	130	87	110	24	17	77	0.282	0.400

The closet projection was by OTM user future. As you can see by the average projection, if Drew were healthy the entire season he'd actually surpass expectations.

Thoughts? The remaining projections will be posted soon.

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Comments

I'm going to be lazy and project the same thing as last year

Games: 140
Runs: 90
Hits: 160
Doubles: 35
Home runs: 20
RBIs: 85
Batting Average: .280
On-Base %: .380

Drew will be healthier (how could he not be?), but less productive when he plays. And that will be ok because we won’t have another outfielder who refuses to play because $20M/year isn’t a living wage.

by RSNexile on Dec 17, 2008 10:01 AM EST reply actions