Yankees sign A.J. Burnett
by revigik on Dec 12, 2008 5:14 PM EST
63 comments
According to ESPN. Yankees sign AJ Burnett for 5 years, $80 mil approximately. Deal pending. Jeez, Yankees keep throwing away money on pitching that will not value in the end. *cough, cough* Kevin Brown, Kei Igawa
MLBTRADERUMORS:
According to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, the Yankees reached a preliminary agreement with A.J. Burnett on a five-year, $82.5MM deal ($16.5MM per year on average). The deal is pending a physical, and some final terms must be hammered out.
That's $243.5MM spent by the Yankees on starting pitching, unless C.C. Sabathia opts out. The Braves will have to figure out a Plan B.
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We don't really have to do anything major
The Sox need a catcher, 4th OF, bench help, and a 5th starter. Anything else they add is gravy.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2008 5:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I respectfully disagree. I think we need a middle of the lineup power threat. I think Ortiz is a big question mark.
by matzushocka45 on Dec 12, 2008 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
http://www.overthemonster.com/2008/12/12/691009/december-12-2008
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 12, 2008 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As things stand right now, the Sox are still better
Here’s how the Sox and MFY position players match-up:
1B – Youk > Swisher
2B – Pedroia > Cano
SS – Lowrie/Lugo < Jeter
3B – Lowell < Rodriguez
LF – Bay > Damon
CF – Ellsbury > Cabrara/Gardner
RF – Drew > Nady
C – ???? < Posada/Molina
DH – Ortiz > Matsui/Posada
As it stands right now, the Sox are better at 6 of 9 positions. If you believe Ortiz is a questionmark (and Drew too), the MFY have a couple of their own. Posada and Matsui are questions too. Also, if Posada’s shoulder forces him to DH, NY has a logjame at that position. Unless the MFY get a big bat, they may score even fewer runs than last year. Boston can be better just by being healthier in 2009.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2008 6:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
SS is suspect...
And 3B is close because Lowell is better defensively. If AARPRod played SS again, it would be a blowout in favor of the MFY, but 3B would be in our favor.
Also, didn’t Melky get traded?
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 12, 2008 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Melky hasn't been traded yet
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2008 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Okay.
Blame ESPN for jumping the shark to try to break stories first.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 12, 2008 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Whoa Whoa Whoa
Yeah I like Lowell too, but to say that it’s a close race at 3B is not accurate. Not only is ARod the best at his position (David Wright is the only other one that comes close), he’s one of the top 5 players in the league. The Yankees definitely have an advantage in that category.
by Gnick on Dec 12, 2008 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Umm... I wouldn't be too sure about that.
I overvalue Lowell because he consistently makes great plays.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 13, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dammit, forgot the link:
Chipper!!!: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/10/31/649202/best-third-basemen-of-2008
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 13, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That link
Indicates that ARod was the #2 third baseman in baseball this year despite missing a good deal of time due to injury. Lowell was nowhere to be found on that list.
Lowell’s last three seasons average a line of: .294/.353/.479
ARod’s last three seasons average a line of: .302/.402/.580
by Gnick on Dec 13, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Defense + clutch make up for that in my mind.
AARP-Rod: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1274&position=3B/SS#winprobability
Lowell: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=527&position=3B#winprobability
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 14, 2008 10:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it all comes down to one thing
If the MFY sign Tex, they look a bit better than us on paper. If we sign Tex, we’re better than them. If we don’t sign Tex, and he goes to whatever crappy NL team, we’re still better! Our odds are good if you ask me.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Dec 12, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If he signs with the MFY, I'm robbing the Steinbrenners.
I live in Tampa, so this could be a possibility. Also, anyone know what kinda car Cashman drives?
Joking… maybe.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 12, 2008 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget
The Yankees aren’t our only opponents. IMO, we need Tex to maintain our status in the present and future.
by Schulz on Dec 14, 2008 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m going on the belief Lowell, Ortiz, and Drew spend time on the DL. I think getting Tex is crucial for the Sox in 2009. I also think if they miss out on him, they get Holliday next season and Im not a believer in Holliday at all. I also think Tex only cost $$ now, whereas if we do not get him the cost at the deadline would be far more significant in propects.
Damn it, I wish Manny had not pulled his stunt. I’d much rather have Manny as a DH the next few seasons than Ortiz. Ahh well…
by matzushocka45 on Dec 12, 2008 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brain Surgeon You Are Not
You respond to a message about the Yankees getting A.J. Then you match up the teams and conclude the Red Sox are “STILL BETTER” without including A.J. or the pitching. Do me a favor and make sense next time.
I see things you don't see.
by LouieTheLip on Dec 13, 2008 2:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You really are an idiot, so I'll make this simple for you
I was responding to matzushocka45, who thought the Sox needed another bat to compete with the MFY. Are you following so far? Threads often go off on tangents. If you read farther pitching was discussed.
You are an ill-mannered troll who isn’t very knowledgeable about baseball.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 13, 2008 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
$82.5mil is what I saw.
So, basically, if the MFY don’t make the playoffs this year, and the rest of their bandwagon fans jump off… [does calculations]
THEY’LL GO BANKRUPT?!?!?!
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 12, 2008 5:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
With the same regulations suggested for the Auto Industry?
Okay.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 12, 2008 5:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Slighty overpaid considering health issues
I wanted AJ, mainly because I’m a sucker for his stuff. But no way in hell I’d give him this money and this much time.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Dec 12, 2008 5:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
He has great stuff
But a low pain threshold. My guess they get two solid 200+ IP seasons, 1 or 2 in the 150-175 inning range, and 1 or 2 in the 120-150 range.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2008 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If he averages 180 innings
then this deal will be a steal. Here’s hoping its Pavano redux.
by BTLove on Dec 12, 2008 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope he is Pavano redux
It’s hard to call $16 million for 180 IP a steal.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2008 6:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe not a steal,
but he has averaged 3.8 WAR over the last 3 years. That means they are paying about $4.2 mil per win over replacement. This is right around the value of a marginal win on the free agent market (a bunch of guys are getting more than this). and since he’s averaged a little more than 180 innings the last three years, he should come in somewhere around there. So yeah, not a steal, but definitely a little below the market rate.
by BTLove on Dec 12, 2008 6:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Drugs, do you have issues with inflation?
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 12, 2008 6:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i dont think they are done, i think they will get another sp and manny
by matzushocka45 on Dec 12, 2008 5:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
That would push their payroll to the $220-240 range.
A bit much even for the Yanks
by BTLove on Dec 12, 2008 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I think they’re around $190 million now.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2008 6:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I believe they make a trade of Damon and or possibly Matsui to clear $$ although I’ve heard Hideki will not waive his NTC for any reason.
by matzushocka45 on Dec 12, 2008 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I haven't heard anything about this.
My guess is if they trade either of these guys they would have to eat a big chunk of their salaries.
by BTLove on Dec 12, 2008 8:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Matsui believes it's a dishonor to be traded.
He’d go back to Japan first.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 13, 2008 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If healthy
CC, Wang, AJ and Joba is a pretty fierce front four. Probably better than better than Beckett, Lester, Dice and Wake.
I’ll take our offense, even without Tex. But pitching wins.
Sign Smoltz.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Dec 12, 2008 8:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Our pen is better, as is our defense
So, the overall pitching is about even. The Sox have a better offense, defense, and manager. I still like our chances even without Tex.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2008 8:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We need another pitcher.
I’m intrigued by Kawakami.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Dec 12, 2008 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
pitching is hard to predict
it varies so much from year to year
on paper, who thought the Rays would have dominant pitching last year (by the way, trading Edwin Jackson was braindead, as far as I can tell)
CC and AJ could be average, even if not hurt
Wang is consistent, because he has a sinker, and the sinkerball pitchers are often consistent. Solid No. 2 pitcher
Beckett worried me a bit last year, but I think he will bounce back. I think Lester is for real. That is a lot
and, unlike many here, I have an extreme amount of confidence in Masterson, and think he is a solid No. 3 starter in the making
by Frank Malzone on Dec 13, 2008 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see CC being "average."
He’s very good to excellent. Burnett on the other hand could be very average. And hurt.
But on paper, they look strong.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Dec 13, 2008 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Edwin Jackson trade
was far from braindead. Jackson is a crappy pitcher on every notable metric with somewhat good stuff that can’t seem to get anyone out on a regular basis. In return they open a roster spot for someone who is almost assured to be superior AND gain an underrated OF in Joyce. I’d count that as a pretty overwhelmingly huge win for the Rays.
by manifestus on Dec 15, 2008 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 15, 2008 7:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well played.
Plus they opened up a rotation spot for David Price.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Dec 15, 2008 8:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah yes.
Not to mention I can’t fathom a scenario where Jackson is going to suddenly do better with a significantly worse defense behind him. That Rays defense helped him look way better than he actually was.
by manifestus on Dec 15, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also
Pitching is hard to predict completely accurately — but so is everything else. You can however get a pretty decent idea by looking at what sort of pitcher (groundball? flyball?), K/BB, trending tendencies, various metrics, and so forth.
CC does not look like he’s about to suddenly become “average”. See: Fangraph K/BB for CC
Feel free to look around there — he looks pretty good across the board.
What AJ and CC both have in common are good K+Groundball abilities, both of which translate well no matter where they are pitching. And honestly, a lot of people thought the Rays would have dominant pitching — Shields, Kazmir, Garza were all highly touted even last year, and Price wasn’t exactly a “secret”. Sonnanstine perhaps, but given that ridiculous defense with Crawford et al., it’s actually not nearly as surprising as the media would have you believe.
by manifestus on Dec 15, 2008 6:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bullpen’s are a crap shoot on a yearly basis.
by matzushocka45 on Dec 12, 2008 8:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
True to an extent
However, the Sox have some very good arms: Paps, MDC, and Masterson. They have some decent situational pitchers: J-Lo and Oki. And they’ve added Ramon Ramirez and Wes Littleton. If four of the seven have good years, the Sox will be tough.
As for the MFY, they have Rivera, the best closer last year. However, he’ll be 39 next year and he is coming off shoulder surgery. The rest of the pen is Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras, Damaso Marte, and Brian Bruney. Ramirez and Veras gave up 7 HR each in 55.1 IP and 57.2 IP respectively. Marte is solid, and who really knows about Bruney?
Here’s how the Sox’ pen stacks up:
Red Sox:
Paps – (28)
2008: (69.1 IP) 2.34 ERA 0.95 WHIP 10.00 K/9 1.04 BB/9 4 HR
2007: (58.1 IP) 1.85 ERA 0.77 WHIP 12.96 K/9 2.31 BB/9 5 HR
Masterson – (23)
2008: (34.1 IP) 2.36 ERA 1.17 WHIP 7.60 K/9 3.15 BB/9 2 HR
MDC – (26)
2008: (74.1 IP) 3.27 ERA 1.12 WHIP 8.72 K/9 3.39 BB/9 5 HR
2007: (44 IP) 2.05 ERA 1.02 WHIP 8.39 K/9 3.48 BB/9 4 HR
Oki – (32)
2008: (62 IP) 2.61 ERA 1.16 WHIP 8.71 K/9 3.34 BB/9 6 HR
2007: (69 IP) 2.22 ERA 0.97 WHIP 8.22 K/9 2.22 BB/9 6 HR
J-Lo – (31)
2008: (59.1 IP) 2.43 ERA 1.35 WHIP 5.76 K/9 4.10 BB/9 4 HR
2007: (40.2 IP) 3.10 ERA 1.33 WHIP 5.75 K/9 3.98 BB/9 2 HR
***************************************
Ramirez – (27)
2008 w/ KC: (71.2 IP) 2.64 ERA 1.23 WHIP 8.79 K/9 3.89 BB/9 2 HR
2006/2007 w/ Col: (85 IP) 4.45 ERA 1.42 WHIP 8.05 K/9 3.49 BB/9 7 HR
Looking at the Sox’ relievers in 2007 and 2008 I’d say they were fairly consistent. Players can have bad seasons. Boston’s staff isn’t old or very young (except Wakefield, Masterson, Buchholz, and Bowden). I think you can give a pretty fair guess what these players will be capable of if healthy. Ramirez and Littleton are harder to predict.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2008 9:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Joba is going back to the pen tho as well correct?
by matzushocka45 on Dec 12, 2008 9:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
nah
Joba’s gonna be the 5th starter to limit his innings.
by CasanovaWong on Dec 12, 2008 10:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The MFY
have just started their crash into madness. They will not stop spending until their payroll approaches 300 million. That will be awesome to see them still chock in the playoffs. C.C = Choker, Burnett = Injury prone. Sure they will make the playoffs but what happens when C.C chokes in the playoffs and Burnett is nursing a sore shoulder. Their offense as currently constructed is not very good either. This just makes them exploding that much more enjoyable. Even if they do win the World Series that isn’t a big deal because they should given their payroll. Hank is going to do to the Yankees what George did at first.
Baseball is God's sport! All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident. kinesiologist
by E5 on Dec 13, 2008 1:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
$243
Come on is anyone outside of NY believing that the Yankees are back bc they overspend to get talent?
NO!
They needed 25 Million extra to sign CC and 5 million more to get Burnett. Yankee Pride!!!
The Yankees are such an embarrassment to everyone we have started to applaud their antics just to keep them from doing something really stupid. Err… Carl Pavano II.
by SoxAcumen on Dec 13, 2008 4:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Jealous
The Yankees aren’t fooling around anymore. The piss ant redsox are just a fad,, take your crappy stadium and get to the bottom of the division.
by NewJersey Yankee on Dec 13, 2008 10:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
HAHAHA... we have a crappy stadium?
We’re not the ones who just had to build a new one.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 13, 2008 12:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
… with a martini bar.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 13, 2008 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Stay classy, Jersey.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Dec 13, 2008 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That dickhead doesnt speak for all of us.
We didnt have to build a new stadium, we just maxed out the revenue potential at the old one. This new “deathstar” as you guys call it (which i think is funny as hell), should make about twice as much as the old one. And yes, it has a martini bar, but it’s where the black seats used to be in dead center at the old stadium. Instead of having a big empty void they threw in a martini bar to make some additional loot. If anyone’s wondering as a die hard yankee fan i’m not too big on the burnett signing, but you gotta hope cashman and the rest of the FO did their due diligence in studying AJ’s health charts. I also think we’re still a big bat away from being able to do some serious damage in the al beast. I know you guys will scoff at this but I wouldn’t completely rule out a late run at tex seeing as though we have been suspiciously quiet on that front.
by CasanovaWong on Dec 13, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't be too proud of this technological terror of yours.
The ability to destroy the sinuses is insignificant next to the power of the Force.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Dec 13, 2008 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it's gonna be
more like the ability to destroy wallet sizes.
by CasanovaWong on Dec 13, 2008 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Toliet is a better description, IMHO, but continue...
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Dec 14, 2008 10:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not Concerned
AJ won’t pitch over 180 innings. Joba will be limited to about 100 innings. Wang only pitched 95 innings last year due to injury, he will have a limit around 150. Who will have to pitch all the innings that those 3 leave behind? CC which means his arm will be blown come September.
by drabidea on Dec 15, 2008 8:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I disagree.
While Burnett may come in around 180, he has the ability to pitch like 220 innings, as he did last year. You can’t just assume a guy is going to get injured. As for the other two, why would they limit Wang to 150 innings? He’ll come back healthy, and ready to go 200+. Joba pitched 100 last year, so you can bet that they’ll let him do significantly more this year. I would expect them to limit him to about 175.
Let’s say I’m overestimating a little bit. The Yankees rotation still looks like: (Name, IP)
Sabathia, 200+
Wang, 180+
Burnett, 180+
Joba 160+
The fifth starter is still a mystery, and it will likely be a comination of Hughes, Kennedy, and others. However, to be realistic, I like their front four more than ours (Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Wakefield) at this point.
by Schulz on Dec 15, 2008 12:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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