Jason Bay: Worth an extension?

by 0157H7 on Nov 5, 2008 3:37 PM EST

According to Alex Speier's blog on WEEI.com, Jason Bay is interested in discussing a contract extension with the Red Sox. At present he is due to hit the free agent market in the 2009 offseason (along with Matt Holliday). From the blog:

“It’s a situation where he’s loving Boston. It’s a great club and a great organization,” said Nez Balelo of Creative Artists Agency. “He’s a quality player, and I’m sure (the Red Sox) recognize that. Whatever they want to do, I’m sure that we’re all ears.”

I think it's worth talking. Bay has proven he can hit in Boston, and in the playoffs. Overall, he hit .286 / .373 / .522 with 31 HR between Boston and Pittsburgh. His .302 Equivalent Average was fourth best on the team, behind Drew (.314), Youk (.313) and Manny (.310).

The only knock on him is defense: an .821 RZR in his limited time in Boston. His arm isn't great, and he doesn't have great range (or plays balls too tentatively). Some of that may be unfamiliarity with the Green Monster.

Contract talks would probably start around $16 million a year for 5+ years. What say you, OTMers? Deal or no deal?

Poll

Should the Sox try to extend Bay?

Yes. We need power bats, and he's one of the best available.

117 votes

Yes. He's not my first choice, but he's the best one. Holliday will cost way too much, and no other upcoming free agent will be as good as Bay.

124 votes

No. He's a great player, but we can do better. Let him walk in '09 and aim for Holliday (or someone else).

25 votes

No. His defense is highly suspect, and his hitting isn't worth what he'll demand.

7 votes

My answer does not fit the oppressive bounds of your patriarchal question.

11 votes

284 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 33 comments |

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Comments

Bay is the real deal.

I’m all for extending him. Do you think $60MM / 4 years would do it? If so this would be a big upside over Holliday in terms of money and years committed (Holliday could command around $100MM / 5 years). I posted a comparison of 3-year averages between these two on another thread. Here it is:

Jason Bay: 562 AB, .274 AVG, .368 OBP, .439 SLG, 29 HR, 98 RBI
Matt Holliday: 592 AB, .329 AVG, .400 OBP, .579 SLG, 32 HR, 113 RBI

It would appear that Holliday is clearly the better hitter, but it is important to consider that his home-field is a notorious hitter’s park, while Bay’s was not (in Pittsburgh). Take a look at this comparison:
Career Home vs. Road
Bay: .284 / .383 / .502 vs. .281 / .367 / .530
Holliday: .357 / .423 / .645 vs. .280 / .348 / .455

Holliday has clearly experienced some statistical inflation as a result of playing in Colorado, while Bay plays consistently well everywhere.

Holliday’s agent is Boras.
Bays agent is [Insert name that is not Boras here].

If your options are Bay and Holliday, Bay is clearly the better option. He gives you the same performance, but his extension would cost far less than a Holliday Free Agent signing. Unless there is an even better option out there (besides these two), the Red Sox need to extend Jason Bay.

by Schulz on Nov 5, 2008 4:11 PM EST 0 recs

Bay's agent is Joe Urbon

Another of his agents, Nez Balelo is quoted in the blog post above. So I guess he’s represented by two guys (at least) from the Octagon.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 5, 2008 4:46 PM EST up 0 recs

A re-post

A point about Holliday

It’s been alleged that Holliday at sea level is not nearly the hitter he is in Colorado. I looked at the numbers and while he does have tremendous home/away splits, his away numbers are still very good. In fact, they’re slightly better than Jason Bay’s.

Holliday’s away splits
2008: .332/.413/.584 = .891 OPS
2005-2007: .296/.370/.486 = .856 OPS

Bay’s away splits
2008: .289/.376/.498 = .874 OPS
2005-2007: .267/.355/.501 = .856 OPS

For the record, Holliday had a 2008 home OPS of .997 and Bay’s was .913. I’m forced to conclude that Holliday is, in fact, a better hitter all-around, but not significantly so. Therefore, why would we trade away a large amount of player capital to acquire Holliday? Keeping Bay is a far better bargain for the Red Sox. The Holliday deal won’t happen.

Re-sign Bay.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Nov 7, 2008 1:03 PM EST up 0 recs

Plus there is no competition over Bay's contract now,

which by definition ought to make his bargaining position weaker. If Holliday hits free agency – and I imagine he’ll be traded before the season’s out and locked up by his new club – he will be the big bat on the market.

"no1 has time to read your long comments, are you writing a book?"

by britsoxfan on Nov 7, 2008 4:38 PM EST up 0 recs

@ $16 mil a year?!?!?!

I hope the Sox can agree with an extension because I would love to see Bay in Fenway for a long time – but at $16 mil. a year? Come on, that’s ridiculous. He’s about a $10 mil a year guy in a non-inflated (meaning NY-BOS bidding war) market.

Man do I hate Longhorn fans, well except for the ones that actually went there.

by mystman995 on Nov 5, 2008 4:15 PM EST 0 recs

Contract inflation

$Ten mil a year doesn’t get you what it used to. About four years ago we could offer Bay 4/$40MM and he would take it. Now, he’ll get at least $16MM annually.

by Schulz on Nov 5, 2008 4:33 PM EST up 0 recs

You pay him a good amount.

Or he hits the free agent market and gets more. Unless baseball teams start cutting back heavily, Bay can expect quite a bit.

Carlos Silva (league-average or worse starter) is getting paid $12 million a year. J.D. Drew, a guy with a bad injury history, got 5 years / $14 million per. Jason Bay has little injury history, only one bad year, and has proven he can hack it in Boston and in the playoffs. He’s worth at least $15 million, and probably more, in today’s market.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 5, 2008 4:54 PM EST up 0 recs

I guess I say that

because that these salaries are just sickening. And now Boras wants to up the signing bonuses now because they’ll be taxed more next year when Obama takes office.

Gee I wish I were making the $400k league minimum making me in that tax bracket…..

Man do I hate Longhorn fans, well except for the ones that actually went there.

by mystman995 on Nov 5, 2008 5:26 PM EST up 0 recs

Sad that baseball is held hostage

because it’s as you say, “If you don’t play me, someone will.”

I would love to see MLB join the rest of the professional sports with a salary cap and end this nonsense, but I’m not holding my breath waiting for it. Pay Bay the money; he’s not only a good player but a good guy in the dugout……well-liked and respected. Just work on him hitting a curve.

by ccthemovieman on Nov 5, 2008 5:39 PM EST up 0 recs

"pay" me

I meant

by ccthemovieman on Nov 5, 2008 5:40 PM EST up 0 recs

Bay

has earned his extension. too many people in professional sports get money and do not perform. Bay performed and wants to be a Red Sox. Give him his money and lets all be happy we got him and not Pat Burrell.

by SoxAcumen on Nov 5, 2008 7:45 PM EST 0 recs

No love for Pat the Bat?

I mean, his defense might be putrid, and he might be two years older than Bay, and he might have lower career BA and OBP than Bay, and he might not run as well, but is that really reason to not like him?

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 5, 2008 7:54 PM EST up 0 recs

i am sure Pat the Bat is a very nice man…=)

by SoxAcumen on Nov 5, 2008 11:59 PM EST up 0 recs

Sign him for another 5 years

I love the guy, and I think he’s good enough.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 5, 2008 7:57 PM EST 0 recs

Hmm... Only because my head hurts from trying to fathom the stupidity of America right now will I say this:

Sign him to an extension. We could trade him if necessary, but only once Reddick is ready. Maybe a super-blockbuster involving him, Youk, Papi, and a high ranking pitching prospect for Pujols and a prospect once Lars, Reddick, and Co. are ready to take their spots. We’d have to pay off almost half of those salaries though.
And yes, I know I’m crazy.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 5, 2008 8:55 PM EST 0 recs

America just woke up

and saved itself. The US just proved once again why its the greatest country in the world.

by SoxAcumen on Nov 6, 2008 12:02 AM EST up 0 recs

Have fun with that.

Thanks for leaving me the mess to clean up in 2012.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 6, 2008 4:50 PM EST up 0 recs

U r funny.

Stupid would be putting my old race- and red-baiting mayor a heartbeat away from the preznitcy. Seriously.

Today is a happy day.

All of which has nothing to Jason Bay.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 6, 2008 12:10 AM EST up 0 recs

Obama winning the election was the most obvious thing since game 7 of the 2004 ALCS

And the right thing as well…

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 6, 2008 12:13 AM EST up 0 recs

The first part yes. I was praying for a miracle...

Not gonna respond to the second part.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 6, 2008 4:51 PM EST up 0 recs

Ladies and gentlemen.

Let’s save the politics for elsewhere. It’s been pretty civil to this point, but it won’t remain so, so let’s just leave it all out. Baseball, Red Sox, and laughing at me should be the topics of choice.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Nov 6, 2008 2:36 AM EST 0 recs

Agreed

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 6, 2008 7:13 AM EST up 0 recs

1+

by ccthemovieman on Nov 6, 2008 3:12 PM EST up 0 recs

[points at Allen]

HA-ha!

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Nov 6, 2008 2:21 PM EST up 1 recs

Rec'd.

This is what I’m talking about people.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Nov 10, 2008 10:19 PM EST up 0 recs

Okay, just venting because I would've gotten suspended at school for making use of the First Amendment.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 6, 2008 4:49 PM EST up 0 recs

Sorry.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 6, 2008 10:01 PM EST up 0 recs

No need for you or anyone else

To apologize. Just kind of reiterating the purpose of the blog. Our father/grandfather blog would be a great place for the political discussions. :)

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Nov 10, 2008 10:20 PM EST up 0 recs

Where's that?

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 11, 2008 11:37 AM EST up 0 recs

DailyKos

Though I can’t imagine you’re going to enjoy it too much, bsetcetera.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Nov 13, 2008 4:50 PM EST up 0 recs

Well, geez...

Entire page is filled with posts from today… Not a site you can just glance at everyday… I can see why you’d think that…

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 13, 2008 8:12 PM EST up 0 recs

RZR

doesn’t fenway negatively affect this metric? at the very least left field b/c of the dimensions…

i dont entirely understand how it’s calculated but the feeling when bay was acquired was that we had gotten a better fielder than manny. manny’s defense in fenway (according to the eyeball test) was quite good as he learned how to play the wall as well as play much shallower than most.

direct question – does the dimensions of the park negatively impact a players zone rating since the park itself makes the fielders zone smaller?

by EWS1532 on Nov 6, 2008 4:24 PM EST 0 recs

The Monster negatively affects all zone ratings, iirc.

Manny’s defense is bad, both at Fenway and elsewhere. Guys who calculate defense stats routinely have him as one of the worst fielders in the game. Bay is faster than Manny, but plays a bit tentatively; his defensive numbers weren’t great, ever. I wrote a bit about both of them, earlier in the year. See here.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 6, 2008 5:52 PM EST up 0 recs