Masterson: Sell High?
Salesman extraordinaire Justin Masterson makes his pitch. via multimedia.heraldinteractive.com
The baseball player market is a tricky economy, but you can still apply some simple financial concepts to it, like the axiom "Buy Low, Sell High." In baseball, this means you trade players at the peak of their perceived value, and acquire them when they are underrated (see Ortiz, David).
When evaluating prospects and young players, you need to look at potential value as well as past performance. For example, Kason Gabbard produced well for the Red Sox in 2007, increasing his perceived value. However, few scouts or other baseball people saw him as anything more than a fringe major league player or a 5th starter. Gabbard was traded as part of the Eric Gagne deal (a strange case in which both teams were selling high on their players). Between injury and regression, Kason didn't impress this year (5.14 FIP, only 56 innings pitched), and the Sox didn't miss him. So let's talk about another player who has raised his value.
Playoff hero, bullpen stalwart - it's tough to imagine Justin Masterson's stock rising any higher. By contrast, it's quite easy to see it fall. As I've previously mentioned, going by FIP and BABIP, Masterson's 2008 debut was rather lucky. There is a fair chance that his performance (runs allowed) will fall into line with his peripherals (balls in play, walks). On the other hand, with improved control, he could become an even better pitcher.
In terms of ceiling, few scouting sources believe he'll be a top of the rotation starter, or a closer. Soxprospects.com writes Masterson could be "a #3 starter or dominant set-up man." John Sickels sees Masterson as a #3 starter if his changeup improves; he also believes Justin has the skills and mentality to close.
Considering his ceiling and his peripherals, I think that Masterson is a good candidate to trade. Among starters, Bowden has about the same ceiling, Buchholz has a higher one, and we still have Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, and Wake. Among relievers, we have Daniel Bard and his overpowering fastball rapidly approaching the majors. More importantly, reliever performance is quite variable from year to year, with dominant set-up men one year being atrocious the next (see Betancourt, Rafael and Balfour, Grant). We already have some good set-up candidates in the pen (Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, Wes Littleton) so Masterson isn't desperately needed there.
The danger is that we hold on to Masterson, he regresses, and becomes either a mediocre starter or a poor middle reliever. All the value that he accrued this year is lost. Undoubtedly the Red Sox are a good enough team to survive that possibility. But if Masterson can bring a great return now, like the catcher of the future, then I would definitely go for it.
What do you think? Is it time for the Red Sox to cash in? Should we sell high on Masterson, or should we hold on to him?
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Comments
Buzzy
I agree with the entire premise of the post. I like Masterson, but right now he is high value, somewhat low ceiling. Unless he develops decent offspeed stuff to RHBs, he will be limited. Don’t get me wrong, I like him, and he will be valuable to the Sox, but perhaps not as valuable as other teams think he is right now. If Masterson were a main piece in a package for a decent young catcher, I would be all for it.
by Buzzy on Nov 30, 2008 2:59 PM EST 0 recs
Only under the condition that we get a catcher STRAIGHT UP for him. Otherwise, it would be better to just keep Masterson. I don’t think he performed too much higher than his ceiling; he can hit 95 with rest, has great movement and good breaking pitches. I don’t know why people think he doesn’t have a high ceiling.
Nothing less than Masterson for Taylor Teagarden or Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
by Charger567 on
Nov 30, 2008 3:27 PM EST
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Forget Salty (Max Ramirez is a much better hitting "project" catcher)
I’d trade Masterson to get Teagarden, though. While I like Masterson, he is far better suited to coming out of the pen. As a starter, his fastball sits high 80s/low 90s and he struggles with left-handed hitters (high BB and HR). Out of the pen, Tito can match Masterson up against righties and he can let loose, hitting 95/96 with his fastball (on occasion).
Masterson’s minor league numbers were decent, but nothing special. Here’s how Masterson stacks up against Buchholz and Bowden:
Masterson: (233 IP – 53 G/36 GS)) 3.79 ERA 8.3 H/9 2.28 BB/9 7.45 K/9 1.18 WHIP
Bowden: (405.2 IP – 82 G/79 GS) 3.15 ERA 7.91 H/9 2.35 BB/9 8.64 K/9 1.14 WHIP
Buchholz: (344.1 IP – 74 G/73 GS) 2.43 ERA 6.59 H/9 2.48 BB/9 10.91 K/9 1.01 WHIP
Looking at those numbers, two things jump out immediately: (1) Masterson was used as a reliever about one-third of the time, while Bowden and Buchholz were almost exclusively starters. (2) Masterson’s minor league numbers were, by far, the worst of the three in ERA and K-rate.
If Masterson projects as a reliever, and the Sox intend Bowden and Buchholz to be starters, he has the least value.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on
Nov 30, 2008 4:08 PM EST
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And...
…the title of the last post should not be “Buzzy.”
by Buzzy on Nov 30, 2008 3:00 PM EST 0 recs
Why?
So the Sox sell a proven young player with versatility for what? A prospect catcher?
Seriously, the guy is a MLB player who can fit many roles and was nails in the playoffs as a rookie.
The obvious person to trade is Buchholz who has not proven he can handle anything in any situation.
No way Masterson is traded. It would be like trading Ellsbury bc we have Reddick coming in 3 years.
Also Masterson > than any Texas catcher. Pitching > catching. Proven players > prospects.
baffles me why we want to go and ruin a great bullpen for junk.
Home many people on this site would rather have the Sox trade Masterson than Buchholz? be honest. Buchholz goes IMO.
by SoxAcumen on Nov 30, 2008 3:48 PM EST 0 recs
Proven?
He threw 88.1 innings. That doesn’t prove anything.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on
Nov 30, 2008 3:49 PM EST
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Lol
i guess you missed the big games he came in to hold the 7th and 8th innings?
and compared to what Buchholz and his one no hitter v. a poor team?
by SoxAcumen on
Nov 30, 2008 3:51 PM EST
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His overall numbers looked good
But, in reality, it was a mixed bag—especially in the ALDS where he got lucky on occasion.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on
Nov 30, 2008 4:10 PM EST
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A couple big games...
… do not a proven player make. A couple years of relatively consistent success do. That said, I can’t agree that Masterson’s value “couldn’t be higher” as mentioned in the post. Just look at his numbers compared to Ramon Ramirez’..
Masterson: 6-5, 3.16 ERA, 88IP, 68 IP, ERA + 146
Ramirez: 3-2, 2.64, 71IP, 70 K, ERA + 162
Now, numbers don’t tell the whole story, but it’s hard to argue Masterson had anything more than a solid rookie season. His value could be, in my opinion, quite a bit higher. Say the Sox don’t sign a starter, and they decide to have Masterson step in as the #5 behind Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, and Wake. Say he has a reasonably productive 10-9, 4.10, 175 IP, 115 K year. Well, in that case his value is a lot higher, because he’s proven he can start with reasonable success. And you potentially get more back in return in the event of a trade. And you give Bucholtz another year to develop.
by sggut95 on
Dec 3, 2008 6:26 AM EST
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No way
I would be interested in a poll to see the answer to your question, but really it means nothing. Everyone in the Sox organization knows that Buchholz is more valuable to the Sox than Masterson. I somehow think Theo and Co. know a bit more than you do. Please, do your homework. Look at Masterson’s peripherals (and look at how many HRs he gave up). You cannot escape the fact that he was remarkably LUCKY last year. When you average over a large sample, this always averages out. As a starter his ERA (even w/the luck) was 3.8 or so, and overall he should have been in the mid 4’s-which is where scouting places him anyway. He can’t pitch to righties, and he walks too many guys. Further, don’t give me the proven stuff, his sample is small, and even more so for the playoffs, where he repeatedly got himself in and out of trouble as he did during the season. Lastly, as a starter last year he got progressively worse as he wen on, and never once went 7 innings.
On the other hand, Buchholz was bad, but even with the mechanical issues, he was very UNLUCKY. That is not to say he would have been great, but actually adjusted statistics point to the fact that his poor season is much more similar to Masterson’s good one than you might think. Buch has much better stuff, plain and simple.
There is a reason why nearly everyone in the know (Law, Callis, and presumably the Sox FO) disagree with you. Your line of reasoning would lead to the trading of Santana and Halliday, who were as shitty as Buch at the start.
by Buzzy on
Nov 30, 2008 4:06 PM EST
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Agreed
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on
Nov 30, 2008 4:09 PM EST
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Yep.
Masterson goes before Buchholz, fo shizzle.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on
Nov 30, 2008 8:46 PM EST
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Masterson for Teagarden ? In a heartbeat. Masterson a prospect and Lowrie for a Asdubal Cabrera, Shoppach AND Franklin Guttierez? Yep, I’d do that too. Only reason I say that is because Lugo’s contract to me is not moveable, so might as well ride it out. Cleveland needs a closer and a SS/3B type, Peralta is playing 3B in winterball.
by matzushocka45 on Nov 30, 2008 4:27 PM EST 0 recs
Sure it does. In teenager-speak:
He’d trade Masterson for Teagarden. He’d trade Masterson, Lowrie, and another prospect for Asdrubal Cabrera, Kelly Shoppach, and Franklin Guttierez [wishful thinking], because he thinks Lugo can’t be moved, so we shouldn’t waste the contract. The deal works, in his opinion, because Cleveland needs a future closer and an infielder that might end up at either SS or 3B, because Jhonny Peralta is playing 3B in Winterball.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on
Dec 3, 2008 4:51 PM EST
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I don’t get how that’s wishful thinking? If anything the trade would be wishful thinking from the Indians POV. Guttierez is Coco Crisp, minus speed and is not as good of a hitter as Coco all glove not much else, the perfect 4th OF. Nice one on the teenager-speak.
by matzushocka45 on
Dec 3, 2008 7:30 PM EST
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Neither team would do that.
Maybe w/o Cabrera and the other prospect. But then we’d be missing a SS and I don’t want Lugo wearing a glove anytime in the next twenty years.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on
Dec 3, 2008 8:16 PM EST
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I don’t see the albatross that is Lugo’s contract getting moved.
by matzushocka45 on
Dec 3, 2008 9:37 PM EST
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great post
The fact of the matter is that outside of the Angels, no one seems to have solved the dark art that is year to year consistent, middle relief. Outside of the proven closers, I reckon you should always sell high on relief, especially middle, then just plug in whoever is hot at the time required.
A few years ago it was Timlin, then Oki, then Masterson last year. There’s always some sub. $1mil per year lively arm you can throw in there to get the job done.
by sydneysox on Nov 30, 2008 5:19 PM EST 0 recs
It is posts and ideas like this that make me glad
I do not have to make such decisions as this for a living! Whew, a tough one!
by NG on Nov 30, 2008 7:23 PM EST 0 recs
I'm not adverse to trading Masterson
if the price is right.
Buch is still untouchable for me.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Nov 30, 2008 8:48 PM EST 0 recs
Would another bad year change your mind?
How much slack should Clay be cut?
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on
Nov 30, 2008 10:37 PM EST
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Drugs had some good numbers earlier in this thread. .
Masterson: (233 IP – 53 G/36 GS)) 3.79 ERA 8.3 H/9 2.28 BB/9 7.45 K/9 1.18 WHIP
Bowden: (405.2 IP – 82 G/79 GS) 3.15 ERA 7.91 H/9 2.35 BB/9 8.64 K/9 1.14 WHIP
Buchholz: (344.1 IP – 74 G/73 GS) 2.43 ERA 6.59 H/9 2.48 BB/9 10.91 K/9 1.01 WHIP
That is a significant sample size.
I am still extremely hopeful that Clay will take a big step forward. Even last year, when he lost confidence in his fastball, went through some growing pains, had some health issues, there were some positives (K/9, for one).
But yes, if he put’s up another 1.76 WHIP, I won’t be extremely high on him next year.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on
Dec 1, 2008 12:07 AM EST
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Is he actually "untouchable?"
I’ve never understood why people (and not just you) are constantly categorizing prospects as “untouchable.” Are they really untouchable? I mean there are a ton of players you would give up for Clay Bucholz. I’m sure of it. People have been claiming that Masterson and Buchholz are untouchable. Really? What about Tim Lincecum for masterson/Bucholz? (not saying SF would ever do that) how about getting Hanley back for some of our “untouchable” prospects?
I guess its just a manner of speech, and what you really meant to say was Buch>masterson. This, I agree with.
by BTLove on
Nov 30, 2008 10:42 PM EST
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Hanley is an atrocious defender
at least at SS. From 2006-08, Hanley was -40 according to the Fielding Bible’s Plus/Minus system. That’s second worst, trailing only Capitan Intangible* at -68. If Lowrie plays good defense (or at least average), and bats well (say .280 / .360 / .470) then Hanley isn’t much of an upgrade. I think Hanley is destined for the outfield, probably center field.
I agree with your broader point, that no one is untouchable.
*The Spanish for ‘Intangible’ is ‘Intangible.’
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on
Nov 30, 2008 11:02 PM EST
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+/-
I don’t have all the numbers, only the league leaders/losers for /-, but I saw that -37 of Hanley’s -40 were from 2007, meaning cumulative 20062008 he was only -3. Why is it so inconsistent? Was he a plus defender one of those years? I know Lowrie was a + this year, but could he turn in a -20 next year? I dunno, that stat is so variable year to year its hard to truly believe in it. The one thing it does conclusively prove is that Jeter always sucks defensively.
That line from Lowrie would have made him the best hitting SS in the AL last year. If he does that he is exceeding most expectations.
by BTLove on
Dec 1, 2008 6:59 PM EST
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Hanley had a really good season with the glove this year
I think he’ll stick at SS.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on
Dec 1, 2008 7:49 PM EST
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Certainly
“Untouchable” is a relative term. I wouldn’t trade Buch for any of the “realistic” trade proposals I’ve heard (i.e., not Russ Martin or Albert Pujols).
Middle relievers/set-up men are relatively common. Potential aces aren’t.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on
Nov 30, 2008 11:55 PM EST
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spot on.
This is what I was suggesting above. Potential ace is a big wrap and I’m happy to give it time. Middle relief can always be had a for a decent price. Sell it high and move on.
by sydneysox on
Dec 2, 2008 10:48 PM EST
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Keep the kid
On any trade with any team that could get us a good return, they would ask for Buch or Bowden instead of Masterson. Unless someone screw up, Masterson would be more valuable with us than in a trade. I’d also keep him as a reliever instead of starter.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Dec 1, 2008 12:52 AM EST 0 recs
Reality
Rangers won’t move a catcher (other than maybe Laird) for less than Buchholz or Bowden. Won’t move Teagarden for less then Buccholz. Cleveland could probably be talked out of Shoppach, but they’ll want quite a bit in return, too. Maybe Bowden AND Masterson. Catchers are pricy in trades. That’s why teams take guys like Wieters and Posey so early in the draft.
by sggut95 on Dec 3, 2008 6:41 AM EST 0 recs
do any of you actually watch the games
Masterson has excellent stuff, and even better psych make-up
He will be a great starter for years
trading him would be idiotic
I am surprised that anyone (who watches the games) would think otherwise
by Frank Malzone on Dec 3, 2008 9:03 PM EST 0 recs
He has good stuff.
If he had excellent stuff, he’d be able to get out lefties. But agreed, he has good makeup, and will likely have a good career.
But its not like anyone is advocating DFA’ing him, or trading him for a bag of balls. It’s about finding Tek’s replacement. As I’m sure you know, you have to give to get. Heathcliff Slocumb heists are once in a lifetime. If trading Masterson gets us a top catching prospect, I’m for it.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on
Dec 3, 2008 11:09 PM EST
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Lester, Masterson, Lowrie and Crisp
for Santana
good deal?
it is a mistake to get deal happy. When you find someone who will be a very good pitcher in the big leagues, hold on with both hands
none of the catching “prospects” are sure things. you are not trading for a young all-star
by Frank Malzone on
Dec 4, 2008 8:23 AM EST
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It’s not like Masterson is a young all-star either. He’s a middle reliever/set-up man. Maybe he’ll get to start some this year, but my hunch is he is at best a fourth or fifth starter.
Meanwhile, if we don’t pull the trigger on a trade for a catcher, we’re likely to have a gaping whole there for a couple of seasons.
It’s dangerous to fall in love with your own prospects.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on
Dec 4, 2008 9:31 AM EST
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Agreed
Masterson is a good pitcher with decent stuff. However, he projects more as a reliever than a starter. As a starter, he’d most likely pitch from the back of the rotation. In the minors—a far larger sample size than his 88.1 pro innings—he was OK, but not great. Masterson’s peripherals were not great. In other words, he could pitch just as well as he did last year and give up significantly more runs next year. The Sox have some pretty good pitching prospects already, some of whom project to be better than Masterson.
Frank Malzone misses the point. Masterson isn’t a “sure thing” either. Few young players are. All FOs rate their players based on their ceiling and the likelihood that a particular player will reach his potential. The good organizations are right more often than they are wrong. What has to be weighed is Masterson’s value v. that of whatever player the Sox might deal him for (no one is advocating dumping Masterson or trading him for depth). A good young catcher (provided he can play defense) is worth far more than a middle reliever. If the Sox feel Masterson is a #4 or #5 starter or middle reliever and they can get a good young catcher for him, they’d be stupid not move him.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on
Dec 4, 2008 10:25 AM EST
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Masterson looks like the second coming of Mike Timlin
Who was really quite good for the Red Sox over his career. Timlin was a successful closer for Toronto for a couple years, even winning a World Series there. I think Masterson could have a similar career.
Don’t underestimate the value of a good bullpen. Take a look at Tampa Bay and the Angels. Their ’pens brought them to the playoffs even when the offense produced barely more than the opposing teams.
That being said, relievers are wildly inconsistent year to year, and Masterson has no track record in the majors. He looks like a good set up man, but that doesn’t mean that I wouldn’t trade him in a second for a regular impact player. Is Teagarden or Saltalamacchia an impact player? I don’t know. That’s what the Sox F.O. is paid for.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on
Dec 4, 2008 1:05 PM EST
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Timlin had a good career
I’m not sure how Masterson is the second coming of Timlin. Can you elaborate?
I don’t underestimate the value of a good bullpen (I want my team to have a strong line-up, bench, rotation, and pen). I merely said a good catcher is more important than a good relief pitcher.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on
Dec 4, 2008 1:35 PM EST
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Umm... Coco is no longer available.
And Masterson is going to be a reliever. If you have him pitch for 5+ innings with that arm motion you run the risk of hurting him. As a reliever, he would go usually 1-2 innings, 3 at most, and then he can rest his arm for the rest of the day.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on
Dec 4, 2008 4:02 PM EST
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He was referring...
To the deal that the Twins proposed last year. They were to give up Johan in return for those four players. His point was simply that after seeing the performances of some of those players this year, it seems like we made the right choice in not making that trade.
by Schulz on
Dec 4, 2008 4:12 PM EST
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Oh. I thought he was referring to a trade for Carlos Santana, the Mets catcher prospect...
My bad.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on
Dec 4, 2008 4:29 PM EST
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Even after some innings in the majors, young players are still just prospects
I hate to sound like a broken record because I feel like I’ve said this in other posts, but I feel like there are too many people who take prospects with some potential, and judge them on limited time in the majors. 80 innings does not make Masterson a proven commodity. Ellsbury also did great in the playoffs 2 seasons ago, and then he struggled some this year, he is still a work in progress. There is no guarantee that Masterson won’t stuggle next year.
It seems like if there is a prospect with even some potential, and they perform well in limited innings, there are some ready to crown them as the greatest things (Ellsbury, Masterson), and then when other prospects who might have even more potential struggle in limited innings, they immediately give up on them (Pedrioa the first couple of months when he was called up, Clay, Lester his first year). We can say Masterson is capable of holding it together in bigs, which is a step further in value then last year, but he needs to log much more innings before we can use his MLB stats as a foundation for determining his value. For now, we still have to consider his minor league stats and projected potential as well, and with those two are taken into consideration he is not nearly as untouchable as some might think, and vice-versa Clay is more untouchable (though not completely) then some believe
by Realistic on Dec 4, 2008 12:43 PM EST 0 recs
To avoid confusion, that comment was in response to those above who claim it is crazy to consider trading Masterson
by Realistic on
Dec 4, 2008 12:46 PM EST
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Gabbard
is a good example of a guys with a small sample size of success who didn’t (and won’t) pan out.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on
Dec 4, 2008 1:06 PM EST
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Good points.
IMO, Masterson’s value is near its peak. Let’s look at him from another team’s (Ranger’s) perspective. He’s young, cost-controlled, can pitch relief, can start, had some good ML #s including an ERA of 3.16 and about 7K/9IP.
When considering those facts, any team would like to add him to their roster. Next year, he will either be a decent #4/5 starter or a good reliever. His ERA will almost certainly go up. He will be a year older.
That being said, I think we should trade him. We have three other guys who can pitch the 7th/8th innings (Oki, Ramirez, Delcarmen), and three other young RHPs (Bucc, Bowden, Bard).
Let’s see if we can get Teagarden for Masterson and two more prospects (Hagadone + Middlebrooks?)
by Schulz on
Dec 4, 2008 4:24 PM EST
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Agreed but torn
I understand exactly what you are saying. Masterson’s stock will probably never be higher. Now is a good time to sell, and I would be ok with selling him if we get something good in return.
On the flip side, you can never have enough pitching. NEVER.
by drabidea on
Dec 5, 2008 8:57 AM EST
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Exactly
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on
Dec 4, 2008 12:58 PM EST
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