The 2009 Boston Red Sox

by Sawxfan on Nov 24, 2008 9:34 PM EST

The Offseason has officially begun, here's my projections for the opening day lineup for the Red Sox, as well as the rotation and bullpen......

Jacoby Ellisbury CF #46
Dustin Pedroia 2B #15
David Ortiz DH #34
Mark Teixeira 1B #24
Kevin Youlilis 3B #20
Jason Bay LF #44
J.D Drew RF #7
Jason Varitek C #33
Jed Lowrie SS #12

Pitching Rotation

John Lester
Dice-K
Josh Beckett
Kenshin Kawakami
Tim Wakefield/Clay Bucholtz

And the Bullpen.....

CL J.Papelpon
SU J.Masterson
RP R.Ramirez
RP H.Okajima
RP M.Delcarman

(Notice the switch of Lester and Beckett in the rotation and the possibility of Tim Wakefield loosing his job. As well ad Kenshin Kawakami signing with the Red Sox)

Just a side note to this regarding Mark Teixeira, MLB.com reports that Tex's agent Scott Boras has refuted a report that the Sox made an offer to Tex.

Poll

Will Jason Varitek re-sign with the Red Sox?

Yes

21 votes

No

7 votes

28 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 19 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

Kawakami

I think it’s highly unlikely the Red Sox sign the 33-year-old Kenshin Kawakami. Not when there are proven MLB players like Burnett, Sheets, or Lowe around. Japanese starters don’t have the greatest of track records in the US (relievers have been better). Hideo Nomo’s the only one I know of who was consistently good. With a few more good years, Matsuzaka and Kuroda would also be in the picture. But for every Nomo, there are three Hideki Irabus.

No to Tek. A conditional Yes to Tex (condition: we get good value for Mikey).

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 24, 2008 10:04 PM EST reply actions

We've already offered to him, and from what he says...

he’d take a mediocre offer from us over a huge offer from most other teams.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bdalebs on Nov 26, 2008 12:43 PM EST up reply actions

Tazawa has reportedly accepted Boston's offer.

But I haven’t heard anything about Kawakami doing so. Please put up a link, if you have one.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 26, 2008 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

Oops, sorry, got my imports mixed up.

by bdalebs on Nov 26, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions

As for the lineup...

Unless Jacoby kills it in the spring, I’d move him to the bottom, and let Duty lead off with JD in the two hole. No reason to have your 7th best hitter leading off (though most mlb managers would disagree.)

by BTLove on Nov 25, 2008 6:33 PM EST reply actions

+1

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 25, 2008 7:34 PM EST up reply actions

"Duty"?

Duty Pedroia? Sounds like a 50s superhero.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 25, 2008 9:38 PM EST up reply actions

DP's not a lead off hitter.

Too much power, not enough speed.

by bdalebs on Nov 26, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions

Thats true if you buy into the traditional role of leadoff hitter,

Most of what I’ve read concludes that you should design a batting order by descending OBP. I remember reading a Bill James blip and he was comparing how many runs the Sox score with different players starting innings. The innings that were led off by Ortiz had higher expected runs than those led off by Coco (who was our “leadoff” guy).

I have always thought the whole speed requirement at the top of the order was dumb. I’d don’t like when we steal bases in front of guys with power, because the power of the guys hitting back in the order almost negates the value of the stolen base. Either way, hitting Jacoby on top of the order is just a waste (unless he starts getting on base). Leadoff with JD or Dusty or even Youk, just not Jacoby.

by BTLove on Nov 30, 2008 1:39 AM EST up reply actions

Bill James

His method says put your highest SLG in the #3, highest OPS in the #4 and then put desending OBP for 1, 2, 5, 6,7,8,9.

Speed is overrated, think about Youk of 2 years ago. This makes JD Drew the perfect candidate for the lead off slot. He has the highest OBP of the team with .408 and runs the base path very well.

If we acquire Tex, it becomes even more prominent. There is no point having a guy with a .408 OBP hitting in the #7 slot in the lineup.

by drabidea on Nov 30, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions

Interesting

Following these guidelines, our 2008 lineup would have been: { Name (OBP) }
1. Pedroia (.376)
2. Bay (.370)
3. Youk (Highest SLG [.569] and OPS) (.390)
4. Drew (2nd highest SLG and OPS [.927]) (.408)
5. Ortiz (.369)
6. Lugo/Lowrie (.355/.339)
7. Crisp/Ellsbury (.344/.336)
8. Lowell (.338)
9. Tek (.313)

by Schulz on Nov 30, 2008 10:01 PM EST up reply actions

Jacoby

Dustin Pedroia can’t lead off. He just simply isn’t quick enough. If Jacoby can’t lead off, than J.D could. He’s actually done well in the past at that spot…….

by Sawxfan on Nov 27, 2008 10:10 AM EST reply actions

Speed isn't key.

You don’t want someone running into outs ahead of the middle of the lineup. You want them on base to score, so the most important skill for a leadoff hitter is the ability to reach base. Dustin is pretty good at that, which is why he gets some consideration. As for speed, he did steal 20 bases in 21 attempts, which I hear is some good. However, that’s more a testament to intelligent baserunning, rather than blazing speed (a la Ellsbury).

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 27, 2008 11:49 AM EST up reply actions

Agreed

Speed is overrated. Good baserunning—the ability to go from first to third on a single—is more important than base-stealing. If Jacoby can’t get on base, he is useless as a lead-off hitter.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 27, 2008 11:55 AM EST up reply actions

+1

Pedroia did lead the AL in runs last year

by drabidea on Nov 27, 2008 9:43 PM EST up reply actions

OBP

Yes, Pedroia gets on base but he is a doubles machine as well. Wouldn’t you want a patient singles hitter who draws walks in front of him. I think he’s the ideal #2 hitter.

by Schulz on Nov 29, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions