Has everyone forgotten how highly touted Buchholz was just one year ago?

Though Buchholz gave up way too many runs (and wayyy too many home runs, at a rate of one every seven innings), his numbers may not be as bad as they appeared, and hopefully we will see a regression to the mean next season. For one thing, his strikeout total remained stable (actually, it exceeded his PECOTA projection by about one K/inning). For another, his Delta-H, a statistic that tries to measure the effect of BABIP on pitchers, was a whopping 15 (14th highest in the majors), which means that the added three hits per nine innings, while troubling high, shouldn’t continue into 2009.

From “Peter’s Red Sox Forever,” an MLB scout watching Buchholz in Arizona has this to say about the future star:

"I think he’s gained some of his swagger back. He lost some confidence during the year, but his velocity was back. He was throwing 91-95, and was free and easy. He had a dominant curveball and a plus change. He didn’t need his slider. He looked focused on the mound. It looked to me like his arm slot was the same as it used to be, with a high three-quarters release, which adds to the depth of his breaking ball. This guy has three plus pitches and should be a front-of-the-rotation starter. His ceiling is very high."

The basic fact is that Clay Buchholz is a 23-year-old stud, who let too many games get away from him in the most competitive division in baseball. Be patient with the kid and hope we can trade for quality catching with the likes of Bowden and Masterson.