Thinking about Theo's comments

by reversecursing on Nov 17, 2008 6:19 PM EST Comment 59 comments

Recently, Theo has said that he wants the Sox to be average at least in every position. He also said that, the Sox can choose to be above average, or even elite (his word) in some positions. This is a good philosophy to have, of course.

Looking at the reality of Teixeira coming to Boston, or lack therof, the Red Sox could and should be players in other positions to upgrade offensively.

What are some positions that the Red Sox could upgrade at, to make a difference? Shortstop, catcher and possibly third base comes to mind.

This is pure speculation, but what if the Sox were able to add a better shortstop?Could JJ Hardy become available from the Brewers? Suddenly, one of the Red Sox' weaknesses becomes a strength and we upgrade from an average Lowrie, to an elite Hardy.

I'm unaware if Doug Melvin wants to deal his young shortstop, but if so, the Sox should look to upgrade.

Hardy would command some very nice prospects. Would a package of Lowrie, Buccholz/ Masterson, and Bowden get the job done?

Another position the Red Sox will most likely become average/ above average at is Catcher. Varitek should be better next year, but it is not a guaruntee. A trade for one of Texas' young catchers would push the Sox to be at least average at catcher, a position, where the Sox were well-below average last year.

The Red Sox will look into the Teixeira sweepstakes, but in the end the Mike Lowell situation will be the end to that dream. If the Sox were able to acquire Hardy, it would continue the Epstein philosophy of adding young and talented players.

Back in May, when the Brewers visited the Sox, it looked like Hardy would be a perfect fit for Fenway as he crushed two homeruns against Beckett.

A Hardy trade, would allow the Sox to sign a SP like Derek Lowe. This is mere speculation, but it would be nice for the Sox to have a better longterm shortstop other than Lowrie.

Pedroia 2B (until Ellsbury can prove he can consistently get on base)
JJ Hardy (Usually hit #2 in Milwuakee)
David Ortiz DH
Kevin Youkils 1B
Jason Bay LF
Mike Lowell 3B
JD Drew RF
Jason Varitek/ Saltalamacchia C
Ellsbury CF

I would agree with a somewhat platoon of Varitek/ Saltalamacchia. This lineup would give us good balance and would give the Red Sox more options in free agency this year.

What do you guys think?

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Don't really like the idea

Lowrie is one the Sox’s better prospects. It makes no sense to abandon him after just half a season at the major league level. He should be able to develop into a player at least as good as Hardy is within the next few years. As for Salty, the Rangers are asking for either Buchholz, or two of Masterson/Hagadone/Bowden, which is too steep a price if you ask me. I would love to sign Teixeira though, even if its at 8yr/160mil.

by Gnick on Nov 17, 2008 6:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hardy wasn't that great the last time I checked.

He had one good season, but regressed big time, IIRC.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 17, 2008 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He actually improved from 2007

But yeah I would say he’s good not great. He has good power numbers for a SS though with .463 and .478 SLG%s from the past two seasons. I’d imagine he could be slugging around .500 during his prime in Fenway.

by Gnick on Nov 17, 2008 11:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He was very streaky the past two year. Both years he had 2 really good months, and then the rest of the season went from average to awful, not someone I would call elite.

Oh, and FYI, his OBP in fenway was .125, given this is a very small sample size, but I don’t think you can watch a guy hit one HR in fenway and anoint him a good fit for fenway. (It was one HR by the way, not two). I would venture to predict that Lowrie develops into just as good of a player as JJ

by Realistic on Nov 18, 2008 10:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Streaky as they come

Hardy’s line in 2008 was pretty good: .283/.343/.478, good for a .821 OPS. I don’t think that Lowrie will hit for quite that much power, but I think that he can approach an .800 OPS over the next couple seasons.

In my opinon, a streaky guy is fine for the bottom third of the order, but you want a guys with a consistent approach in the top of the line up. I also would never bat the Destroia first with the pop he showed last year. He has #2 written all of him.

How much would we have to give up for Hardy?

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Nov 18, 2008 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget he played the whole year with a fractured hand

If he was merely “average” with a fractured wrist, how good could he be healthy and with a little experience?

by RSNexile on Nov 18, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

with the way the yanks are pushing, the sox need to get tex to bolster the lineup. but jj might be a good idea. How about a Lugo +prospects trade?

"We're not going to give up," It doesn't happen, so who cares? There's always next year. It's not like it's the end of the world."

by revigik on Nov 17, 2008 7:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lugo de-values (is that a word?) the trade

For any team to take Lugo off our hands, we would need to add extra prospects. He brings down the value of any package we send to a team.

by Schulz on Nov 17, 2008 8:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow.

I mispelled Youkilis.

Shaaaaaaame on me.

"Why not us?"

by reversecursing on Nov 17, 2008 7:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm kind.

There should be an “EDIT” button at the bottom of the story, on the same line as Email, Print, etc.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 17, 2008 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also, this graph has major issues:

Another position the Red Sox will most likely become average/ above average at is Catcher. Varitek should be better next year, but it is not a guaruntee. A trade for one of Texas’ young catchers would push the Sox to be at least average at catcher, a position, where the Sox were well-below average last year.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 17, 2008 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Drop the comma after "A Hardy trade" in the 'graph before the lineup.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 17, 2008 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rookie mistakes

I apologize

"Why not us?"

by reversecursing on Nov 17, 2008 7:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow. I suck.

~~Rookie~~ Mistakes. Horrible grammar.

"Why not us?"

by reversecursing on Nov 17, 2008 7:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why was that wrong?

Just read over once, be uber-critical.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 17, 2008 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The offer you put up for Hardy would get us Teagarden.

Way overshot there.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 17, 2008 7:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Teagarden

Is a good young catcher, but Hardy is proven. Why would Teagarden demand more?

Hardy is a realistic bat that we could get, I probably should have mentioned this but the Brewers have a stud shortstop coming up through the minors. Alcides Escobar figures to be the starting shortstop probably as soon as 2010.

Our MI would be set for a very long time.

"Why not us?"

by reversecursing on Nov 17, 2008 7:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Potential is the name of the minor league game.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 17, 2008 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Texas Catchers

I hear a lot about Salty and Teagarden, and even about Laird, but I haven’t heard a word about Max Ramirez. What’s his deal? Can the kid play? Why hasn’t his name come up?

by Schulz on Nov 17, 2008 8:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Most people think Ramirez is not at all

a potential long-term catcher defensively, from what I’ve gathered.

Salty, with the right coaching and some patience, could be.

Laird is already at worst a decent defensive option behind the plate.

Teagarden is seen as being the best of both: already pretty good defensively and a great bat for the position.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Nov 17, 2008 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Max Ramirez

Is also the farthest away from the major league level. The Sox need help in a more immediate fashion.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Nov 18, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

for the info fellas

by Schulz on Nov 18, 2008 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You do realize that Jed was injured for most of the end of the year?

http://www.overthemonster.com/2008/10/23/640979/jed-lowrie-just-wow

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 17, 2008 7:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I know

I’d like Lowrie as a utility guy. Hardy would be a beast at Fenway.

"Why not us?"

by reversecursing on Nov 17, 2008 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A packeage of Lowrie, Buchholz/ Masterson, and Bowden for Hardy?

That’s way too much. If the M’s move Hardy it’s because they have someone else for the position. While Hardy is an upgrade over Lowrie/Lugo right now, he isn’t worth Lowrie and two of the Sox’ top pitching prospects.

The Sox need a catcher more than a SS. I’d rather have Teagarden than Salty, who Texas wanted Buchholz or “two out of the Justin Masterson/Nick Hagadone/Michael Bowden trio” (according to Gammons). Since the Sox don’t seem like they’re making that trade for a catcher, I don’t see them shipping top pitching propspects for a SS, a position where the Sox are decent.

By the way, Buchholz clearly has more value than either Masterson or Bowden; otherwise Texas wouldn’t as for just him or a combination including the other two in a deal for Salty. I posted this earlier. It’s from a recent Keith Law chat on ESPN (11/14):

eric(lakeville): would it really take more than a package of bowden and bard for teargarden? Is just buchholz enough?

Keith Law: (2:23 PM ET ) I imagine the Rangers would take either offer. Not sure if the Red Sox would do either one, though. They’ve hesitated on Buchholz, for good reason, and they either love Bowden or they’ve done a nice job of boosting his value via hype.

Brendan (Rathmines, Ireland): Should the Sox deal Clay Buchholz now, even with his value diminished with the terrible season, or retain him and hope he recovers some? I know that was the thinking on Craig Hansen…

Keith Law: (2:18 PM ET ) I think they’d be selling low on Buchholz. He’s not Hansen. Better delivery, better secondary stuff.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 17, 2008 8:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Sox need an impact bat

I believe the addition of Saltalamacchia/Teagarden and Hardy would greatly improve the offense. The money that we were planning to spend on Teixeira would alow us to sign Derek Lowe.

For the Red Sox to get Hardy, they will have to give up a pitching prospect. I don’t know if the Sox would be willing to make that deal, but it is worth exploring.

It’s just another option to improve the offense, if the whole Mark Teixeira pipe dream doesn’t pan out.

"Why not us?"

by reversecursing on Nov 17, 2008 9:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lowrie, Buchholz / Masterson, and Bowden

would get you Peavy easily. It might get you Joe Mauer or Hanley Ramirez.

You’re trading three top prospects, all of them at or close to the major league level. That’s like 15 cost-controlled years altogether of some very promising players.

Hardy is absolutely not worth this much. He has poor base-reaching skills – his career OBP is .329. For comparison, Julio Lugo has a career OBP of .335.

Hardy does play good defense. The Fielding Bible‘s Plus-Minus has him at +33 over the last 3 years. And he’s hit for good power the past two years. I don’t see him as an impact bat, though, like Teixeira, in part because he’s never topped 30 HR, and in part because his OBP has never been good. The marginal upgrade he’d provide over Lowrie isn’t likely to be much.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 17, 2008 10:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+8,000 hundred billion.

Hardy is not worth this package. I’m not entirely against acquiring him if the Brewers for some reason wanted to sell low. That FO and ownership seems smarter than that though.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Nov 17, 2008 10:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 17, 2008 10:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Selling low

I don’t know why everyone keeps saying that the Brewers would be selling low on Hardy now, or that he had an off season last year. He improved his AVG, OBP, and SLG from 2007.

by Gnick on Nov 20, 2008 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not as much buzz about him?

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 20, 2008 7:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Where could the Sox upgrade their offense?

Besides adding Mark Teixeira. I’m afraid the Sox offense is going to be mediocre next year without an improvement.

"Why not us?"

by reversecursing on Nov 17, 2008 11:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Maybe.

In a really cute and totally unscientific oversimplification, Bay (128 OPS+ in a Sox uniform) + Lowrie (90 and hurt) are cumulatively Being (136) + Lugo (78). 218 > 216. And that’s without getting into the defense improvements.

Tex would be gravy. Really really good gravy. But even if we don’t get him, I’ve gotta think either Papi or Lowell will rebound big next year. Plus (hopefully) a catcher who isn’t a total black hole, maybe a little improvement from Ells, and we’re a touch better than we were last year, when we were second in the AL.

Though I still want the gravy. I’d love Tex to fill the clean-up spot for the next 8 or so years.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 17, 2008 11:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If we somehow get Tex....

It won’t even be funny how many runs we score….

1. Ellsbury
2. Pedroia
3. Teixeira
4. Ortiz
5. Youk
6. Bay
7. Drew
8. Salty/ Tek
9. Lowrie/ Lugo

Filthy

"Why not us?"

by reversecursing on Nov 17, 2008 11:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mmmm.... gravy!

Plus a side of stuffing.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Nov 18, 2008 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanksgiving is next week

Who’s excited?

by Schulz on Nov 18, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ME.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 18, 2008 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ortiz?

If Ortiz gets back into his pre-surgery form, that would be a massive increase.

by RickD on Nov 19, 2008 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

trading Masterson would be idiotic

period

by Frank Malzone on Nov 17, 2008 11:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lineup

Just out of curiousity. Not to point out reversecursing, because he is not the only person I have seen do it. Why does everyone have in next years lineup Youk batting before Bay.

Bay has a career .891 OPS and 131 OPS+. He has had two years where he batted under .900 OPS.

Youk has a career .847 OPS and 119 OPS+. He has had one year above .900 OPS.

Bill James perdicts Youk to hit .873 and Bay to hit .881.

I can see that Youk has had more recent success (Last Year) but I wouldn’t automatically give him a spot in front of Bay.

by drabidea on Nov 18, 2008 8:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed 100%

I’ve seen so many proposed lineups in which Jason Bay is batting 6th. 6th! That is far too low for a player like him. He needs to be 3, 4, or 5.

by Schulz on Nov 18, 2008 9:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

who cares about career stats?

Youkilis has become a much better hitter than he was pre-2006. Over the past four years, his slugging % has gone .405, .429, .453, .569. Youkilis is right now a better hitter than Bay. With Manny’s departure, Youk is the best hitter on the team.

by RickD on Nov 19, 2008 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2008

Bay .286 AVG, .373 OBP, .522 SLG, 31 HR, 101 RBI, 111 R
Youk .312 AVG, .390 OBP, .569 SLG, 29 HR, 108 RBI, 115 R

I can’t decide who i like better. I think Youk had a career year in 2008 and won’t put up those numbers again. His average will drop, as will his slugging a little bit. Once that happens, these two will be very similar players, with Youk having an advantage due to his superior OBP skills. Here’s my lineup without Tex:
Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youk, Ortiz, Bay, Drew, Lowell, Tek/Other, Lowrie

With Teixeira, I’d put him third and bump everybody else down until Lowell gets pushed out (sorry Mike).

by Schulz on Nov 19, 2008 11:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just realized

Sox Devil said the same thing below me. Oops

by Schulz on Nov 19, 2008 11:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would run out this line-up:

Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youk, Ortiz, Bay, Drew, Lowell, Lowrie, Tek.

Flip-flop Youk/Bay if you wish, but I love Youk’s ability to hit everything. Bay is a little weaker hitting breaking balls.

I’m as guilty as the rest of OTM for wishing Teixieira into a Red Sox uniform, but that’s a pretty great line up. Assuming Lowell is productive at all, it’s amazing what sort of depth he adds. The ALCS demonstrated that sufficiently, I think.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Nov 18, 2008 12:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

P.S.

If we do score Teixeira, can you imagine batting ANY of Youk, Papi, Bay, or Drew 7th? Sweet jebus. That might be one circumstance where I’d pump Pedroia to lead-off and move Ellsbury to the bottom of the order…

Pedroia, Drew, Teixiera, Ortiz, Youkilis, Bay, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Tek.

I bat Ortiz 4th because Tex is a far better base-runner. I left out Lowell for obvious reasons. Ellsbury is 7th primarily to avoid three right-handers in a row.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Nov 18, 2008 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like it

I might even switch Drew and Pedroia. Drew’s OBP is outrageous and still has some pretty good legs.

Don’t forget Tek and Lowrie are switch hitters.

by drabidea on Nov 18, 2008 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Switch Drew and Ellsbury!

And then flip Ellsbury and Lowrie! WIN!

I dunno. Just feel like Drew’s OBP skills will be wasted more than they should be ahead of Lowell, Lowrie, ’Tek/catcher.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Nov 18, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Drew

Is an excellent fastball hitter. Both he and Bay would do extremely well in the 2-hole and see a lot of juicy pitches to hit. There’s typically a precipitous drop-off in talent in every team’s line-up. The guy in front of the drop-off rarely sees anything good to hit. In ‘07-’08 that was often JD Drew.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Nov 19, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

batting order

I would bat Drew seventh. I like having his RBI abilities in the bottom of the order.
I also think Jacoby can turn it around a be the leadoff hitter we all envision.

Ellsbury, Pedroia, Tex, Ortiz, Bay, Youk, Drew, Tek/Salty?/Teagarden?, Lowrie
Wow.

Also, Cleveland needs a 3B. Any chance we could send Lowell+cash (money, not the catcher) for Shoppach? Would it take more than that?

Chicago (WhiteSox) need a 3B too. Could we send Lowell+Crisp for Vazques+a prospect?

These are all hypotheticals for if we sign Tex. Who else is in the market for a 3B?

by Schulz on Nov 18, 2008 5:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What a waste

I saw a correlation between the spot in the line-up and average number of PA (plate attempts) per year, but a Google search wasn’t helpful this time.

I would rather give Drew the extra PAs over the course of the season than Ellsbury.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Nov 19, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 19, 2008 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ugh

That’s the same lineup that couldn’t score against the Rays, except Crisp has been replaced by Ellsbury, who couldn’t hit worth beans down the stretch.

by RickD on Nov 19, 2008 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A healthy Papi and Lowell makes that a very different lineup than wht we saw in the ALCS.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 19, 2008 8:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Upgrading

Since the topic was Upgrading….Now that Coco is gone

My question is….Who are the replacements for Casey, Kotsay, possibly Cora?

Who are good fits that we could get cheap? Do you pull up young players and put them in the mix?

~ ROLL TIDE ~

GO SOX!!

by Bama Sox on Nov 19, 2008 12:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Some ideas

I don’t think the Red Sox front office will be content with Jeff Bailey and/or Chris Carter. I expect them to sign a free agent for the 4th OF back-up role. How about Woonsocket, RI’s own, Rocco Baldelli?

Baldelli is frequently injured (hammies), and has some sort of mitochondrial disorder that robs him of energy, but he can play a couple times per week. And he’s a decent player when he’s active.

Other possibilities include Casey Blake, Hairston, Jr., Kevin Mench, Emil Brown, and Brad Wilkerson. Blake offers some nice flexibility as a 2nd/3rd-string 3B.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Nov 19, 2008 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Blake will likely get a starting job somewhere

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 19, 2008 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Blake is in for a big payday. Somehow he is the best 3B on the open market and somebody well give him $10MM a year for like 3 years.

I think Casey+Kotsay will be replaced by one player who can play OF and 1B.

by Schulz on Nov 19, 2008 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Baldelli can't start because of his mitochondrial disorder

He doesn’t have the energy or stamina.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Nov 20, 2008 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs