Sox trade Lugo for Dontrelle Willis?
by Randy Booth on Nov 16, 2008 12:15 PM EST
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PrintThe Globe's Nick Cafardo writes the Red Sox could trade Julio Lugo to the Tigers for a pitcher like Dontrelle Willis:
Detroit - The front office got the word late last week that it could keep the payroll at about $134 million, same as last season, which means they can sign a cheap free agent (Darren Oliver, Hoffman) or two. A far cry from last season, when they went all out and had nothing to show for it. They're also contemplating a deal with Boston to send either Nate Robertson or Dontrelle Willis for Lugo, but some money issues must be resolved.
Trading Lugo has always made sense to me, whether it's for a couple of nicely crafted bats or a bushell of baseballs. But for Dontrelle Willis? Eww. Gross.
Look at Willis' stats last season, in limited action for the Tigers: 24.0 IP, 35 BB, 18 SO with a 9.38 ERA. That's 35 walks in 24 innings! Holy crap! He really is the pitching-version of Lugo!
Robertson -- also bad, but pitched more -- could be a "Willis-lite." Seven wins, 11 losses last season with a 6.35 ERA in 168 innings pitched. Basically, it comes down to how much crap do the Red Sox want to carry on their back next season.
Am I crazy to think that this isn't even worth it? I honestly believe Lugo is more valuable than either Willis or Robertson. At least Lugo can give us speed. If he can't do anything else, he's fast. Check -- he already has more to offer than Willis or Robertson right there.
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Exactly
We know Willis can’t pitch.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 16, 2008 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
Yep
There have been a lot of pitchers turning into hitters lately. D-Train should think about that…
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 16, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
Veto this deal
At least Lugo has value as a utility man. There’s a good chance that Dontrelle would be waived outright if he performs for the Sox the way he did for the Tigers.
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 16, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
+2
I think Willis is cooked unless he goes Ankiel.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
Oh god.
That wind up from the OF. I just threw up.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
No one on the Detroit likes this deal either
In fact, I bet most Tigers fans would argue they’re a better team with Willis.
Interesting how the two sides look at this deal, and how they both hate it.
by Ian Casselberry on Nov 16, 2008 3:39 PM EST reply actions
For the sake of both teams
Let’s hope this is just a rumor.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 16, 2008 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
It is Sunday...
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
Yes, let us pray
Lugo is outta here……period.
by ccthemovieman on Nov 16, 2008 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
This trade
Doesn’t make any sense to me. Yes, we do get rid of Lugo. However, we will also take on an atrocious pitcher. Not only that, but this pitcher is going to make $22MM over the next two years. I believe Lugo is set to make $18MM in that time span?
At least Lugo can’t single-handedly loose a game for us, the way D-Train can.
What do they mean when they say, “but some money issues must be resolved…” Does that mean they want us to absorb some of Lugo’s contract in addition to taking on Willis’s? If so, I hope theo very politely slams the door in their face.
+8 billion.
I want neither Robertson nor Willis. Even if they were giving them to us for free. I’d rather just give them Lugo for nothing.
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"
by Allen Chace on Nov 17, 2008 12:11 AM EST up reply actions
Huzzah for the open roster spot!
If anyone would take Lugo and his salary for nothing, I’d say do it!
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
Or just him.
I’d round up the money from fans at ballparks.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
I don't understand the hating
I strongly dislike Julio Lugo so I’m sure that has a lot to do with it, but I don’t understand why everyone is so opposed to bring Willis to the Sox. We would not ask him to be our number 1-3 starter since Beckett, Lester and Dice-K already are established there. Then we have Wakefield, Buch, Bowden, Masterson. If at least one of those guys gets traded for a catcher then we’re down 1 or 2 starters and still stuck with a crappy utility guy who only offers us speed. We need to get rid of Lugo.
In 261 ABs last year, he managed to be responsible for 216 outs, whether it came from his 13 grounded in to double plays (tied with Tek for third on the team; Tek had 423 at bats) or his caught stealing 1 out of 4 times. I don’t put a lot of stock in to stealing bases, but when the guy is supposed to be valued for his speed, I would expect a better percentage (like Jacoby’s roughly 1 out of 6 times, lofty comparision i know). I refuse to believe we couldn’t find a utility player that can at least try not to suck as bad as Lugo has.
As far as Dontrelle goes, why would this be any different than when we took a gamble on Colon. I’ll agree that the past two years of Willis have been awful, but if we were to bring him on board and have him work out his problems in spring training/minors he could surprise us. Three years ago he had 170 strikeouts to go with a 2.63 ERA, his teammate on the Marlins at the time had a 3.37 ERA and 166 strikeouts, that was Beckett. I am not saying he is a better pitcher than Josh, but he has the potential to be up there. Yeah it was verse the National League playing in Florida’s home stadium, but that’s still pretty good.
Take away last years horrible season and you still have a young pitcher (27 at the start of next season), who has struggled, but has proven that he can pitch in the majors. If we can’t sign any of the free agents that we are going after, I see no reason why we can’t cut the deadweight of Lugo and take a gamble on Willis. If we convince Tek to come back for one or two years, Willis could benefit from working with one of the best game callers in the majors.
You can never have too much pitching, but you can have too many blackholes in the lineup, and getting rid of Lugo would solve that problem. Buy low, I say, as long as it’s as close to a straight up deal as possible. I mean come on, Lugo has had two years to perform here and has done nothing for us, give D-Train a chance to at least be a fill in number 4-5 starter.
Please feel free to let me have it, but I am just tired of Lugo being on this team.
Homer: Kids, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.
by DougieWentDeep on Nov 17, 2008 11:55 AM EST reply actions
Lugo is worth more to the Sox
Sure you never have enough pitching. But Willis can’t pitch. In 2007, Willis had a 5.17 ERA with a .297 BAA, while allowing 29 HR, in a pitcher’s ballpark. Last year, he had an ERA over 9.38 with the Tigers. Willis only made 7 starts on a team that needed pitching. That says something.
Willis signed a 3-year/$29 million extension with the Tigers. Thus, any comparison between Dontrelle and Colon (who had an incentive contract) is foolish. Willis makes more than Lugo. He would be the #8 starter on the Sox, with the second-highest pitcher’s salary.
The Sox don’t need highly-paid crap starters. You don’t take on pitching projects that earn nearly $10 million.
As for Lugo, the Sox currently need a SS. Lowrie may win the job. But last year he struggled as a left-handed hitter. Until he shows he can hit righties, Lugo is insurance. Lugo may not be popular with Sox fand (he is with his teammates). But he is a major league SS, a position Alex Cora can no longer play.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 17, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
understandable
…but i still hate that bastard
Homer: Kids, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.
by DougieWentDeep on Nov 17, 2008 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
Lowrie was hurt: http://www.overthemonster.com/2008/10/23/640979/jed-lowrie-just-wow
Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!
Well said
plus the Sox FO isn’t brain-dead, so they won’t make a deal unless they see one of those pitchers is worth the deal, not “atrocious.”
You have to trust Boston knows what it is doing.
by ccthemovieman on Nov 17, 2008 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
The biggest issue with Dontrelle
is that we would have to put him on the 25 man roster. He wouldn’t be able to send him to Pawtucket if he doesn’t want to (someone correct me if I’m wrong about this), so if he suck again, we wouldn’t really have any option other than cut him (and be on the hook for his whole salary). An entirely ineffective pitcher is worthless on the roster. Lugo on the other hand, can at least provide value as a serviceable backup ss.
That’s only half true. Yes it is true that he could refuse to go down, but last year with the Tigers he agreed to go down to the minors because he agreed that he needed to work on his control, so who’s to say he wouldn’t do the same for us?
If somehow we could be assured that he would accept an assignment to the minors, I would be much more agreeable to the trade, though I’m not sure this would be allowed by the union. I agree with most of what you say below, but I think theres just too much of a chance he could refuse the assignment and then we’re stuck with him.
Couple of point (and this is just my view, disagree if you would like):
Lugo is owed $18 mil over the next two years, Willis $22, and Robertson $17, regardless of what we do, we’re overpaying someone to mostly sit on the bench, there’s no way around that. With that said, if we are taking on a lot of lugo’s contract AND all of who ever we take, then definitely don’t do it, but it is just swapping players (even if that means taking on the addition 4 mil Willis is set to make over what Lugo would make) then I say do it, and here’s why:
- Lugo is 33, Willis is 26. Of the two, Willis has a much better chance of returning to his golden years, the fact that age-wise (not performance wise) he still is in his golden years
- I think you CAN compare him as a reclamation project to Colon because yes he is technically getting paid too much to be considered a low risk reclamation project, but if we didn’t make a trade we’d have Lugo on the bench burning up the same money, so that is 18 mil that is getting burnt regardless, and just like in Business when making decisions, you don’t take sunk cost into consideration. So really, if hypothetically they were traded straight up, it is 4 mil over 2 years cost to us (the difference in what they are owed)
- He has had 2 bad seasons, one where he injuried his knee and one where he stuggled with control and AGREED to be sent down to the minors to work on it (meaning he’s willing to put in the effort to fix whatever is wrong)
- Youk didn’t get a full time gig until he was 27, and before that was still consider a “project” and not considered a long term solution. Paps didn’t get a full-time job unitl 25, Bay was 25, Lowell was 25, Wake was 26….my point is, Willis right now is the age that many people are just entering the majors. So to say he’s cooked because he’s struggling with control seems silly, and in my opinion the more appropriate thing to say is that he needs some time in the minor to refine his control (like many top prospects at his age do, who then go on to enter the Majors and do just fine) and the fact that he has precedent (his career minus the last 2 years where he pitched from average, to above average, to great) suggests that it’s very possible that he could.
So basically, for me it comes down to the dollar, if they want us to pick up a good amount of Lugo’s, forget it. If they just want us to pick up Willis contract, i’ll take a 2 mill a year extra over what we would pay lugo to burn cash on the bench to give Willis a Colon like shot at working out his control issues in the minors.
And if your arguement is that Lugo is more then 18 mil burning on the bench because of speed he can provide off the bench I would argue that we could give near to league minimum to someone who is fast who has no batting skill to come off the bench, and with Willis in the minors, you don’t have to worry about him taking an extra spot on the 25 man roster, so in fact getting rid of Lugo frees up a spot, because unlike Willis he would never agree to go down to the minors to free up a spot on the roster
Good Points
Although I have lots of doubts about this trade, it might be worth taking the chance. About a year and a half ago, I was claiming that Lester’s ceiling was as a number 4 (maybe #3) starter in the rotation because his lack of control was causing him to only pitch about 4 or 5 inning per start. This year, Lester proved to me that control (or lack thereof) is not something that can’t be overcome.
Worst case scenario, Willis sucks and he sits on our bench, and we’re no worse off than we were with Lugo.
Makes no difference to me who you trade Lugo for JUST
GET RID OF HIM. As to his only skill, his speed, even that is in jeopardy now that he has leg muscle injuries or whatever happened to him. He must Go and now!
NG makes sense!!!
EXTRA! EXTRA! READ ALL ABOUT IT!!! RESIDENT DOOM-THEORIST CALMS!!!
I kid.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
It does make a difference in a trade
I’d rather have Lugo than Willis. Dontrelle is dead weight and makes more than Lugo. The Sox don’t need a $10 million project pitcher. They’re better off with depth at SS. I’d rather see the Sox release Lugo, and pay him this year if some team picks him up, than take on Dontrelle and his baggage. If Lugo is released and picked up by someone else, the Sox shed his salary in 2010.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 17, 2008 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
With Cora walking, I agree.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
Random Thought
Do you think we could make a package of Lugo + Kyle Weiland for James Skelton?
Would that be fair both ways?
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