The Yankees have evolved the Red Sox's offseason

by Randy Booth on Nov 14, 2008 7:26 PM EST in News Comment 86 comments

There used to be a time when the Yankees made a move, the Red Sox made a move. Or vica versa. It was about as obvious as an offseason cleansing of Jason Giambi's golden thong. Neither team could bat an eyelash without knowing that the other would follow suit quite promptly.

Why blame them, though? The rivals had to keep up with each other. Neither could afford to lose ground in the precious American League East. For years, it was the Yankees' territory but the Red Sox always knocked on the door. Then, after the first World Series championship by the Boston faithful, the Yankees became fell off their golden ladder and they too had to make any and every move possible.

But now -- in 2008 -- the atmosphere is different. The Yankees just traded for Nick Swisher yesterday. In response, the Boston Red Sox did ...

Nothing.

It's not because of the importance of Swisher, though. Swisher, by all means, is a pretty good baseball player. Any team that acquires him should only get better. That is contrary to someone like, say, Victor Zambrano (that one hurts, doesn't it Mets fans?).

The Red Sox did nothing and didn't have to do anything because of the current state of the Yankees. The New York Yankees didn't even win 90 games this year. They haven't done that since 2000 -- a year in which they still won the AL East. The Red Sox on the other hand actually made the playoffs and forced the ALCS into a seventh game.

The bottom line is this: the Yankees -- at their current state -- are not a threat. That is why this offseason is going to be much different than the ones we have always known.

Why should the Sox feel the need to stay move-for-move with a team that really wasn't a concern in 2008? Yeah, the Yankees made a run at times but they still aren't the team they used to be. Even if they make one very significant pickup this offseason, I don't think Theo Epstein will be off his rocker trying to make a deal.

Besides, doesn't it make more sense to compete with that team that actually beat us when it mattered? Yup, those pesky Rays. They have never been a team to spend a lot of money but that won't stop them from making a couple moves this offseason.

Let's just remember, too, that I said "at their current state." If the Yankees go out and grab CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Captain Planet, then the Red Sox's course of action might take a slight turn. But history has also shown us that Theo does a pretty good job of not overreacting. He's made some bad moves just like any general manager has ever done, but he knows not to make a move just for the sake of making a move.

So rest easy, Red Sox Nation. When the Yankees grab a player like Sabathia (which, odds are, is going to happen), we don't need to set the city on fire. Instead, let's just sit back and remember that it's a different game now and the Red Sox and Yankees might just be in two different leagues.

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Don't rest too easy.

CC, a healthy Wang, Joba, Hughes, Pettite/Mussina, etc., could be pretty fierce.

And we know they’ll hit.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 14, 2008 7:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A healthy Wang.

That made me laugh…

The Yankees do just need pitching, as you said. They have plenty hitting.

Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!

by BoSox415 on Nov 14, 2008 7:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's impossible to talk abut CMW without sounding like a dirtbag.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 14, 2008 8:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I remember when I got comment of the game, when my comment was " Chein Ming has no Wang". Good times.

Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!

by BoSox415 on Nov 14, 2008 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

why would that make you laugh?

Wang has been consistent and healthy most of his career, he did not miss time to a pitching injury, he injured his foot while running the bases.

Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics

by jbluestone on Nov 15, 2008 10:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"a healthy Wang"

Think juvenile.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 15, 2008 10:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sophomoric humor.

Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!

by BoSox415 on Nov 15, 2008 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i got it later...

thought at first it was laughing like Wang couldnt pitch.. realized it later on when i said it myself… hehe

Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics

by jbluestone on Nov 15, 2008 6:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is there a single pitcher

in that rotation who is reliable in a playoff game? Pettite? Mussina?

Am I the only one who is not afraid of CC one bit? I hope the MFY get him, the Sox shelled him in the ALCS and he did not look good against the Phillies. CC is not a big game pitcher.

Joba is the real deal though, he just needs time and he will be tough.

by SoxAcumen on Nov 14, 2008 9:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In fairness

he was spent by the time he reached the ALCS. If the MFYs give him him a couple week breather in say July, he’ll be nasty.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 15, 2008 2:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

CC

The yanks will pay about $150MM for the big guy’s arm. He’ll be phenomenal for a couple years and then hit the DL a lot (IMO). The more money they pay him, the better.

by Schulz on Nov 15, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You're probably right not to worry about the Yankees,

but its in our blood. I can’t look at Yankees’ acquisitions like I do Orioles’ or Blue Jays’ or Rays’. When they win 70 games, then maybe I’ll relax.

by BTLove on Nov 14, 2008 8:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yanks

Some things to remember about the Yanks going forward. First, the offense. In 2007 the Yanks had a great offense, in part because Arod, Posada and Jeter had crazy years.
Last year, the Yanks offense was average. You can argue injuries, but in reality a healthy Posada with an average Posada year would not make much of a difference, nor would Matsui for the full year. Now, they will be without Abreu and Giambi. Giambi, despite the average, was still very productive (30+HR, high OBP), and Abreu as well. That is alot of offense to (quietly) unload, and Swisher, Posada and a healthy Matsui in a 2009 Yankee offense still is probably around 800 runs. This is quietly the biggest thing no one is talking about.

Now the pitching. Last year, Mussina had an awesome year, and he is likely gone. Even with CC, how much better will CC be than Mussina was last year? The biggest difference will be 30in, which is a lot, but CC by himself will not improve the rotation above and beyond the rotation last year by himself. Joba will still be capped, and he is always an injury worry (see: last yearcollege+build). Mo had surgery, is old, and had one of his best years ever. Overall, the bullpen will regress.

Defensively, they flat out stink. Now put Posada there in a key defensive role and remove Molina.

With just CC, they still don’t make the playoffs next year. If they sign CC, Tex, Burnett, Lowe…I am still not sure (they would be tough for sure). This is an aged, injury-prone team with a vastly diminished offense.

by Buzzy on Nov 14, 2008 8:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Buzzy

It’s funny, I posted pretty much the same thing. I was half way through mine when you posted yours.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 14, 2008 9:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Offensively (assuming they don’t sign TEX), they need Cano and Swisher to return to form, Damon and Matsui to stay healthy and Melky to be a league average player. If these things don’t happen, its hard to see them in the playoffs, no matter what their pitching does.

Its hard for me to believe they aren’t going to make another offensive acquisition. Right now, they need Swisher at 1B everyday (maybe a few games from Posada), so Melky will have to be in CF with Nady and Damon in the corners and Matsui DHing, or some rotation. Damon isn’t really a CF anymore. I doubt they’ll go into a season depending on Melky Cabrera, but I don’t know who they can really bring in to solve the CF problem.

Dropping tons of money on FAs to build a rotation is always a bad idea, I’m not sure if its ever really worked for anyone. The Yanks don’t have much of a choice though this winter though. I’m hoping CC turns them down and they have to vastly overspend on Lowe and Burnett.

by BTLove on Nov 14, 2008 9:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Even if the MFY get Sabathia, Burnett, and DLowe, I'm not worried

Pitching wasn’t their problem last year. In fact, the MFY gave up fewer runs in 2008 and they did in their playoff years of ‘07 and ’06. Here’s how they pitched each year:

2008: 4.28 ERA .266 BAA 727 R (685 ER)
2007: 4.49 ERA .268 BAA 777 R (724 ER)
2006: 4.41 ERA .262 BAA 767 R (708 ER)

The MFY missed the playoffs because their offense wasn’t very good. Last year, they were 7th in the AL in run-scoring. Here’s what the MFY offensive production has looked like the last three seasons:

2008: 789 R .271 AVG/.342 OBP/.427 SLG
2007: 968 R .290 AVG/.366 OBP/.463 SLG
2006: 930 R .285 AVG/.363 OBP/.461 SLG

In 2008, only 4 MFY starters had an OPS over .800: A-Rod (.965), Giambi (.876), Abreu (.843), and Damon (.836). In contrast, the Sox had 6 – Youk (.958), Drew (.927), Manny/Bay (.926/.897), Ortiz (.877), and Pedroia (.869), (a crippled Mike Lowell had an OPS of .798).

The MFY will be losing two of their better offensive players in Giambi and Abreu. They’ll, likely, be replaced by Swisher and Nady. Nady’s OPS with the MFY was .794, right in-line with his .793 career OPS. Swisher’s best single-season OPS was .865 (2006), which is slightly worse than Giambi’s 2008 OPS. Cap’n Fistpump’s OPS has declined steadily the last three years. Jeter’s OPS was .771 last year (Sean Casey’s was .773). Matsui is declining, and Johnny Damon is a year older.

In order for the MFY to improve, Jeter, Cano, and Posada need huge bounce-back seasons. Or, the MFY need to sign a big bat. Mark Teixeira may be more valuable to them than CC Sabathia.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 14, 2008 9:09 PM EST reply actions 3 recs

You have no class.

If you want to be taken seriously, learn that MFY is inappropriate.

by schmosterballs92 on Nov 14, 2008 9:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm hurt

I offended an MFY fan. I’m sure you are always polite when referring to the Red Sox and their fans. Do you chide the Pinstripe Alley posters (are there any left?) when they call the Red Sox the Sux or worse?

Here’s a quote from one of your posts:

When I think of fan base.

Yankees: Bunch of guys who egos take over, but they’re the cooler people of society.

Red Sox: Stuck red necks who whine if their beloved cry babies don’t win.

Right now Papelbon and Youkillis are hugging each other crying about their loss.

Brilliant analysis—and classy!

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 14, 2008 9:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Snap.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 15, 2008 2:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hahahaha OWNED + 1,000,000,000

by matzushocka45 on Nov 15, 2008 7:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, true, good point

bc Yankee Fan is known to conduct themselves with such class.

by SoxAcumen on Nov 14, 2008 9:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you want to discuss sports on the internet

Grow thicker skin. I read plenty of SBN sites that refer to the “Sux.” Do I react to that and claim it’s inappropriate? No.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 15, 2008 12:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And, now I am sure.

TROLL. MFY is a nickname. Get over it.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 15, 2008 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rec'ed

Great points and Sean Casey had a higher OPS than Derek Jeter… It’s almost too good to be true, and I can’t believe you had the presence of mind to even check that one out. :)

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 14, 2008 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

And rec’d.

Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!

by BoSox415 on Nov 14, 2008 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eh.

I’m not convinced.

Posada’s bat will replace either Giambi or Abreu. I see Cano rebounding at least 20 points of OPS+. Jeter will bounce back a bit. Swisher is an improvement over Matsui.

And CC and Wang at 1 and 2 is much better than Moose and Pettie. And if Joba and Hughes take a healthy step forward, they could be nasty.

I will always worry about the Yanks.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 15, 2008 3:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tommy

Posada is a good hitter, no doubt. But he’ll also be 38 next year., and expects to be the starting catcher. Jeter will be 35, as will Damon and Matsui.

The point isn’t that Posada’s bat will replace Giambi’s. Prior to last year, they used to have both. Nady and Swisher won’t be as productive as Abreu and Giambi (two of the more patient MFY hitters). Cano? Who knows how productive he’ll be. A-Rod is a beast (and a poet, according to Madonna). Without Manny or Tex, next year’s MFY offense looks more like the 2008 version than that of 2006 or 2007.

As Buzzy pointed out, Mussina had a great year last year: 200.1 IP 3.37 ERA 1.22 WHIP. Sabathia, assuming he signs with the MFY, can do better—but not by that much. Sabathia is a horse , who’ll log tons of innings. But, Chamberlain has to prove that he can stay healthy as a starter. I doubt he’ll throw 200 innings next year. Wang is good. But, as a ground ball/contact pitcher, he is very reliant on his defense. The MFY defense stinks. Rivera is coming off shoulder surgery at 38-years old. I also agree with Buzy about the MFY pen. Edwar Ramirez, Brian Bruney, and Jose Veras aren’t that good.

Will the MFY contend? Probably. They were good enough to win the AL Central last year.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 15, 2008 8:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm all about regression to the mean.

Posada will likely spend much/most of his time at DH, and be back near his career 124 OPS+, which is basically where Giambi and Abreu were.

Cano is closer to his career 109 OPS+ than last year’s 86.

I see Swisher rebounding some too, probably approaching – if not quite equaling – Giambi’s production.

Jeter will have a little bump.

Arod can always hit 50 HRs, especially know that his divorce is behind him and he’s practicing all those new stretching techniques with the material girl.

So I’m seeing a net gain in OPS+, even before they address their holes in RF and CF/1B.

And take a look at their pitching last year.

Pettite and Moose were around 200 innings, Rasner at 113, Wang at 95, Joba at 100 (though roughly 30 of those were in relief), Hughes at 34.

CC and Wang at the top of the rotation easily betters last year. I assume they’ll resign either Moose or Pettite. Job can maybe make 24 very good starts. Hughes should be better. Their rotatin should be vastly improved.

And bullpen’s vary a ton from year to year. See the 2007 vs 2008 Rays.

So, ya, still not convinced.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 15, 2008 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Regarding the MFY pitching:

First off, I think Mussina will retire. But, if he doesn’t, I don’t see both Pettitte and Mussina coming back. It’ll be one or the other.

Here are the stats for the MFY starters since 2006:

2006: 4.54 ERA 1.35 WHIP 5.84 K/9 2.71 BB/9 1.06 HR/9
Top two starters:
Mussina – (197.1 IP) 3.51 ERA 1.11 WHIP 7.84 K/9
Wang – (217.1 IP) 3.64 ERA 1.30 WHIP 3.15 K/9

2007: 4.57 ERA 1.43 WHIP 5.61 K/9 3.11 BB/9 0.91 HR/9
Top two starters:
Wang – (199.1 IP) 3.70 ERA 1.29 WHIP 4.70 K/9
Pettitte – (213.1 IP) 4.09 ERA 1.43 WHIP 5.91 K/9

2008: 4.58 ERA 1.42 WHIP 6.19 K/9 2.77 BB/9 1.12 HR/9
Top two starters:
Mussina – (200.1 IP) 3.37 ERA 1.22 WHIP 6.74 K/9
Pettitte – (204 IP) 4.54 ERA 1.41 WHIP 6.97 K/9

Overall, MFY starters have been fairly consistent. Last year’s bullpen, however, was significantly better than it was in 2006 or 2007.

2006: 4.18 ERA 1.38 WHIP 1.06 HR/9
2007: 4.35 ERA 1.44 WHIP 0.97 HR/9
2008: 3.78 ERA 1.27 WHIP 0.94 HR/9

The difference in the MFY pitching in 2008 was the bullpen. I agree that pens vary form year-to-year. I believe that the MFY relievers over-performed in 2008. While adding Sabathia and (likely) subtracting Mussina is an upgrade. I agree with Buzzy that the upgrade over last year’s Mussina isn’t as great as many assume (then again, Mussina will never have another year that good if he pitches).

Sabathia and Burnett, coupled with a healthy Wang, Joba, and Pettitte is a good rotation. However, Burnett isn’t durable and Joba has to prove that he can go a full season without breaking down. Wang is dependant on his defense, which blows. And, last year’s Pettitte is pretty much what you can expect.

Even assuming that the MFY rotation is somewhat better, will that offset offensive and bullpen regressions? That’s the question.

The MFY are still a dangerous team. But I don’t think the additions of Sabathia and Burnett or Lowe make them better on paper than Boston or Tampa. I still think they need a bat.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 15, 2008 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

They had similar rate stats.

But the “front five” threw only 700 innings combined, as opposed to 820 in 2006 and 740 in 2007 (when the bats carried them). A healthier rotation of CC, Wang, Pettite or Moose, Joba and Hughes should easily be good for 800 innings. This will conserve the pen and probably make it more effective (though I find it unlikely that Mo could replicate his ERA+ or THREE HUNDRED AND SEVENTEEN).

I agree they still need a bat. I think they’ll get one. My guess is if they don’t get Tex (and they very well might) they’ll resign Giambi.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 15, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

Tommy,
you are missing the point. Posada’s 2007 year was not only an aberation with regard to age, but also with his whole career. His 2 previous years his OPS+ were below Giambi’s last year, and like Abreu’s (a bit below). Is he, after surgery, at 38, going to replace both of them? Swisher is also below Giambi, and Law says his bat has slowed dramatically (we will see). So Posada+Swisher(2009) < Abreu+Gambi(2008). As for Cano, he will be better than last year, but I don’t think he is what people thought he was. Look at his minor league #‘s, which are more in line with last year. That’s why the Yanks were not against dealing him early on (until his .344 year, which he wont do again). He will be a 290 hitter with relative low OBP for average. Basically, if the Yanks are completely healthy (only melky, cano, swisher and nady would qualify as young) they still only score 800 runs. As Drug’s says, they really need to focus on bats as much or more than pitching. And defense? What is defense?

by Buzzy on Nov 15, 2008 10:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't miss points.

: )

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 15, 2008 10:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the Yankees will waste money again

CC is not a playoff pitcher, not worried. Burnett is going to the Braves, but even if he does wear pinstripes is anyone really worried about this guy? Halladay was the stud on the Bluejays. D. Lowe? 35 year old signing a 4 year deal. Sure, if that is what you want, 1 or 2 solid years and paying someone to sit next to Mussina, and Pettite.

Plus even if MFY go out and buy CC, Burnett, and Lowe, this puts Hughes and Joba’s progression back again.

For the Yankees to be the Yankees again, they need young talent like they had in the mid 90s. Putting Joba in the pen only helps the Red Sox and Rays.

MLB has changed drastically in the past 10 years. IF you do not develop young talent, you lose. You cannot just go out and buy teams any longer. Yankees still believe its 1994-2002.

by SoxAcumen on Nov 14, 2008 9:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

Look at his splits. Burnett has historically owned us.* Check it.
Career #s
against Boston: 56.1 IP, 2.56 ERA, 53 K, 21 BB; Opposing batters .212 / .287 / .337
in Boston: 22.2 IP, 0.40 ERA, 16 K, 9 BB; Opposing batters .118 / .221 / .132

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 15, 2008 12:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Burnett in the NL would be nasty

He’d be a Fantasy League target for me were that to happen.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Nov 17, 2008 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Responding in kind to NYY or BOS moves

generally leads to bad decisions. Some examples:

2005
Yanks sign Carl Pavano, so
Sox sign Matt Clement
2007
Sox post for Dice-K, so
Yanks post for Kei Igawa

That may be one reason we’re seeing less reciprocal action.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 15, 2008 1:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement and Pavano

Wow, tough to say who’s worse…

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 15, 2008 1:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Clement's first season

Wasn’t that bad on the whole. 1.36 WHIP, 146 Ks, 191 IP, 13 W

Pavano didn’t give the MFYs that amount of innings in the entire 4 years.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Nov 15, 2008 2:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully the next one is not...

Yankess give aging catcher absurd contract, so Sox give aging catcher absurd contract.

by BTLove on Nov 15, 2008 1:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 15, 2008 8:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Here is the problem

Injuries are part of the game, but the yankees still won 89 games with all the injuries, and the redsox also won all their games with Ortiz not being himself… Of course the yanks lost Posada for most of the season, who is worth 3-4 wins more then the combo Molina/Pudge/Moeller that replaced him. Jeter and Arod both missed time early in the season which meanth Alberto Gonzalez and Betemit were playing instead of them. Cano had his worst year in his 4 year career, by a mile. Melky was an automatic out. Matsui missed a lot of time, Wang missed 4 months, Hughes and Kennedy were practically worthless (actually negative value).

One has to think that combination will not happen again, plus the Yankees are going to be adding reinforcements. It reamins to be seen whether CC will choose to sign with NY, but odds are the highest bid will come from the Bronx. They are also pursuing AJ Burnett (who has injuries) but has owned the redsox as well and was a lot better then his full season era appeared. And there still is the possibility the Yankees sign Teixeira and play Swisher in CF (where he is actually average according to Baseball Info Solutions plus/minus system).

The yankees will most likely add 2 of CC, Peavy, Burnett, Lowe, Sheets, etc.

I think its a bit presumptiuous and obnoxious to say the redsox dont have to worry about the yankees. And I would argue that since Theo took over, he never made a move purely in reaction to the Yankees, that is not how Theo worked, I think your talking more about fan Pysche, which is very different (hopefully) then GM psyche.

Theo is a very smart, and devoted GM, although remember he was against doing the trade for Josh Beckett (IIRC, he was not GM for that brief period when that happened?).

Cashman seems to have more power, and George (who completely wanted to react to redsox moves) is pretty much out of the picture at this point.

The redsox will most certianly be back in force, and those Rays don’t appear to be going anywhere, so the East will be quite a battleground, and I dont think any team can take any of those big 3 for granted.

Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics

by jbluestone on Nov 15, 2008 10:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

What I said was with just CC they Yanks still don’t make the playoffs. That is a well reasoned position. There is no way that CC makes last year’s team 6 in wins. Injuries do happen, but they happen to older teams more, and they Yanks are the oldest of the contenders. The loss of GiambiAbreau is not compensated offensively by Swisher+lack of injuries. No numbers support the idea that this is true, and it also still assumes no injuries for the Yanks next year. Further, you could make a serious argument that the Sox were more injured than the Yanks despite the 95 wins. Sox:(Beckett[DL 2x], Dice-K [missed 5 weeks], Wake[1 month], Colon[only 6 starts], Ortiz[2+months], Drew [2+months], Lowell[DL 2x, 2+months]+assorted (Buccholz…). The Yanks Lost Wang (who had a 4.1ERA when he went down), Joba for 5 or so starts, Posada, Matsui for 1/2 year, +assorted (Bruney…). Add it all up.

I always worry about the Yanks. I worry about the Jays too. My point was CC-Giambi-Abreu+Swisher will not, statistically speaking, get it done.

by Buzzy on Nov 15, 2008 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 15, 2008 12:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Injuries

Exactly, “One has to think that combination will not happen again,”, that’s exactly what people were saying during 2007 for the Yanks…and yet it happened again because when you have a team full of old player, people tend to get hurt

by Realistic on Nov 17, 2008 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Injuries

If you’re talking about a team getting hit hard by injuries last year you must be talking about the Red Sox. Last year alone the Sox had: Ortiz, Lugo, Lowell, Drew, Beckett, Schilling, Dice-K, Aardsma, Casey, and Buchholz all spend time on the DL. If all of those guys had been healthy the entire season we’re talking about a 100 win team.

by Gnick on Nov 15, 2008 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lugo's injury was the key

In 2007, a healthy Lugo = World Series/
In 2008, Lug was hurt and the team lost the ALCS.

That’s for you, NG.

:-)

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 15, 2008 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Lowrie was a better fielder and a better hitter than Lugo on the season

Although I know you’re kidding, the thing is a banged up kid having a hard time at the plate was a better player than Julio Lugo. How long’s it been since we last saw good SS playing?

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 15, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

4 years

O-Cab / Nomar. Then Cptn. Crazy, Who-lio, and Jed.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 15, 2008 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

SS

Think of this scenario. You can trade any one player on your team for any one player in baseball.

Although there would probably be a lot of love for pujols, I would be compelled to do something else given the makeup of our roster.

For me it would be Julio Lugo for Hanley Ramirez.

by Schulz on Nov 15, 2008 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...

I’d probably agree about the return, but not the traded player. I’d go with Timlin, pre-release.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 16, 2008 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd take Tek for Joe Mauer

Lugo for Hanley is good. But I’m sort of OK with a Lowrie/Lugo platoon at SS. Tek/Cash at catcher is a huge problem. Both are WAY below average at a very important position. I think swapping Tek for Mauer makes the Sox better than Lugo for Hanley, especially as the latter isn’t great defensively.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 16, 2008 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Love it.

You’re hilarious, Drugs. Rec’ed.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 15, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

look at the playing dime difference....

Dice K had like 29 starts, Beckett the same….. Wang missed the entire season after he got hurt, … and dont put aardsma and casey nor buchholz in there…

I agree injuries happen, and the biggest issue for the yanks was Depth of the 40 man roster…. one thing theo has dont an incredible job of is having players ready to step in when guys get hurt..

But the yankees lost a huge amount of playing time for key players…

And also your assuming adding CC and no one else having a better year.

If you have a healthy Posada/Wang… a performing Cano and the addition of CC, that would easily make up more then 6 wins… , i would argue in fact that the yankees could have been around 100 wins last year if they had Johan instead of Kennedy, Rasner, they probably win the division….

I have plenty of respect for the redsox organization… but I think the statement that the yankees arent even a concern is a big underestimate of just how many things went wrong last year and yet they still won 89 games.

Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics

by jbluestone on Nov 15, 2008 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

Wang missed 15 starts. Beckett+DiceK combined to miss 8 starts. Wakefield missed 3 starts. And as for Colon, well, he was supposed to step into the 5th starter roll by June, but he made only 6 starts, which necessitated Buchholz to pitch after coming of the DL. Buch was 0-9 after trying to fill that role while he was better (but not vgood) before the DL stint. I have not even mentioned Schilling, who gave 150 innings the year before (with numbers better than Wang in his 15 starts) but was shut down just before spring traning started. It is fair to say that the injuries hurt the Yanks more in pitching, but not much more. As for position players Ortiz+Lowell+Drew is close to Posada+Matsui, unless you think that Posada was going to hit like he did in 07.

The problem with Yankee fans is that they were spoiled by 1996-2000, where they remarkably suffered almost no injuries at all. The Sox and Rays and other teams were banged up last year. The injuries did not prevent the Yanks from reaching the playoffs any more than they did from preventing the Rays and Sox from winning 100+ games.

by Buzzy on Nov 15, 2008 7:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

one other thing...

I for one did not say the Yanks are not a threat. Any team that can spend like that is a threat. I simply said Sabathia does not do it alone. You have not responded at all to the elephant in the room-the loss of 2 of the Yanks most productive hitters. My point was the need to get some hitting back for next year, or they face the strong possibility of further offensive regression.

It is also silly to mention Hughes and Kennedy. They are part of the team. Hughes still will likely be a very good pitcher, but he is very young, too young to be counted on right now. Kennedy is nothing much anyway. It is amazing to me that the Yanks spent a 20something pick on a guy who most scouts said had a 3 ceiling anyway. An please, don’t mention Johan. What does that have to do with the Yankees?

by Buzzy on Nov 15, 2008 7:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If the Sox had Pedro circa 1999/2000 and Beckett of 2007, they win 115 games

:-)

Agreed about the MFY. They can spend money, therefore they are dangerous (they weren’t awful last year – they had the 4th-best record in the AL). I also agree that Sabathia alone doesn’t get it done.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 15, 2008 7:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Giambi's and Abreu's gloves were just awful

So in addition to losing their bats, they lose their inability to turn batted balls into outs.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 16, 2008 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yanks

Don’t count the Yankees out. C.C. will be in pinstripes, as will Lowe or Burnett. Either Abreu or perhaps Adam Dunn (maybe?) will be in right field. If they then sign Tex watch out. A Lineup of:
Damon, Jeter, A-Rod, Tex, Abreu/Dunn, Swisher, Nady, Posada, Cano…
with a rotation of:
CC, Wang, Burnett/Lowe, and the last spots with two of [Pettite, Moose, Joba, Hughes]
is nothing to sneeze at.

However, I think a more likely scenario is that they overspend on CC and Burnett, and then sign Abreu or Dunn like I said and call it a day.

The Sox will then sign Tex, sign Tek (2 years, 15MM), and then make trades in which we loose Lowell, Crisp, and a young P (and hopefully Lugo), and get Taylor Teagarden and a starter (Javier Vazquez?) plus a prospect.

That leaves us with:
Ellsbury, Pedroia, Tex, Ortiz, Bay, Youk, Drew, Teagarden/Tek, Lowrie…
and:
Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Vazquez, Wake, [Buccholz, Bowden, Masterson].

vs.
Damon, Jeter, A-Rod, Abreu/Dunn, Swisher, Nady, Posada, Matsui, Cano…
and:
CC, Wang, Burnett, Pettite, Mussina, [Joba, Hughes].

by Schulz on Nov 15, 2008 11:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I Think Your Missing the Boat here......

Your all assessing this situation with the Yankees as it now stands. I can see many changes upcoming before Opening Day. I’m quite sure CANO will be packaged, perhaps along with Kennedy or Hughes, I can see HUDSON in at 2nd Base. I can see TEX, if not, The Padres ADRIAN GONZAELZ moves into the Bronx. GARLAND is probably in the rotation. ABREU will hopefully be back. BRUNET may be the Key to the rotation. Like I said, lotsa changes upcoming. Thay have to happen because of the NEW Stadium. Yanks have to put on a better show for this first season. Believe Me, SWISHER solves nothing for the Yankees, other than some defense and a little speed. At his absolute best, he is a .260-hitter, with not a lot of power. That is an insignificant deal. Just a few thoughts on the NEW, and Improved Yankees. Players we don’t want include DUNN, RAMIREZ, SWISHER, CANO, and probably many more. Keep your eye on the Winter Season moves, the fun is just beginning.

by Lucky Lloyds Locker on Nov 15, 2008 1:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Best parody of a Yankee fan ever

Kudos, man.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 15, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs

Rec'd

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 15, 2008 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ditto

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 15, 2008 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So, you'd take any pitcher with brown hair?

Yes?

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 15, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yankees shouldn't be counted out.

Likely improvements:
Cano
Jeter (offensively, slightly)
Hughes
Joba (more innings)

Additions:
Swisher
FA pitcher, probably
Teixeira, maybe
Posada, maybe 1/2 season at catcher?

Additions by subtraction:
Abreu
Melky
Ponson

In the negative change column, you’ve got:
Mussina
Pettitte (although one might be back and would be league-average)
Rivera regressing a bit
Giambi (which is a wash with gaining Swisher)
Damon regressing

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 15, 2008 5:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sky

I question some of your points here. I agree with the improvements, although at Hughes’ age, it is hard to rely on him giving very much yet. As for the additions, I agree that Posada will improve the offense, but the goal for him is to catch 110 games. He is a minus defensively. Lets not talk about added players who have not been added yet. As for negatives, the Mussina one is huge. Further you are overrating the degree to which Swisher fill in Giambi. Better defense at a relatively unimportant defensive position, but weaker production. If Law is correct about the scouting on his bat speed (I am suspicious that a 27 year old has this issue, actually) then it is big difference.

Overall, I agree that a team like this IS still a threat, but as has been mentioned here before, the pitching last year was the best it has been in 3-4 years. The bullpen in particular is likely in for a real regression if you look at the #’s. It is hard to see now where the extra offense comes from, although no Abreu in right at least helps the defense. Further, Posada, Jeter, Damon, Matsui, Rivera…are old or old and injury prone. To make the playoffs next year in such a competitive division they will need more offseason signings, and very good help next year.

by Buzzy on Nov 15, 2008 8:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Clarifications

Giambi’s about -10 runs at first. Swisher should be, say, +5. That’s 15 runs Swisher can be worse than Giambi on offense and be just as valuable.

Even if Posada plays zero games, the production from catcher can’t be worse than last year. And when he plays, his bat helps a lot more than his lack of defensive skills hurts.

Yes, Mussina is a large loss. But you certainly SHOULD count potential future signings. The Yanks have dropped a HUGE amount of payroll from last year, leaving them at least $50MM to work with. At $5MM per free agent win, that’s 10 wins they can buy with money — CC, Lowe, Burnett, Tex, whatever.

Plus, the Yankees weren’t even that bad in 2008. They won 89 games. Even without improving, they’re a team that will compete again. With improvements, they’re scary.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 16, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe

Defensive metrics are least trustworthy for 1b and catcher for reasons that you completely understand. Further, Giambi’s “strength” at first is precisely what metrics don’t count. I find this analysis not so valuable. True, Posada will provide much more offense than Molina, but defensively he is a big minus. How much? Who knows. My first basic point is that with the net loss (offensively) of Abreu and Giambi, and the net gain of Swisher and Posada, there is no strong reason to expect more runs out of the Yanks than last year. Further, the net gain in a better year from Cano could easily be balanced by the likely downturn from Damon, etc.

They will improve defensively (see Abreu+Swisher) but how much? Molina is a very good catcher. Posada is a 38 year old catcher who insists on catching and who is coming off shoulder surgery. Jeter overperformed defensively last year. Nady is better than Abreu, but is not a steller fielder. They will still be putrid defensively.

As for pitching, if CC pitched as well as Mussina, that would be a success. You get Wang back, which is big in terms of innings at least. But the bullpen was really strong last year. Surprisingly so. Just signing CC and having Wang back might improve things enough, but I would not be so confident of that in a division with this amount of talent. It is not an over-the-top improvement for the reasons stated. I don’t think this staff +CC will negate an offense that could score below 800 runs in this division. Maybe it can.

Of course the Yankees are a threat. I have said that before. My point is that they really need to do more than just sign CC. As you said, they likely will. I don’t think Lowe is much more than Pettitte in the AL East. Was he ever (aside from one year)? I really do think that a Tex signing would mean more to this team than CC, and I rarely would say this about a 1bman.

by Buzzy on Nov 16, 2008 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why are defensive metrics least trustworthy for 1B?

by BTLove on Nov 16, 2008 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

they do not take into account the ability of the 1b to dig balls out of the dirt, for example, which is about the only thing Giambi is good at. I would guess they are less useful for catcher, however.

by Buzzy on Nov 16, 2008 6:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

makes sense

by BTLove on Nov 16, 2008 8:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the scooping ability is overrated

take a look at these career numbers: http://home.comcast.net/~briankaat/1bscoop.htm

Giambi’s just about average. And there’s a strong correlation between tall first basemen and preventing throwing errors, mostly because infielders can aim higher, keeping the ball out of the dirt more often.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 17, 2008 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice

I forgot about Balboni! And who is taller, Swisher or Giambi? Seriously, my only point was that metrics evaluating 1b/c are probably weaker than other positions. Overall, I think they are interesting and useful, but you really put too much stock in them. For example, the defense/offense analysis of +15 to Swisher is silly-what is your error bar on this? How do you test it? Such metrics make aggregate sense to be tested against trends (eg team ERA vs defensive run prevention) only.

by Buzzy on Nov 17, 2008 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Giambi is taller

6’3 to 6’0.

Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!

by BoSox415 on Nov 17, 2008 7:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sky

How current is that chart? There are lots of old names there.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 17, 2008 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's 1986 through 2007, career numbers

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 18, 2008 8:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My Yankees Questions:

1. With Posada only able to catch half of the games, they will have to play Matsui in the field a bunch. With his two bad knees, will he be able to handle this? Or will they try Posada at 1B?

2. Who plays CF? Damon’s days there seem over, and Melky is terrible. Without Tex, Swisher is the only 1B.

3. Are they going to make bullpen moves? (They resigned Marte and obviously still have Mo, but what else?)

4. Is their defense going to be the worst in the league? If they play some games with an OF of Matsui, Nady and Damon that would be horrendous. Not to mention jeter and cano up the middle, and Posada behind the plate.

I’m confident they will sign enough starters to have a good rotation, but without Teixera, its hard to believe their offense will be back, even with Cano rebounding. Nady, Damon, and Matsui are all mediocre at this point. Jeter is still good offensively, but I don’t think he has any more truly excellent seasons left. Swisher is a questionmark. Posada is a 37 yr old catcher. Not really much to like there.

by BTLove on Nov 15, 2008 6:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why can posada only catch half the games?

Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics

by jbluestone on Nov 15, 2008 6:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess more than half.

Sky above says the goal is 110 games, but either way they are going to be playing a lot of games with Posada DHing (or a few games at 1B). Posada is getting old, and in order to protect against injury, limiting his games at C would probably be best. if he’s not hitting well its not really an issue, but if they feel they need him in the lineup, its going to pose some problems for them.

by BTLove on Nov 15, 2008 9:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I see Matsui on the bench more often than not.

Maybe he’ll DH when Posada catches, but Posada will probably DH at least half the games. His bat is too valuable to risk a defensive injury.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 15, 2008 10:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And in other Yankee news

The Yankees sold Darrell Rasner to Japan for $1 million.

I didn’t even know you could sell a player abroad. How about Timlin to the US Army for $49.99? Lugo to the Dominican as an inspirational speaker for the low, introductory price of $29.99? But weight, there’s more; call now, and with your purchase we’ll deliver Bartolo Colon to your door, ABSOLUTELY free!*

All bids will be accepted at John and Theo’s Player Dealership. C’mon down!
*Forklift charge not included.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 16, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions 2 recs

Rec'd. Hilarious.

You are just like that one guy in the half-hour commercials, and just as you are about to turn him off, he yells, “Wait, there’s more!”

Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!

by BoSox415 on Nov 16, 2008 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ditto

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 16, 2008 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Haha...

Intentional word play: “But weight…Bartolo Colon…”

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 16, 2008 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

On another topic

Has anyone ever looked at Joba’s innings totals? He just turned 23. Last year he tossed 100 innings, and the year before something like 112 total between the majors and the minors. How many innings can he actually throw next year?? 160 even seems a stretch, no? Can he possibly throw 180?

by Buzzy on Nov 16, 2008 8:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs