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OTM Top 20 Prospects In Review: #16-20.

As long as we're prospecting...

20. Reid Engel, OF

2008 Numbers: A+, 77 G 332 PA .248/.297/.392 10 2B 2 3B 10 HR 2 SB (1 CS)

It's fair to say that Engel took a step back this season. He's seen as a player who can play LF or RF well, though his power numbers have never been up to par for the corner positions. He's 21, so he has some time to develop that skill. Engel spent two stints on the disabled list. He played at Lancaster, which despite the injuries, make his offensive numbers look even more terrible-er. Can't imagine he's going to make the list when we fill it out pre-2009, but he's not to be written off just yet. That being said, 2009 is going to be an important year, and if he does spend the beginning of 2009 at Salem (new A+ affiliate) behind David Mailman and Ryan Kalish, he's going to need to push one or the other out of some playing time to save his status as a prospect at all.

19. Kris Johnson, LHSP

2008 Numbers: AA, 27 G (27 GS) 1.49 WHIP 136 1/3 IP 108 K 5 HR 3.63 ERA

I've never been big on Kris Johnson, and his performance at Portland did nothing to change that this season. Improved neither his hit nor walk rate over 2007, but somehow his ERA dropped by almost two full runs. Could be moved to the bullpen, and possibly should. His peripheral stats thusfar in the minors give no promise to the idea that he'd be anything more than a 5th starter at the ML-level.

18. Mark Wagner, C

2008 Numbers: AA, 94 G 393 PA .219/.304/.363 19 2B 10 HR 

Wagner is still our best defensive catcher at any advanced level in the minors. His hitting left a lot to be desired this season, and we should have tempered our expectations given that his breakout offensive season came at Lancaster. Soxprospects.com says that his defensive development stagnated this season. As simple as I can put it, he's going to need to be an elite defensive catcher to make the ML at this point, because his bat doesn't project to be anything special. 

17. Dustin Richardson, LHP

2008 Numbers: A, 2 (2 GS) 2.00 WHIP 5 IP 4 K 2 HR 9.00 ERA

                            AA, 22 (22 GS) 1.49 WHIP 106 2/3 IP 114 K 17 HR 6.33 ERA

Richardson's numbers this year are underwhelming, despite the encouraging strikeout rate. He's been working out this winter as a RP, and SoxProspects projects him to be in Portland's bullpen next season. Tall. He's less likely than the others profiled thusfar to drop off the list, but he's still a 24 year old starting a "new" career as a RP in AA. 

16. Jason Place, OF

2008 Numbers: A+, 114 G 538 PA .246/.320/.432 25 2B 4 3B 19 HR 5 SB (5 CS)

Place is treading water. Would have thought his power numbers would be better in Lancaster. Still a good defensive outfielder, but at some point the tools need to become performance. Regardless of his stagnating performance at the plate, he may be moving up to AA next season. I'd love to see him put up a .250/.340/.440 at the A-level first. 

Summary:

Not off to a good start, are we? The good news is, the next 5 involve one or two players who could be moving up in the list, and we made the 2008 list before the draft, so Casey Kelly et al were not on it. The bad news, again, is that all 5 of these guys will probably not be on the list next season. All right, so chime in. Who of these 5 pissed you off the most with their not-improvement this season? Who do you still have faith in? Will Wagner work hard enough to become the next Mike Matheny? Is this whole thing with Jason Place just going to end in tears, for everyone? 

Thanks to SoxProspects.com for lots of information and to B-R for lots of stats.

 

Poll
Who has the best chance of regaining value and status next season?
Reid Engel. Safe pick. Does many things well, nothing great. Low-pressure.
3 votes
Kris Johnson. Could get an emergency start in Boston and succeed inexplicably.
9 votes
Mark Wagner. Could be the next Ausmus/Matheny. Yeah baby.
13 votes
Dustin Richardson. Daddy/momma wants a LH setup man.
16 votes
Jason Place. Has tools. Doesn't perform. I don't care.
21 votes

62 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 10 comments

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Comments

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You're being a bit rough on KJ

I think he could be a solid #5 starter, much better than David Pauley. He’s nothing special, but, come on, Dustin Richardson is awful and is ahead of him… Expectations were never crazy high.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 14, 2008 11:17 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Richardson at least has that nice K-rate.

Kris Johnson might just BE a LH David Pauley.

Johnson, age-23. AA: 136 1/3 IP. 147 H. 7.13 K/9. 3.7 BB/9. 1.9 K/BB. 1.49 WHIP
Pauley, age-23. AA/AAA: 110 IP. 114 H. 5.89 K/9. 2.86 BB/9. 2.06 K/BB. 1.35 WHIP

Johnson might have better stuff, but if you go by performance, well. He might be lucky to be where Pauley is now: 1.28 WHIP and 2.5 K/BB this past season.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Nov 14, 2008 11:31 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Johnson just has the better stuff

Pitching prospects aren’t all about numbers, it’s about the stuff and potential. Pauley’s stuff is not good, while KJ at least projects as a solid LOOGY. I’m with you that he won’t be anything great, but I think he still has a shot at becoming an okay starter…

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 14, 2008 11:53 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well.

Just on handedness, Johnson has a better chance of sticking in the Majors if he gets there. To this point, he’s been very unimpressive to me. And sure, his stuff is good, but he’s honestly been piss-poor the last two full seasons. At some point, he needs to turn what potential he has into performance.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Nov 14, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

What I meant was that he’s young, has good stuff and not all that awful numbers. His performance has been average at best, but he still has some upside. But he has to show that potential a bit more.

I think next season is his ‘make or break’ season. He’ll be too old to fail again.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 14, 2008 12:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

There should be the option:

None of the above.

Guess we’re talking SAT “choose the least wrong answer.” For this, I choose Jason Place, because his name, like most Red Sox, begins with J, and his numbers are the least bad. He also was a 1st-round draft pick, plays good D, and purportedly has the skills to succeed.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 14, 2008 11:44 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Great point.

His name fits the overall scheme, which means he’ll be given every chance to succeed. DP is going to have to become ‘Justin’ someday soon.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Nov 14, 2008 11:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I voted likewise

For all the same reasons except for “J.” I didn’t think of that. :-(

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Nov 14, 2008 2:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

So that's what my teacher meant...

Okay, that will help in about a year. Thanks, 0157H7.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 14, 2008 6:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No problem.

I teach SAT prep, so I’m full of gems like that.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 14, 2008 11:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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