Should the Sox sign Derek Lowe?

by Randy Booth on Nov 12, 2008 5:33 PM EST in News Comment 34 comments

I was really happy when Derek Lowe left the Red Sox after the 2004 season. My feelings were primarily due in part because I knew he wasn't worth the type of money he was going to demand. He ended up going to the Dodgers and having a great couple of seasons.

But now I wouldn't mind getting him back.

The Globe's Tony Massarotti says the Red Sox have talked to agent Scott Boras about Lowe:

With regard to this year's market, in particular, a major league source has confirmed that the Sox have inquired with agent Scott Boras about Lowe, interest deemed sincere enough that Boras has equipped the Sox with one of his famed marketing portfolios, or "books," on the player's value.

I say do it -- as long as the price is right. AJ Burnett and Ben Sheets have the potential to be amazing pitchers, but is the high price tag worth it if they hit the disabled list before the season even starts? Lowe is more durable than those pitchers and (should) have a lower price tag. Burnett might have a higher cieling, but is the price and injury-risk worth it?

I'm a sucker for bringing old Red Sox players back at a cheap price tag. Do we want to bring Pedro Martinez back? Heck yes. I'd be all over that. Mo Vaughn? Yeah, we can find room on our bench for him. Luis Alicea? Yes ... oh wait.

In all honesty, Lowe would be a pretty good fit in my mind if Boras doesn't try to rip the Sox off. He's a sinkerball pitcher, something the Sox are always looking for. If he's slotted in the middle-to-back of the rotation, the Sox could be all set.

Poll

Should the Red Sox sign Derek Lowe?

Yes, he's a better deal than Sheets or Burnett

105 votes

No, he's aging and Sheets and Burnett have better upsides

42 votes

It all depends on the money

96 votes

243 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 34 comments

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Comments

Was just about to make a FanPost with the MLBTR link.

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 12, 2008 5:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm gonna put in a guess about who voted the second option?

NG. Or do Sheets and Burnett have too much momentum sucking ability?

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 12, 2008 5:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm not really interested in Lowe

He’ll probably make around $15 million for about 4 years. He will be 36 next year, meaning he’ll be 39 at the end of the contract.

In 4 years in LA, Lowe averaged: 3.59 ERA 1.23 WHIP 5.96 K/9 2.27 BB/9. Those numbers are slightly better than what he did in his final three years as a starter with the Sox: 4.07 ERA 1.32 WHIP 5.08 BB/9 2.84 BB/9. Lowe’s Boston numbers imclude one great year and two bad ones (his final regular season was truly awful).

Assuming Lowe’s success in LA came from pitching in the weak NL West, one should expect his numbers to look more like his Sox stats if he comes back to the AL East. $15 million is a lot to pay for a pitcher who only figures to be marginally better than Tim Wakefield—in the regular season.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 12, 2008 6:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...

Actually, going off of ERA+:
2002 – 177
2003 – 104
2004 – 90
2005 – 114
2006 – 124
2007 – 118
2008 – 131

100 is the average ERA+, which accounts for the ballparks and league. The higher the number, the better the pitcher. He did suck in 04, but he’s been doing better lately (with a small decline in 07).

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 12, 2008 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also, his career ERA+ is 122.

Wake’s career ERA+ is 108, and has been hovering above 100 since 2002 (not including 2002, when it was 162).

For a comparison, Lester had an ERA+ of 144 this past year, 104 in 07, and 100 in his rookie year. Lowe was almost as good a pitcher last year as Lester.

PS: Beckett had an ERA+ of 115 last year, 145 in 07, and 95 in 06. (Directed at LouietheLip)

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 12, 2008 7:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ERA+

May take into account ballpark. But mostly it is an adjusted league ERA (where ballpark factors in) divided by a pitcher’s ERA. Last year the ERAs for the two leagues were similar: 4.30 for the NL and 4.36 for the AL. For example: Fenway Park’s “mult-year” pitching factor was 106, making the AL league ERA for Sox’ pitchers 4.62. 4.62 divided by 4.13 (Wake’s ERA) = his ERA+ 112.

ERA+ doesn’t really take into account the strength of competition. Also, it is based on adjusting for the park where an individual pitcher’s team plays, not where he played each game. DLowe made 34 starts this year, 17 in Dodger Stadium (a more severe pitcher’s park this year than the “mult-year” factor). Looking at all the parks that Lowe pitched in, he made 24 starts in pitcher’s parks, 9 in hitter’s parks (only 2 teams that played in them were good hitting teams), and one game in a neutral park (Milwaukee).

I’d pass on DLowe.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 12, 2008 8:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, maybe I should've researched that more...

Thanks though.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 13, 2008 7:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sheets or Burnett

I’d much rather take a risk on either Sheets or Burnett. I’d be particularly interested in Sheets considering how dominant he is when healthy.

by Gnick on Nov 12, 2008 7:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

"When healthy" being an extremely important part of that phrase.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 12, 2008 7:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Anybody else see the RotoWorld update about Schill?

Curt Schilling said Monday that he’d consider pitching for the Diamondbacks next season.
Schilling hasn’t decided whether he’ll pitch at all in 2009 and would likely only be available in the second half anyway following shoulder surgery. “If I come back and play, it will be for half of a season,” Schilling said. “It will be for a contending team. Arizona is absolutely one of those teams I would consider. I’ll have my choice and I’ll do it in a way that hopefully will ensure that I’ll be pitching for a team with a chance to get to October because I’ve always felt like I’m decent in October and I perform pretty well and I would like to get back on that stage.”

Is he signed with us, and wants a trade?

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 12, 2008 7:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nope, from Cot's:

Curt Schilling rhp
1 year/$8M (2008)

    * 1 year/$8M (2008)
          o re-signed by Boston as a free agent 11/6/07
          o $0.5M one-time assignment bonus if traded
          o performance bonuses: $0.375M each for 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190 & 200 IP
          o award bonuses: $50,000 for All Star starter; $0.1M each for All Star, LCS MVP, WS MVP; $0.5M for Cy Young ($0.4M for 2nd, $0.3M for 3rd, $1M for receiving one Cy Young vote (1st, 2nd or 3rd)
          o $2M in weight clauses ($333,333 each for maintaining weight in 6 random weigh-ins, one per month, during season)
          o perks: use of team uniform for charity events, suite for home-game starts and charity events, day care for home games, 6 season tickets in State Street Pavilion
    * 3 years/$37.5M (2004-06), plus 2007 option
          o signed extension with Boston 11/03 after agreeing to waive no-trade clause
          o 04:$12M, 05:$12.5M, 06:$13M, 07:$13M option
          o $13M 2007 option vested with 2004 World Series victory
          o bonuses: $0.1M (All Star), $2M (if Boston wins World Series)
    * 3 years/$32M (2002-04) (Arizona)
          o half of salary each season deferred
          o 02:$10M, 03:$10M, 04:$12M
          o $6M in performance bonuses
    * agent: Ed Hayes
    * ML service: 17.134

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 12, 2008 7:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

if we are spending this much $$ on a FA pitcher

Give the difference to Burnett.

by matzushocka45 on Nov 12, 2008 8:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

I’d like Lowe back, however. At the right price, of course.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Nov 12, 2008 8:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Contract length

The length of a FA pitching contract is key here. None of these three guys (Lowe, Burnett, Sheets) are young and both Burnett and Sheets will be on the DL for an extended amount of time during the length of their next contract.
Lowe would be the most consistent option. He throws about 30-32 starts every year and doesn’t injure himself. However, he had a great year in 2008 that will be rewarded with $60MM/4years somewhere.

Burnett and Sheets have similar profiles. Both have plenty of injury history, but both are dominant when healthy. Here’s a comparison of their past two seasons:
A.J.Burnett.
2007: 25 GS,10-8, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 176K
2008: 34 GS, 18-10 4.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 231K
B.Sheets.
2007: 24 GS, 12-5, .382 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 106K
2008: 31 GS, 13-9, .309 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 158K

Both missed time due to injury in 2007, but came back impressively in 2008 (contract year perhaps?). AJ’s career WHIP is 1.28 versus Ben’s 1.20. Burnett will be 32 on opening day and Sheets will be 30.

Burnett is IMO, the better pitcher and will likely command a better contract. He will probably have a larger annual salary than Sheets by about $2-3MM. More importantly, we would probably have to offer Burnett 4 years to sign him, but I bet Sheets could be had in a 3-year contract. This is huge IMO, and I think it’s the best bargain. I don’t want to be paying any three of the pitchers mentioned in this post in 2012. Sheets only needs to be healthy for the first half of every year, until our prospects are ready. For example, in 2009, Sheets could pitch into July/August, and then go on the DL. By then, I think between Buccholz and Bowden, we will have a viable starting pitcher able to take his place.

by Schulz on Nov 12, 2008 9:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

*Stats

Sheets’ ERAs should be 3.82 and 3.09

by Schulz on Nov 12, 2008 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How much is he worth?

Its hard to discuss this without talking actual numbers. Yeah, I’d love to have DLowe back, but not for 4 years $60mil. I wouldn’t pay any of them that much. Here’s what I would do:

Lowe/ Burnett: 3/ $40mil
Sheets: 2/ $20mil with incentives to go to $15 per, maybe a vesting 3rd year with certain number of starts.

I think its important not to go too many years with these guys, whether for injury or age.

by BTLove on Nov 12, 2008 10:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

For the record, I doubt these numbers would get any deal done.

by BTLove on Nov 12, 2008 10:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Contracts

Other teams will offer a better contract than those you mentioned for all three.
The conversation starts with $12.5MM/year for Sheets, $15MM/year for Burnett and Lowe and goes up from there depending on offers from other teams. Top of the rotation starters are expensive these days. Let’s not forget that Burnett just opted out of a contracted with a $12MM annual salary because he knows he’s worth more on the open market.

by Schulz on Nov 12, 2008 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah I know

I guess I was saying that I think they are all going to be overpaid, and I don’t want the Sox doing the overpaying.

Pitching free-agent deals almost always suck. Its hard to even think of any good multi-year FA pitching deals from the last few years. (I guess D. Lowe was one of the best ones)

by BTLove on Nov 13, 2008 12:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yea

At the time it sounded ridiculous. What was it, 4 years/ $38-40MM? It wasn’t so long ago that a double-digit (in millions) annual salary was reserved for the upper echelon of free agents. Now a league average starter can expect that.

by Schulz on Nov 13, 2008 12:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't mind paying then if they performed,

but most of these free agent pitchers are absolute crap by the end of their deals. DLowe is one of the few exceptions. From Mike Hampton (whose deal just ended this year), to Pavano, Clement, Zito, Pedro, Jarrod Washburn, these FA pitchers are terrible. And that list was in 30 seconds off the top of my head. All the good pitchers get locked into deals before free agency. Stay away from the FA pitchers, including CC.

by BTLove on Nov 13, 2008 1:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Sheets is always hurt. Burnett only performs in contract years—and is always hurt. DLowe is a decent pitcher, but not worth what Boras will demand. Lowe is also getting old. Why pay a premium for a pitcher at age 36 through 39?

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 13, 2008 7:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I feel confident that we will sign none of Burnett, Sheets, Lowe and Sabathia,

and that our interest is only due diligence. And, of course, driving up the price for rival teams.

"no1 has time to read your long comments, are you writing a book?"

by britsoxfan on Nov 13, 2008 8:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're right

Perhaps they’ll sign a pitcher like Brad Penny to a Bartolo Colon-type contract. I don’t expect the Sox to spend a lot on free agents this year.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 13, 2008 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like Brad Penny, but he could be laced with the “NL Factor”

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Nov 13, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If signed to an incentive contract

He’d be low risk.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 13, 2008 11:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Penny is interesting

Anyone know what happened to him? In 2007 pitched 208innings at 145 ERA+ and then just fell off the map.

by BTLove on Nov 13, 2008 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Penny

That’s a good idea.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 13, 2008 11:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

/sarcasm?

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 14, 2008 6:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

/no.

He’s not getting a big payday this year, give him a one-year low-risk, high-reward deal, a la Wade Miller (low risk) or Rotundo (decent reward).

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 14, 2008 8:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...

Okay. The short answer kinda left it open for sarcasm.

Was Penny injured this past year?

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 15, 2008 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 15, 2008 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly, which is why I hate it even more why agents point to those deals a say “If Zito, clement, etc. is worth that much, then my client is worth even more”. I’d want to be like “No they weren’t that much, history has shown that the Agents over-estimated their value, and so you client deserves LESS money, not more”

by Realistic on Nov 13, 2008 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Although I think the role of the agents in this process is way overplayed. The players can only get paid what owners/GMs are willing to pay them. It doesn’t matter what Scott Boras thinks they’re worth. These guys are all overpaid because all of the good pitchers get locked up before free agency. Low supply + high demand + stupid/desperate GM’s =big money.

by BTLove on Nov 13, 2008 12:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs