which won’t happen now unless the series goes all seven games, which happens about a third of the time in post-season history.

I have to trust Francona knows what he’s doing. I suspect the key is still Beckett’s health, which is not good according to a quote I read from Big Papi, who said Beckett was in a lot of pain when he pitched the other day. Obviously, Dice-K, with two probable starts, is the other key man for Boston.

As weird of a rotation as it is, I can see Tito’s logic in the decision. All three many pitchers will have an extra day rest, no more no less. Beckett is still clearly unhealthy, so I would not want him to start the first game because I want him to have as much rest as possible. Lester is still a very young pitcher. Not that I don’t trust him, but lets not forget that last year he only pitched 154 innings. This year, including postseason, he has pitched 224 innings. He deserves the day off.

None of the pitchers are guaranteed two starts this postseason, and we all know this is not going to be a quick series. It will be a long fought out battle, I would rather have our “ace” in the closer role of the series (game seven). At this point there is no one I would rather have on the mound then Lester but I do not want to jeopardize his future by over working him this year unless we really have to.

I like wakefield over byrd. Wakefield has had alot of success over the Rays in the past. He would be great as a long reliever but so will byrd. I think he is the key to the series if he can shut down the rays in game four.

I understand that he’s had a few bad starts there recently, but with his amazing numbers lifetime at the Trop, why has Tito opted to pencil him in for Fenway where he’s a little less superior vs. the Devil Rays? Either way he’ll probably dominate against his favorite team to pitch against.

Don’t know where the idea came about that Wake is good in domes. Look at his career numbers. Aside from facing the Rays, his numbers suck in domes. Perhaps his numbers are good at the Trop since the Rays have sucked for so long. Otherwise, he has like a 5+ ERA in domes. He is traditionally strong at home, and this year he has kicked ass at Fenway. Lets hope that continues…

That is not a careful analysis. Roughly 1/3 of his dome starts have been at the Trop, where he has a career 2.86 ERA. However, as this year has likely shown, it’s not the dome, but the crappy Rays of the past that contributed to that. Now lets look at some other Wake dome stats:
SkyDome-4.33 ERA
Kingdome 9.64 ERA
Metrodome 4.54 ERA
Astrodome (in one crappy start) 4.91 ERA

ERA is not the best metric, and all of these stats are influienced by team, but aside from the Trop, I hardly think he is a great dome pitcher.

“And also, just scientific logic would suggest that a knuckleballer would do better in a dome because the air movement is constant and there is no wind”

This is not true. A knuckleball works because of turbulent eddies that result from the passage on a non (or slowly rotating) baseball through the air. As the air streams over the seams, these eddies are set up in the wake of the ball. A slight head wind actually makes a knuckleball change course in a much more erratic fashion than no wind. I agree that a strong wind is not a good thing for a knuckleball, but no wind is not optimal.

Just found out that Tim McClelland is the ump for game 1. He is known for having a VERY SMALL strike zone. The stats posted on him bare this out. This from his Wiki page:
Zach Greinke said of McClelland’s alleged tight strike zone, “For some reason, he’s the one umpire that scares me. I have nightmares about him.”

We might be in for a very long night with the DiceK/McClelland pair tonight ;(.