Devils Advocate: Mark Teixeira
Many of us would love to see Mark Teixeira manning 1st base for us next year, as would I, but this just simply isn't realistic.
To have Teixeira play 1st base, many things would have to happen.
1) Trade Mike Lowell. Consider this:
What team would trade for a guy BEFORE Spring Training coming off of a hip surgery? A player that his splits are better in Fenway. If there is ANY chance of the Red Sox trading Mike Lowell, they would have to pick up 80%+ of his contract.
2) The Red Sox would have to beat the Angels AND the Yankees in an ultimate bidding war
The Red Sox would have to beat the Angels, who are looking in their couches for extra money that they could give to Tex. The Angels might not even resign Frankie Rodriguez because they need the money to pony up to Scott Boras and Teixeira. The Yankees are merely saying "Bring a wheelbarrow to our Vault and you can take as much as you want- 6 times a week".
3) Why would the Red Sox block Lars Anderson?
As most fans know, the Red Sox have one legitimate power prospect in Anderson. He also plays 1B, so why would the Red Sox block him? The only way I don't see Anderson in Fenway by 2010 is if he gets traded for a stud pitcher.
Reasons to think the Red Sox could sign Mark Teixeira:
1) Has everything we're looking for:
- Great Glove
- Switch hitter
- Takes his BBs
- Averages 35 HRs
- Works the Count
- Ultimate Professional
- Doesn't strike out much (93) compared to 97 BBs.
2) Scott Boras
Many Boras clients are Red Sox players: Cora, Drew, Ellsbury, Varitek and Matsuzaka. Boras loves the Red Sox ownership and with all of the obvious reasons Boras could sell Teixeira right into the middle of the order.
3) When you least expect it:
Theo Epstein had a very uneventful offseason last year, aside from the Johan Santana sweepstakes. He has declared that most likely, this will not occur. Theo has made some moves that we have not seen in the near future: JD Drew, Julio Lugo and most notably Daisuke Matsuzaka.
Conclusion: Would I love to have Teixeira in the middle of our order for years to come? Sure. Are the odds in the Red Sox favor? I don't believe so.
1 recs |
83 comments
Comments
Good piece.
We don’t know about Lowell. He might not recover fully, or even be able to start the season. And he’s still one of the best third basemen in the game, despite injury, so some team might want him. The White Sox, for example, would want to compete next year and have a hole at 3B.
I really like Tex’s defense, but he’s comparable to Jason Bay as a hitter. They both run pretty well, have good plate discipline, and 30 HR power. Tex is worth good money, but not as much as he is likely to get. Both the Angels and Yankees are candidates to throw the bank at him, but if neither does then the Red Sox might have an opening.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Oct 26, 2008 2:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It also would mean Youk goes to 3B
Youk’s a good 3B, but he’s better at 1B.
No, I’d rather see the Sox look for a catcher and a starting pitcher. Lowell can play out his contract, by which time Lars should be ready to be our starting 1B and Youk can go back to 3B then.
by RSNexile on Oct 26, 2008 12:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lars Anderson
I’m of the mind that Lars really won’t be ready in another year or two. I think Lars is a good 3-4 seasons out from being MLB-ready for a winning team like the Red Sox. That’s why I don’t object to signing Teixeira for 6 or so years. Who knows what the DH situation will be 3-4 years down the road.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Oct 27, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couldn't Tex be moved to 3B?
Maybe during Spring Training, Youk and Tex could have a competition to prove who should play 1B.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2008 1:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Tex has a grand total
of 15 games at 3B, which all occurred in 2003. He’s also played 18 in RF (03 and 04) and 14 in LF (03). Every other game has been at 1B or DH. I’m guessing there’s some reason he never moved positions, besides playing a mean 1B. Perhaps his arm is strong or accurate enough to throw across the infield. Anyway, we’ll see what happens.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Oct 26, 2008 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is, or isn't?
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Depends on your definition of is.
Just kidding. I meant to say “isn’t” on the penultimate sentence.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Oct 26, 2008 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay.
Just making sure.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tex and Youk are the two best fielding 1B in the AL.
In that order.
And Youk is a pretty good 3B, Not as good as Lowell, but the net gain of Tex’s bat would overshadow the slight drop in defense.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Oct 26, 2008 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hence the competition.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
1) there are over 10 teams looking for a third base. Whitesox, Angels, Phillies, Minnesota, Seattle…
Trading Mike Lowell will be easy.
2) Bidding war? Well what FA are the Sox going to get without a bidding war? Burnett will be coveted by the Yankees and other teams, so will CC. From now on every team with money and prospects will be in on every FA or trade to drive up the price on other teams. So I just think this is more of a sign of the times than something to worry about. I am sure the Sox will offer a deal to CC even if they really do not want him, just to add money to the Yankee payroll.
Lars Anderson is not ready to play, the Red Sox only have five more years with Papi, they want to win now.
I say the chances of the Red Sox getting Mark Teixeira is around 50 % right now. He wants to win, our team is in a better position to win in 09 than the Angels or Yankees. The Angels have a cap on what they will pay, the Sox do not. Angels are out, so its us and the Yankees who are supposedly buying everything.
Red Sox have a great chance at getting Teixeira.
by SoxAcumen on Oct 26, 2008 2:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Two years...
On Ortiz, with a club option for 2011.
Given that Anderson is not likely to be ready before then, I think Teixeira would not block Anderson, who could DH, or move to 1B if Tex’s skills decline.
Lowell, obviously, is the problem (I mean, apart from the whole boatloads-of-money thing). I’d be happy to have him as a super-sub, capable of playing 1B and 3B, keeping the regulars fresh and guarding against a catastrophic drop-off from injury. It’s extravagant, but considering that its only $ 16MM approximately locked up in salary for third base ($12.5MM for Mikey, + $ 3MM for Youk), its not stupid-MFY-extravagant. I’m not sure that Lowell would be happy with that, though.
Additionally, there is a market for a decent 3B as you mention. The teams needing a 3B also include the Texas Rangers, who have catcher prospects we would like/need (although it’ll take much more than just Mike Lowell)…
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 26, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait:
Given that Anderson is not likely to be ready before then, I think Teixeira would not block Anderson, who could DH, or move to 1B if Tex’s skills decline.
So, Tex isn’t at 1B? Or is this one of those changed comments that you forgot to check over?
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
???
Assuming that the Sox sign Tex, he would start at 1B with Youkilis at 3B, in 2011/2012 – assuming no resurgence from Ortiz – Anderson would replace either (a) David Ortiz at DH; or (b) Tex at 1B, with Tex moving to DH in place of Ortiz
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 26, 2008 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disclaimer:
This is, of course, contingent on Lars Anderson being able to hack it in MLB. There are many high-profile prospects who flame out or are never able to produce up to their potential. Don’t count your Lars before he’s hatched.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Oct 27, 2008 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay.
I thought that the quoted sentence meant that Tex would be moving to 1B if his skills decline. That’s what confused me.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 27, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Know what i don't get?
Matt Holiday rumors. He’s basically Jason Bay with the Mile High effect, and he’d cost us serious talent. I don’t get the infatuation.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Oct 26, 2008 4:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The lack of hair?
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only way the Red Sox could make room for Holliday, is if Bay was going to Colorado. I don’t see that much of a drop off from the two to include a top pitching prospect like Buchholz or Bowden.
Theres also no way in hell that the Red Sox trade Coco or Ellsbury and move JD to center with Bay shifting to RF. None Whatsoever.
If the Sox are getting a bat this offseason, it’s going to be Teixeira.
"Why not us?"
by reversecursing on Oct 26, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bay is a much better hitter than Holliday
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 26, 2008 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's debateable
A comparison of 3-year-averages of Bay vs. Holliday:
Jason Bay: 562 AB, .274 AVG, .368 OBP, .439 SLG, 29 HR, 98 RBI
Matt Holliday: 592 AB, .329 AVG, .400 OBP, .579 SLG, 32 HR, 113 RBI
I don’t see how you can argue that Bay is “much better” offensively. Unless the advantage of playing half the games in colorado has inflated Holliday’s numbers to the point of .065 AVG, .032 OBP, and .140 SLG, he is clearly better.
by Schulz on Oct 27, 2008 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More stats
Career averages
Jason Bay: .282 / .375 / .516
Matt Holliday: .319 / .386 / .552
Career Home / Away
Bay: .284 / .383 / .502; .281 / .367 / .530
Holliday: .357 / .423 / .645; .280 / .348 / .455
Holliday’s career OPS away is .803, while at home it is 1.068, while Jason Bay has basically no home-road splits (.885 home vs. .897 away). There is a chance that Holliday wouldn’t be a superb hitter away from Colorado. By contrast, we already know that Bay can hit in Boston.
I think Holliday is a great hitter, and would succeed at Fenway, but the marginal offensive difference between him and Bay isn’t that significant. THT stats say Holliday is the better defender.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Oct 27, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's more than a marginal difference between Bay and Holliday
Bay is better. Bay’s home/road splits show this clearly. Holliday’s overall numbers are inflated by playing in Coors Field, a severe hitter’s park. Away from Coors Holliday’s numbers aren’t much better than Jason Varitek’s career numbers:
Holliday away from Coors: (1303 AB) .280 AVG/.348 OBP/.455 SLG – 29.6 AB/HR
Tek overall: .263 AVG/.346 OBP/.439 SLG – 27.2 AB/HR
A few things are worth noting: Holliday’s road stats are not a small sample. Varitek’s numbers, while similar, include his last few—declining—years. One would expect a LF to be better offensively than a C. Holliday is not an elite offensive OF away from Coors Field.
Also, Scott Boras is Holliday’s agent. Jason Bay is not represented by Boras.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 27, 2008 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Counterargument.
Holliday’s road OPS, by year:
2004 – .654
2005 – .729
2006 – .819
2007 – .860
2008 – .892
There’s a positive trend here – his road numbers have improved every season in the majors. Holliday doesn’t have enough PA at Fenway for his numbers there to be relevant (14), so I won’t post them. I see a slugger entering the prime of his career, who plays good defense. Bay’s D is mediocre to bad. On balance, I value defense over hitting.
However, the odds of the Sox signing Holliday affordably are very low (represented by Boras). Bay might agree to a decent contract extension with the Sox, so I think we should aim to sign him, even if Holliday might be better.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Oct 27, 2008 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
So i now see that Holliday’s home stats were inflated more than i suspected. However, 0157H7 makes some good points too. I think that Bay and Holliday could perform similarly with the sox. Remember that Fenway also favors hitters- especially right handers… perhaps not as much as colorado, but you’ve gotta think that holliday’s numbers at fenway will be better than his road averages so far.
Nevertheless, I’ve gotta go with Bay on this one. He’s a proven commodity and a contract extension for him would be more cost-effective than picking up Holliday from the open market.
by Schulz on Oct 28, 2008 1:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Never Happen but...
this will never happen but we can dream. What if:
1)Sox trade Jacoby, Anderson and Lowell to LA for Russell Martin
2)Sign Tex
Lineup: Pedroia,Tex, Youk, Ortiz, Bay, Drew, Martin, Lowrie, Coco.
We would get much younger (Martin is 25 and an elite 2-way catcher with speed and a good arm, Tex is younger than Lowell by 5 years), and keep all our pitching prospects. Unfortunately, LA is not that dumb…
by Buzzy on Oct 26, 2008 6:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh gosh
I can’t even imagine what the bounty we would have to give up to get Martin. Ridiculous Amount.
LA would most likely want two of Masterson, Bowden, Buchholz AND Anderson.
I dread the days when we don’t have ’Tek behind the plate, our pitchers trust in his game calling too much.
"Why not us?"
by reversecursing on Oct 26, 2008 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tek
To be honest, I think Tek’s “intangibles” are overrated. He is solid defensively. He can’t throw. He frames pitches poorly. I also think his pitch calling is too predictable (e.g. what pitch is coming with Pap in the game and an 0-2 count?).
by Buzzy on Oct 26, 2008 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree somewhat...
It’s hard to place a value on a catcher’s game calling ability. It’s also hard to ignore the number of no hitters (Nomo, Lowe, Buccholz, Lester) or near- no hitters (Curt Shilling) he catches (the all-time record btw). Maybe it’s coincidence, maybe not.
I do agree about the predictability. I always impress myself with my abilities at calling the placement and type of the upcoming pitch, but this could be attributed to predictability.
by Schulz on Oct 26, 2008 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, so we know Paps is going to throw a heater on an 0-2 count … so what? Does he get hit? 9 times out of 10, no. So how is that bad?
How does he frame pitches poorly? I don’t think that’s true, either.
by Randy Booth on Oct 28, 2008 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well-
maybe poor is a bad word, this is just a subjective feeling based on comparing with other catchers. I have no real idea of how (in)effective this is with umps. As for the ptich calling, that was an example, but an annoying one. It is not just a heater, it is a “I am going to stand up, and you throw a shoulders-high heater” that I have almost never seen anyone swing at. It is a wasted pitch. Tek also had some part in the Papelbon is only a fastball pitcher idea (which didn’t work) and also the general predictability of his pitch sequence with Lester (have you ever noticed that Lester is often ahead 0-1, and almost then always behind 2-1)? To some degree it seemed to cost us against the Rays. For example, Longoria really is not a good offspeed-away hitter. he takes no stride, and seems fooled on this pitch. However, we tried to repeatedly go inside, somthing the Phillies have avoided. When he did hurt us away (game 7) it was a fastball away. Game 2 is another example. How many innings should it take to realize that Beckett has no hard stuff, and to employ the very same pitch calling that made him work in game 6? One can go on.
This is to some degree unfair. Fans of all teams can pick after the fact like this. But I don’t think I am the only Sox fan who feels he can really guess the next pitch before the sign is put down. Look-he is loved by the staff, and that means something. I am a bit sick, however, of hearing about his flawless “intangibles.”
by Buzzy on Oct 28, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that's even enough.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Oct 27, 2008 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1 problem with this scenario
Dodgers have too many OFs right now. The deal would have to include Lowrie over Ellsbury.
by SoxAcumen on Oct 27, 2008 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Add Buch and another pitching prospect maybe?
The lineup is screwy though. Should be:
Youk, DP, Ortiz, Tex, Bay, Drew, Coco, Martin, Lowrie
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 27, 2008 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Youk leading off?
I would go
Pedroia, Drew, Youk, Tex, Ortiz, Bay, Martin, Lowrie, Coco.
Bay really does deserve to be higher in the line up (3, 4, or 5) but i couldn’t fit him in anywhere.
by Schulz on Oct 28, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Assuming Papi really is on his way down?
I don’t like the Destroyah in the leadoff. Maybe Lowrie or Coco/Ells. I had the same problem with Bay.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 28, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ortiz...
is not a number three hitter. He is a prototypical clean-up man. It really doesn’t matter that much, but he should be #4 in the lineup… or #5.
Assuming we don’t get Tex, or Martin, I would have the lineup as:
Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youk, Ortiz, Bay, Drew, Lowell, Lowrie, Tek.
Varitek and Lowrie are interchangeable at the back of the order. The only time this lineup has R-R or L-L is DP-Youk. (L-R-R-L-R-L-R-S-S)
by Schulz on Oct 28, 2008 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Papi has been a #3 hitter his entire career if he's allowed to be, from what I've heard/seen/read.
He likes that spot.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 29, 2008 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes he likes it,
but it might not be ideal for the team. I don’t think the lineup order matters all that much. Basically you order it from best hitter to worst for the ideal distribution of at-bats, and then refine it from there for speed, driving in runs, etc. My point is, Papi can’t score from first on a double, and its pretty close from second on a single.
by Schulz on Oct 30, 2008 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What I see happening is
The Red Sox will go hard about trying to trade Lowell, but in the end they won’t find a suitor. Could the Red Sox try to convince Lowell to retire? I doubt it, but it wouldn’t surprise me.
I believe the Sox will get one of Burnett, Sabathia, and Lowe. Theo and co. are tired of seeing Wakefield pitch in a playoff game so signing one of those pitchers would give the Sox a very formidable pitching rotation.
With a signing of one of these 3, would the Sox be more inclined to decline Wakefield’s option or pick up for him to serve as the fifth starter?
We are scary with any one of them (Playoff Rotation):
A ~ B ~C
Beckett ~ Beckett ~ Beckett
Sabathia ~ Burnett ~Lester
Lester ~ Lester ~ Matsuzaka
Matsuzaka ~ Matsuzaka ~ Lowe
I think option B is most likely for a couple of reasons:
1) It has been reported that the Red Sox are concerned over the durability of CC for the rest of his career.
2) The Red Sox feel that Lowe has been priced out of their range with a solid second half.
3) The Red Sox have always liked Burnett, and if you remember, came down to Boston and Toronto in his first contract.
"Why not us?"
by reversecursing on Oct 26, 2008 6:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lowell
to be fair, many are overreacting to the Lowell situation. He is one year removed from 320/21/120. Even this year his numbers were good considering health (17 HRs in a bit over 400 AB). He is not that old (basically ARod’s age), and his injury is a trivial one, despite what people on this site think. I am all for moving him if we improve the team, but it is not a disaster if he stays.
by Buzzy on Oct 26, 2008 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 26, 2008 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lowell shouldn’t have been resigned for three years. I wanted the Sox to sign Rodriguez last offseason, because life without Manny and Papi was looming, and is currently here.
I agree, a healthy Lowell is a productive Lowell. Its just that a healthy Teixeira is a 10X better then a healthy Lowell.
Teixeira is everything the Red Sox are needing for the next 5-8 years- a new cleanup hitter.
"Why not us?"
by reversecursing on Oct 26, 2008 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree, but...
I think that while there are many teams out there that could use a capable 3B, most of them will try to fleece the Red Sox over legitimate health concerns. No one really knows how Mikey Lowell will rebound from hip surgery. He’ll probably be decent at worst, but I think the Red Sox will have to give him away for next to nothing.
Consider the circumstances:
1. Mike Lowell is coming off hip surgery, and is towards the end of his career
1 for other teams’ negotiating position
2. If the Red Sox sign Teixeira before trading Lowell we have a surplus at 1B/3B
1 for other teams’ negotiating position
3. If the Red Sox trade Lowell before signing Teixeira, there’s a chance that we’re starting Lowrie at 3B and Lugo at SS. Who here wants to see that?
For this thing to go down with the Sox signing Teixeira and trading Lowell it’ll have to be two bang-bang transactions. I don’t know if sufficient secrecy can be maintained for the Sox to get anything of value for Lowell.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Oct 27, 2008 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't need value.
I’d be happy if someone took his contract. Though value would be nice.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Oct 27, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only if Arod was at SS.
Lugo wouldn’t have lived.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 27, 2008 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, columns. That confused the hell out of me.
I was trying to figure out why you picked B (I assumed this meant the second row) which had CC and Burnett. And why C (third) had two Lesters, D had two Dice-Ks, and A had 3 Becks.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 27, 2008 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure-I agree Tex is significantly better and younger. It just looks like a longshot that the Sox can get him/make that work. I think 3 years made sense, Lowell actually could have gotten 4 elsewhere but wanted to stay, and had been basically healthy for the last few years. If the Sox need to stick with Lowell, lets just hope he heals up.
by Buzzy on Oct 26, 2008 7:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Completely Agree
It would be stupid to say that Lowell is better than Tex. Is it going to be harder to get Tex? Of course. There are going to be many obstacles to go through to get Tex.
"Why not us?"
by reversecursing on Oct 26, 2008 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I feel bad
… about thinking about trading Lowell. He loves it here, has played his heart out for Boston, and took fewer years on his contract to stay put. How do we reward that loyalty? By talking about replacing him with Mark Teixeria. Reeeeal nice. Unfortunately, you can’t argue against Tex being the better hitter.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Oct 27, 2008 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lowell
A lot of people are also assuming that Lowell would be willing to waive his no-trade clause. I find this unlikely, because as far as I know, he likes it here and he is a great fit. Don’t sell the guy short. I expect him to be 100% ready by opening day and return to slapping doubles off the monster as he does so well.
by Schulz on Oct 26, 2008 11:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good point.
I also think this is another obstacle the Sox would have to go through. Highly unlikely that he becomes a Red Sox. Unless Lowell becomes a super-sub which would be the VERY unlikely.
"Why not us?"
by reversecursing on Oct 26, 2008 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we trade for Tex
and Lowell is facing less playing time, a trade out of Boston might look real good. At his age, having to compete for the starting line up probably wouldn’t appeal.
Of course, if he’s healthy I wouldn’t mind having Lowell, Youk, and Tex all on the team. We can rest them and use whoever is not playing as the bat off the bench (something we lacked all year).
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Oct 26, 2008 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tex is a FA
I don’t think the Red Sox would go into the season with Mike Lowell as the backup. It would be demoralizing to him and the Red Sox wouldn’t treat that situation in that manner.
"Why not us?"
by reversecursing on Oct 27, 2008 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lowell makes too much to be a bench player
If the Sox sign Tex, they’ll have to move Lowell. I still think Tex is a lonshot, as I can’t see the Sox spending $18-20 million for a 1B. While Tex would be an upgrade for the Sox, the MFY and Orange County Angels need him.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 27, 2008 7:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's take another tack...
Is there another elite 1B or 3B coming on the market in another year or two?
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Oct 27, 2008 1:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
RESEARCH:
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2001/05/2010-free-agents.html
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 27, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In other words,
They all suck. Aubrey Huff is a DH, Carlos Delgado is too old. The only guy I like on that list is Adrian Beltre.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Oct 27, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep.
This list includes free agents from this year I think. Assumes that they won’t get signed.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 28, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
free agents
i could find a list of FA for the 2010 season, but not 2011 (when lowell’s contract expires)
by Schulz on Oct 28, 2008 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kinda hard to say that they won't retire, get injured, get traded, sign an extension, etc.
Three years is a LONG time – esp. if a certain Dem wins something next week. Johnny MAC!!!
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 28, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yea it’s a long way off, but I was just curious.
by Schulz on Oct 28, 2008 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
It’s not an ideal situation, but to have that level of talent available – particularly at a relatively young age – is unusual. Moreover, we do have a “need” for (yet) another power bat.*
It’s piggish, but that’s one of the beautiful things about a three-digit-million dollar annual payroll – you can afford the useful luxuries when they’re available (as opposed to the MFY signing the three priciest FA’s every offseason, as that apparently doesn’t really do much good). Teixeira’s a youngish elite power-and-average offensive player who also brings Gold Glove defense at his position, and replaces a role required for success in the team’s recent offensive philosophy.** Sounds good to me, even while ponying up big bucks, swallowing $ 25MM in surplus salary (Lowell), and losing our first round pick.
—
- - need in quotation marks, because (a) its a little greedy and ungrateful to suggest an entitlement to a high-average power bat; and (b) because it tends to devalue what the Sox current have in their line-up. That said, we’ve had great success recently with high OBP-guys in front of a one-two L/R howitzer punch (or L/(S) in the hypothetical Teixiera scenario). Unless someone really wants to advocate for a return of the much-beloved douchebag who shall remain nameless, it looks like Tex is it.
- - the more interesting question may be “should the team change its offensive philosophy?”
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 27, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good post.
On the question of whether the team should change its offensive philosophy, the answer is a resounding “No.” The Red Sox were second to only the Rangers in runs scored this season (in the AL), despite all the injuries and underperformance (Ortiz, Ellsbury). The team’s philosophy of valuing OBP / plate discipline, as well as power, works. We saw a slightly greater trend towards base-stealing, but that was largely because we have two very fast OFs.
The question arises – what other offensive philosophies are there? I’m not sure which ones you were thinking of when you posted. People talk about the Angels and their aggressiveness on the basepaths. I think that’s a terrible strategy. It leads to running into outs and over valuing players who can steal / bunt / Hit & Run, none of which generate as many runs as an OBP-based offense.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Oct 27, 2008 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed about the Sox' offensive philosophy
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 28, 2008 7:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can really imagine Tex in a Red Sox uniform.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4937
He is 28, a good age, but this all feels very weird because Lowell was one of the teams leaders when the season started. Who will it be if Lowell is gone? Papi, who doesn’t play the field, or Youk, who likes to throw things? I’m not saying we shouldn’t trade Lowell, I think we should.
By the time Lars is ready, Papi will be old (around 34, not over the hill but out of this prime) and Youk will still be on the middle of his prime. Lars to DH, because both Youk and Tex have great gloves.
Anyone know when MVP, ect. will be announced? I just saw on espn.com that Youk won the Hank Aaron award, but when will Pedroia claim his prize?
Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!
by BoSox415 on Oct 30, 2008 5:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why?
Why does everyone simply assume Lars will be promoted to the big league club in just a couple of years? Maybe he’ll be traded, or maybe he just won’t be able to hack it. Lars is just a kid, and while his power potential is very good, he may not pan out at all.
In my mind Lars Anderson should in no way influence the Red Sox’ decision to pursue Teixeira or not.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Nov 3, 2008 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Question
What if you don’t get Tex, and Youkilis comes back down from earth after a career year. What if you don’t get Tex and Youk bats 280 with 20 homeruns next year. Everybody in Boston is so sure Youkilis is going to duplicate this season. I’m not convinced and I hope Red Sox management are as blind as the fans are.
P.S. Varitek is useless. You can’t do worse offensively. You can’t do worse defensively, and the difference between worthless Varitek and the worthless free agents you mentioned is how much you pay them. He calls a great game my ass,…….. the Phillies called a great game when they decided to throw breaking balls to fast ball hitters. Unlike the Sox and Varitek. He calls such a great game the Rays broke a playoff record by scoring 24 runs in three games,………. with the same lousy game plan.
There are plenty of quality catchers I’d rather have than Varitek. Pierzynski, Shoppach, Posada, Navaro, Mauer, Suzuki, Napoli, Doumit, McCann, Soto, Coste, Any of the Molina’s, Russel Martin, Ianetta, Chris Snyder, Jojima, Brandon Inge,….the list goes on. Varitek looked lost at the plate all year and can’t throw anyone out, not named Ben Zobrist. I was embarassed for him.
by LouieTheLip on Oct 31, 2008 1:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I dunno.
“See ball, hit ball” sounds like a good plan to me. Beckett and Tek managed to turn it around for game 6.
Also, wasn’t Navarro the one Tek caught stealing?
And we’re okay if Youkilis takes a step back, especially if Papi takes one forward.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Oct 31, 2008 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought it was Zobrist
But I forget. Either way Tek threw out a lumbering big man on a blown hit and run call, while Navaro threw out ACTUAL runners with some speed who steal bases on the regular.
by LouieTheLip on Nov 3, 2008 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For the record
Tek threw out Navarro, and then Bartlett hit his second home run of the year.
Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!
by BoSox415 on Nov 3, 2008 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Uhh... Zobrist:

He used to play SS, I wouldn’t call him a “lumbering big man.”
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 4, 2008 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why don't you get that Youk didn't do anything amazing this year?
He’s always going to have a high OBP and average because of his eye. And he is still gaining strength.
Still no impressive stats to prove your points. And Inge isn’t supposed to be a catcher, he is a UTIL player. Oh, and he threw out Navarro.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 31, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please Understand
I’m not hating on Youkilis. I’m thinking like a GM. I need more than ONE great season to be a believer. Youkilis is a really good baseball player right now. However,…He’s not one of the elite first baseman in the league. Pujols, Berkman, Tex, Howard, Cabrera,……….These are guys who jump out at me. I look at younger players like Joey Votto who batted .296 and hit 26 HR’s in his first season,….that’s the guy I look at and see a future superstar. Prince Fielder is another guy I would take over Youkilis in a heart beat. The list goes on. Plus Youkilis wears thin on other players. He’s annoying in a Schilling like way. He’s a know it all personality with a short fuse and a lot of people don’t like his disposition. He’s not likeable. Like an Ellsbury or Lester, Lowell, Papi or even Francona. All very likeable guys. I hate the Sox but have not a bad word to say about most of them as individuals. Schilling is an ass, and Pedroia is way to cocky. Other than that these guys are likeable. I’m not sold on Youk just yet. I’m pretty sure that Pujols and Berkamn will have MONSTER numbers AGAIN next year, because that’s what they do. I’m not sold on Youkilis just yet.
by LouieTheLip on Nov 3, 2008 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols cannot be compared with any other player.
It’s not fair. It’s like comparing Kobe beef with a hamburger patty that’s been sitting in the back of your freezer since the Super Bowl. Youk is developing still, and he didn’t really have that amazing of a season. From what I’ve seen, no one has issues with Youk other than when he starts getting mad about a bad strike zone. He doesn’t strike me as a know-it-all. And I like Schill’s attitude, and the Destroyah’s too. He has to have a big ego to compensate for his lack of physical stature.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 4, 2008 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
YOUUUK
2008 stats:
538 AB, .312 / .390 / .569, 29 HR, 115 RBI, 91 R
He gets hits, draws walks, shows some power, plays gold-glove caliber defense, and always plays hard (qualitative, I know). Superstar? No. Allstar? Yes. I’m not going to put him in the top three 1B in baseball, but an OPS of about .960 is nothing to sneeze at.
by Schulz on Nov 5, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly.
He could easily put up those numbers again next year, maybe a higher OBP if he regains the mythic strike zone eye.
Top 1B:
PUJOLS (You need to be admitted to an insane asylum if you disagree)
[drop off]
Tex
Youk
Berkman (I don’t see how he could stay above Youk for now on, plus he plays in a weaker league)
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/10/22/639856/best-first-basemen-of-2008
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 5, 2008 9:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why did Youk get a -4 for defense?
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Nov 6, 2008 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Justin's numbers give a -8 for position (1B)
So he’s +4 runs fielding, but -8 because he’s being counted at first base. Nevermind that Youk played a lot at third.
Don’t pay these numbers much heed. The top first basemen have higher fielding numbers than good center fielders, even with the adjustments for position. According to Justin’s numbers, Coco Crisp is a -12.6 runs fielder. As far as I’m concerned the positional adjustments aren’t enough, and the fielding numbers are deeply flawed.
Justin’s fielding rating is based on an average of Revised Zone Rating and Zone Rating. RZR was made in part to improve on Zone Rating, so by mixing the two you get the flaws of one system. Also, Sky (and Justin) will freely admit that other metrics are much more accurate, which doesn’t stop Sky from spamming Justin’s numbers all over the place as if they were the most valuable thing in the world.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Nov 6, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just doesn't pass the smell test.
"no1 has time to read your long comments, are you writing a book?"
by britsoxfan on Nov 6, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not my numbers, just showing that there are metrics to back up my opinion.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 6, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

by 















