I’d rather get him than Lowe, in fact, I’d rather get him than anybody on the market. But I just don’t see it happening. I’d bring Wake back, however. Depth is never enough. Bowden and Buch might be ready, but they might not be just as likely.

Agree that Wake may not be the best option in the rotation and that one of the kids is really going to need to be committed to at one point or another, but I am not sold on Burnett.

Yes, he is very good at throwing a baseball. But he is not good at staying healthy. He has only thrown 200 innings three times in eight seasons. In three years in Toronto, he threw 135 innings, 165 innings, and 207 innings. The three years before that – 23, 120, 209. And now he is 31.

Too much risk.

I agree with the general plan above, with the proviso that I think Peavy would be an even better pickup than Burnett, whose injury history concerns me. Let’s remember that he’s 31. Injury-prone pitchers don’t suddenly become healthier in their 30s. They tend to retire when one last disastrous injury comes. If I were Theo, I would be trying to put together a package including Coco Crisp to get Peavy.

What I don’t get is the need to jettison Wakefield. Every year, the rotation has injuries. The purpose of Wakefield is to eat innings. He does this well. He’s cheap.

I also think you are being deceptive with your comment about his postseason pitching. “Since 2003…” In 2003, Wakefield was the best starter against the Yankees. No, he hasn’t been effective in the past three years, but the solution to that problem is to not start him in the postseason.

I don’t understand how you attribute Dice-K’s stats with runners in scoring position to “luck”. We’re talking about a reasonably high sample size, right? With 399 PAs with RISP, the BA against was ..201, and the OPS against was .643.

In 712 PAs with men on base, his OPS against was .651. In 878 PAs with nobody on base, his OPS against was .727.

To say this was “just luck” is akin to saying that the difference between a batter who hits with an OPS of .727 for an entire season (or more, really) is indistinguishable from a batter who hits with an OPS of .651. The number of plate appearances is high enough that statistical significance is undeniable.

As for Lester, there is little reason to believe he should regress. Clearly he’s been improving as a pitcher and I expect him to be stronger next year than this year. He’s still only 24, after all! And he put on a lot of weight in the past two years, which has made him a stronger person.

Beckett is Beckett, and we mostly try to hope he’ll be healthy for the postseason. I don’t think he’ll ever be an innings-eater like Sabathia. As you say, Buchholz has the stuff, so either he’ll put it together and be great or he won’t and he’ll be godawful again. I’m not seeing a middle ground.

The main disagreement I have with you (BTW I wholeheartedly agree on letting Wakefield go!!!!!!!!!) concerns Matsuzaka. I believe he is soon to be the best pitcher in baseball! All he needs to do is learn to throw a few more strategic strikes. He is smart, and he can figure this out.

He will be lights out with just a smooch more control, so that is my prediction. Again—Daisuke Matsuzaka will have the best record in baseball next year and become the defacto Sox Ace!!

One major reason to let go of Wakefield that I neglected to mention was his need for a personal backup catcher. Another is the incessant stream of HBP, passed balls and wild pitches Wake treats us to.

Another consideration is that it might make sense to move Wake to the pen, as the long-reliever. That way, if a major pitcher goes down, we can move him temporarily into the rotation. And he might be available for spot starts as well.

In any event, I expect Theo to reup Wake and leave the rotation as is.

We need to somehow acquire another pitcher. Starting the year with Wake, and Buccholz as our 4 & 5 is IMO unacceptable. I think we’ll probably drive up the price on Sabathia, but never give an aggressive bid in the auction lead by Boras.
That being said, I think Burnett is a good option, but you’re also leaving out Ben Sheets.

A comparison of their respective contract year* seasons in 2008:
A.J. Burnett: 221.1 IP, 18-10, 4.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 231 K
Ben Sheets: 198.1 IP, 13-9, 3.09 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 158K

It’s not a clear-cut choice as to who is the better pitcher, but I’d probably go with Burnett based on the NL/AL difference. However, Sheets is a more than acceptable alternative to Burnett this offseason, and I think the Sox should explore both options.

*(As we all know, A.J is gonna opt out, so 2008 was basically a contract year).

After trading D-Lee for Matt Cain straight up (Sabean is a dumbass, but not this dumbass), look what I read:

Yes, I did, but Cain isn’t going to pitch a single inning in a Cub uniform. Instead, he’s headed to the Marlins, along with Felix Pie (told ya I’d get to that!) in exchange for Ricky Nolasco.

Priceless, there’s just too much hope on stuff that will likely never ever happen. :)

But Justin Masterson’s presence also limits the need for Wake. If a starter goes down, we can move Masterson to the rotation, where he’s been pretty good. The hit to the pen wouldn’t be too serious, especially with Okie looking like himself.