Why the Red Sox Won (ALDS Game 1)
by 0157H7 on Oct 2, 2008 2:20 PM EDT
9 comments
Jason Bay crushes a Lackey fastball, via cache.boston.com
Last night was a great game for Boston. Jon Lester pitched very well, and Jason Bay picked up our offense in a huge way. But more than that, it exposed the chief flaw of the Angels: offense. The Angels' woes last night were in some ways a microcosm of their entire season.
Last year, the Angels limped into the postseason, beset by injuries, and they floundered like a gutted fish, losing in three games by a total score of 19-4. Surprisingly though, they were a better hitting team than the one that stands before us.
LAA 2007
Runs Scored: 822 (4th in AL)
Team Batting Average: .284 (4th in AL)
Team On-Base Percentage (OBP): .345 (3rd in AL)
Doubles: 324 (5th)
HR: 123 (12th)
LAA 2008
Runs Scored: 765 (10th)
Team Batting: .268 (7th)
Team OBP: .330 (11th)
Doubles: 274 (13th)
HR: 159 (9th)
Just for fun, here are the same stats for our squad.
Boston Red Sox 2008
Runs Scored: 845 (2nd in AL)
Team Batting Avg: .280 (2nd)
Team OBP: .358 (1st)
Doubles: 353 (2nd)
HR: 173 (6th)
What these stats basically tell us is that the 2008 Angels are not an offensive powerhouse, despite the additions of Mark Teixeira and Torii Hunter. They don't put many runners on base, and they don't hit for much power.
How does this tie in to last night's performance? Well, the Angels wracked up 9 hits. None of them went for extra bases. As Jason Bay will happily tell you, it's much easier to drive in runs when you can go deep.
ALDS Game 1
Red Sox: 8 hits, 13 Total bases, 3 walks, 1 hit batter.
Angels: 9 hits, 9 total bases, 1 walk, no hit batters.
The Red Sox had 12 base runners and 3 extra-base hits, and this was with John Lackey pitching well (and Scott Shields struggling). The Angels had 9 singles and a walk off of Lester, Masterson and Papelbon.
Now going by defense and pitching, the teams are pretty close. The Sox and Angels are 4th and 5th, respectively in the American League in Defensive Efficiency. This is a measure used by Baseball Prospectus for "the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs." Futhermore, the teams allow opposing batters to score at similar rates. The Red Sox allowed 4.28 runs per game (3rd in the league), and the Angels allowed 4.3 runs per game (5th).
One thing I haven't mentioned is the running game. Last night it was all about Jacoby Ellsbury, who stole two bases, while the Angels' chief running play was Vladimir Guerrero running into an out at 3rd. The two teams both swiped a lot of bags - LAA 129, BOS 120 - but the Sox had a better success rate, 77% to the Angels' 73%.
In a short series like the ALDS almost anything can happen. But if these games stay close, then Boston's superior offense could be the deciding factor.
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Still a tossup
Oddly, according to a graphic on TV during the game, the teams in the AL playoffs who won the first game in the best-of-five series are only 12-14 in winning the series. Yikes!!! That should all caution us against getting too excited too soon. (In the NL, it’s quite different with the first-game winner being dominant in winning each series.)
Still, taking that opener last night has me pumped!! If you saw all of that game last night, you know how close it was and how nerve-wracking!!! I’d give anything to win tonight and not have to sweat this whole series out, which is probably what we’ll have to do!
You mention our offense: maybe J.D. will shake the rust off and get a big hit, like he did against Cleveland last year. We could use it!
By the way, I almost puked watching Ramirez last night against the Cubs. I can’t remember him ever running full out to first base while he was with Boston. I’m sure he did on occasion; I just don’t remember seeing it. Also, with all the walks, watching Ryan Dempster reminded me of a certain Red Sox starter. Damn.
by ccthemovieman on Oct 2, 2008 3:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i remember Chone Figgins
was much better last year (he had quite a year 2007). i think this year is a bit to weak for him.
a good lead off does not hurt : )
i am happy that Ellsbury had such a good start.
good to steal the opener but now the battle just begins.
and Dice-K is up that means for me to jitter, shiver and drink a lot of alcoholic beverages and more often than i can understand a win for the Sox.
i do not know how he does it but it is always a lot of fun…well some kind of
by OilCanBoyd on Oct 2, 2008 4:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you hit it right on the head
9 hits, NO extra bases.
honestly, the trendy thing to do is to blame the hitting coach (which we all do), but i think it runs deeper than that… the Angels are satisfied with hitting singles and relying on getting the “timely hit”. Well, here’s a newsflash… sometimes, you don’t get the clutch single. Sometimes (like in the playoffs against Boston) you NEED the power.
listen, Lester pitched a really good game, but this falls more on our offense than his pitching. we had all kinds of RISP and did NOTHING with them.
Kotch would've had that.
by howiestheman on Oct 2, 2008 5:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good point
The Angels have 2 really good hitters, Vlad and Tex. Vlad didn’t have himself a great game, and Tex wasn’t all that awesome. I think that’s as much on the Sox pitching and defense than on the Angels offense. The thing is, the other 7 guys on the Angels line-up aren’t all that great (yes, I’m putting Toriiiiiiii on this one as well). So, yeah, the Angels offense is sort of built around getting singles and hoping for the clutch hit, a bit like the Twins. When our top power hitters are Papi and Youk, everyone in the line-up has extra base power (ok, maybe not Tek. But he has some wonderful bunt power).
I don’t like the blame Rev Halofan put on Howie Kendrick for the loss. Kendrick is a fine young 2B who didn’t have a good game. But why not on the others, who didn’t do much? Why not on Lackey for giving Bay a straight FB? Or Shields, for sucking against us? Kendrick did make Masterson life hard in the 8th, and he and the SS are maybe the only guys in the line-up who are not supposed to have much power.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Oct 2, 2008 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lackey shouldn't have to answer for ONE bad pitch
that’s flat-out ridiculous, and it speaks volumes of the suckage that was our offense.
if ONE bad pitch (which only put us down by ONE run) was the reason we lost the game, there’s bigger problems, like the ones we have.
Kendrick, though he doesn’t posses great power, is one fantastic hitter. If you watch him day in and day out (when he’s not on the DL), he can do absolutely amazing things with a bat in his hand. The problem for him is that he had a whole 15 ABs before this series began. That’s not enough time. period. As I’m sure you saw, I disagreed with that selection as well, but I do agree that he had a very bad game.
Tex and Vlad can NOT win this series by themselves. Our lineup, when functioning properly, is a very potent lineup. It may not look like it on paper, but when we are clicking on all cylinders, we scare the living crap out of whomever we may be playing (I think you may have noticed that during the regular season).
It’ll be interesting to see how the series goes from here… I think Scioscia probably lit a fire under the guys after that loss, and I think they’ll come out and win game 2. I also think that this will probably go to 5 games, and that it’ll be a toss-up.
Kotch would've had that.
by howiestheman on Oct 3, 2008 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep, the series can go either way
How are you guys feeling about Santana tomorrow? Because I’m not all that confident in Dice-K. Daisuke is a really hard guy to hit, and the Angels line-up is well-known for hitting and not taking walks. So it should be a good fit for us, but I’m just not sure, he can implode any inning and gets into too much trouble, like loading the bases and shit, giving the other team opportunities the Angels don’t miss all that much. And are you guys as worried about Santana as I’m about Dice-K?
I like Kendrick, I think he’ll be a special player. He had a bad game, okay, but I don’t think he should take the blame. And while Lackey pitched a very nice game, the pitch Bay hit was not good, and he left some in the middle of the zone more times. He’s a very good pitcher, but he sure seems to love leaving FB where the hitter can get.
Looking forward for a great game against you guys tomorrow.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Oct 3, 2008 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
honestly
i’m slightly nervous, but mostly confident in Santana, and i think that’s probably the generally feeling amongst Angels fans. he’s had a very solid year, and he’s a completely different pitcher than last year.
that being said, i think the Angels need to take the approach they had in Wednesday’s game and do the exact same thing tomorrow. on Wednesday, they took a TON of pitches (when they really shouldn’t have). that’s what will inevitably kill Dice-K. my fear is that they’ll abandon that completely and just start hacking away, which will work against them.
i really think they’ll win tomorrow, but it’s going to be close. luckily for us, Gary “overpaid douche bag” Matthews won’t be in right field (replaced by either Kendry Morales or Juan Rivera), but we will have Jeff “OPS+ 55” Mathis behind the plate (basically, our Tek).
I’m looking forward to a close, fun game tomorrow.
Kotch would've had that.
by howiestheman on Oct 3, 2008 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great post.... again
I would’ve voted for the first two if I could. I didn’t realize how terrible average the Angels offense is (relatively speaking; I always thought they were in the top 5 in most categories. I now feel better about our chances.
by BoSox415 on Oct 2, 2008 8:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
However
The Angels’ numbers are across the entire season. They did perform better over the 2nd half with their current lineup.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Oct 3, 2008 2:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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