I don’t know about you, but I love this series. There’s so many stories going on in this series and the winner will bring some of these stories with them into the World Series. This year’s ALCS is going to have a lot of excitement and will go likely go the distance. Part of the reason I like this is becuase the Rays have a number of former Hudson Valley Renegades (Short-A Rays affiliate in my town), but I promise you, while my rooting interest is in the Rays, I will be objective here.

Like the NLCS, this is a fairly even series.  Each team has a strong pitching staff with many different components. Each team has a consistent ace. Tampa Bay has Jaime Shields, a consistent pitcher who knows how to win and won’t back down. Boston has Jon Lester. He has been as of late and did an excellent job in shutting down the Angels. When it comes to opening or closing a series, he is clutch. He won’t be opening this series, but if he’s pitching a closeout game it’s a virtual lock.

Each team has a solid bullpen. The Rays will go after you with Bradford, followed by Dan Wheeler. Boston will bring out Okajima, Masterson with Papelbon to close it. Who even leads after 7 innings will liekly win the game.  I will give the Red Sox the advantage here.

Each staff has it’s question marks. Andy Sonnanstine pitched well in Game 2 against the White Sox, but he did not have a September to remember. Matt Garza has had problem in the 4th inning in a number of his last starts. He’s also had issues recovering from those innings. The other question is whether or not the Rays arms will hold up. Most of this staff is on the verge of reaching career highs in innings pitched, one has to hope that the arms don’t run out of gas. For the Red Sox, Josh Beckett, Diasuke Matsusaka and Tim Wakefield are the big question marks. Which Josh Beckett will show, the dominant pitcher in the 2003 & 2007 World Series or the injured on as of late. If the usual Beckett shows up, the Rays can go home, but we have yet to see that. You never know what you’re going to get with Tim Wakefield and I wonder about how long Mastusaka can last and how many of walks will turn into runs.

No matter how you shake it, there is no clear advantage here. Too many variables.

The lineups will be interesting too. The Red Sox have one of the most complete lineups in the league. Can Pedroia get of out his slump. His less than stellar ALDS leave us to wonder when he’ll get out of the slump. If it’s too late, they could be watching the Fall Classic on TV. Can Jason Bay keep Red Sox Nation saying “Manny Who?” How will the absence of Mike Lowell affect the team? Can they get to the young Rays staff, particularly Shields and Sonnanstine? The Rays lineup is young an exciting. Evan Longoria is legit and will have a number of clutch hits in this series. If the Rays are to win this series, Longoria will have to produce like an MVP and he can. Expect him and Carlos Pena to smack Wakefield’s knuckleball over the fences. The Rays have excellent speed in Jason Bartlett and BJ Upton, who had a wonderful ALDS. Upton is showing similarities to Jose Reyes with his excellent speed and improving power. If he can continue this into the ALCS, Watch Out!!!!

While the lineups are fairly even, I have to give a slight advantage to the Red Sox. There are fewer breaks and question marks in the lineup. Plus, think the Red Sox have better hitters overall

The defense isn’t even close. The main reason the Rays are here is their defense. The outfield is wicked quick and the infield is one of the best I’ve seen in a while. Longoria & Bartlett should steal former teammate Paul Hoover’s jersey because they are just vacuums. Iwamura isn’t too shabby either.  The Red Sox defense is filled with question marks. Who can fill the void for Mike Lowell? Moving Kevin Youkilis works, but you’re sacrificing the best defensive AL first baseman by doing so. Can Mark Kotsay make Red Sox nation forget about Lowell’s defense? Will Kotsay play first or will he have to replace a still in jured JD Drew. The defense is slower, older, more injured and this could hurt the Red Sox at a critical time. I give a huge advantage to the Rays here.

What about the intangibles? The home field advantage is even for both teams, winning most of their games in this series at home. I’m not sure if this will hold true in the playoffs. They played 9 games at each park and should be used to the nuances of each park. Home field advantage in the playoffs isn’t a huge factor unless it’s a Game 7. Experience is overrated. While the Rays have only played 4 playoff games in their history and the Red Sox have been in the playoffs 4 of the last 6 years, I too think that is overrated. The only way experience factors in this series is if the Rays are facing elimination.

With all that being said. This will be a great series to watch. A lot of stories, a lot of evenness and for me a lot of former Hudson Valley Renegades who I’ve been able to meet over the years. I will be rooting for the Rays in this series because of that connection, but I think there are more question marks for the Rays, particularly in Sonnanstine and Garza and Boston’s lineup is just better than the Rays.

My pick Red Sox in 6 (God, I hope I’m wrong, no offense Red Sox nation)