My Opinions on Over-Discussed Topics

by Liza on Jan 27, 2008 5:50 PM EST Comment 27 comments

A quick note: it took me a long, long time (um... until about five minutes ago) to figure out what these "diary" things were. So forgive me if this is weird, I haven't done one before.

Santana
Long story short: I used to think yes, now I'm leaning more towards no.

Short story short: My first thoughts upon hearing the rumors about a Boston-Minnesota trade were, "Not Jacoby!" Yes, Santana is one of the best (if not the best) lefty starting pitcher right now. I get it. But Jacoby is one of the best (if not the best) center field prospects right now. Our starting pitching is in better than good shape and our starting center fielder for the past two years seems to be in a permanent hitting slump. I'd say that, in terms of what we need, a center fielder is worth more than another starter. I guess I would be okay with the Lester trade, but I really want to see Masterson break into the majors soon. I like him. And Lowrie.

Bottom line: So long as he's not in the Bronx or here, I'm happy. If he says in Minnesota or goes to the Mets, that's fine with me.

Roger Clemens
Long story short: Ugh.

Long story long: See, I'm only 14, so when Clemens left the Sox, I was 3 years old. I didn't really even pay attention to baseball until 2003 anyway, so to me, Clemens was just the retire-and-unretire guy he is now.

Bottom line: I think he did steroids and needs to stop being such an attention magnet.

2008 Projections
AL West: Angels (maybe Mariners+Bedard)
AL Central: Tigers
AL East: Red Sox
AL Wild Card: Yankees

NL West: DBacks
NL Central: Cardinals (unless Glaus turns out to be a bust, in which case the Cubs again?)
NL East: Mets+Santana or Phillies (if Santana isn't with the Mets)
NL Wild Card: Mets? Phillies? Rockies? It remains to be seen...

So yeah. Go ahead and comment on my opinions... or don't... :)

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Re: My Opinions on Over-Discussed Topics

(I thought I already commented here, but it didn't show up?)

Anyways, agreed on just about everything, except I'll take the Indians over the Yankees for the WC, and maybe even over the Tigers. Carmona is filthy, and this might be the year he bests Sabathia, coupled with a potentially resurgent Hafner leading the offense. Solid team, Borowski excepted.

I think the Yanks will have some growing pains this year. Moose is toast, Posada can't possibly hit .330 again (right?), Joba, Hughes and Kennedy won't be throwing like HOF'rs quite yet, and the pre-Mo bullpen is pretty bare. I know, never bet against the Yanks, but this is their rebuilding year. Then next year, they'll sign Sabathia, Texeira and every bullpen arm and be right back neck and neck with us.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Jan 27, 2008 8:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: My Opinions on Over-Discussed Topics

The Indians had a good team this year, but I haven't heard much from them this offseason. Carmona is good, no question about it, but as we saw in the ALCS, seemed to melt under pressure. If (when) the divison race between Cleveland and Detroit develops, I wonder if he'll be able to hold up.

And on the Yankees subject, I do think they will be good this year--the young starters won't be wonderful, obviously, but I won't hide that Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes kind of scare me. Robinson Cano is really good, though, and they have a couple other young infielders who look like they could play regularly in the majors this year (Duncan, Betemit, etc).

by Liza on Jan 27, 2008 9:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: My Opinions on Over-Discussed Topics

I attribute Carmona and Sabathia's playoff performance more to fatigue than to nerves. Especially Carmona, who jumped from 101 innings in 2006 to 230 in 07.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Jan 27, 2008 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh

And that's 101 cumulative minor league and major league innings in 2006.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Jan 27, 2008 9:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Oh

I guess, but both did pretty well in the ALDS and their first ALCS starts--it was only when the Sox were re-surging that they did badly.

...Come to think of it, that the Sox were doing well might be why they did badly.

by Liza on Jan 27, 2008 10:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Detroit's pitching blows

Aside from Verlander, they don't really have a frontline starter. Rogers looks done. Robertson isn't much. Bonderman had an ERA over 5.00 last year. Ditto for Dontrelle--in the NL! Their pen is pretty bad too. The Tigers are going to have to score 6-7 runs a game in order to win. Their offense might be able to do that. But my money is on Cleveland for the division, with the Tigers and MFY battling for the WC (maybe the M's too, if they get Bedard).

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Jan 29, 2008 6:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Detroit's pitching blows

The Tigers have already put so much mileage on Bonderman's arm. 900+ innings, and he's just 25. Beckett is 2 years older and has thrown only about 80 or so more innings.

That being said, if he can finally refine a third pitch in ST, I have some hope that Bonderman can become (again?) the #2 that Detroit needs.

Of course, their bullpen is a tremendous mess. The simple fact that Jason Grilli hasn't been outright released is evidence enough that that pen is going to be major trouble.

For their long-term future, it might be best if they're out of contention by July. Otherwise, their last true blue-chip prospect (Rick Porcello) will probably be off to somebody (Twins/Nathan?) for bullpen help.

by Allen Chace on Jan 29, 2008 6:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Yanks

Betemit and Duncan are nice depth, but I can't see either being the real 1st baseman. I think I heard Damon has been working out at first - could that be right?

And sure, Hughes and Joba are scary, and for their 150 innings this year they'll be pretty good, and maybe eventually they'll be great. But this year, I'd put the Yanks rotation 3rd in the East, behind us and Halladay, McGowan, Burnett, Marcum and Litsch up in Toronto.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Jan 27, 2008 10:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: The Yanks

Not much can be said for Betemit offensively, but his defense is spectacular. He's made some really great plays. Duncan doesn't have much other than power offensively, and his defense is okay, but I think both could play relatively well in the majors within two years. And yes, I think The Demon is learning first, which would probably mean Melky Cabrera starting in center and Hideki Matsui in left.

Halladay is a personal favorite of mine, and I think the Jays are going to have a better year than last, but I don't think they'll be in major contention for the division or anything.

by Liza on Jan 27, 2008 10:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: My Opinions on Over-Discussed Topics

Have to think the Cubs over the Cards in the Central. And the Brewers over the Cards. The St. Louis pitching staff is (nonexistant/horrendous). Adam Wainwright, Jason Isringhausen. Beyond that, I wouldn't put $$ on any of the Cardinals pitchers to be successful. They might be, I guess.

Also, the current MI combo listed on their depth chart (Cesar Izturis/Adam Kennedy) is completely punchless, to put it mildly.

That being said, agreed with most everything else and your other projections.

by Allen Chace on Jan 27, 2008 9:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: My Opinions on Over-Discussed Topics

To be honest, I don't know that much about the NL in general, but I do have a bit of a soft spot for St. Louis. I like the Cubs, but I don't think they quite have the team they need yet, and I'm not sure about the Brewers.

I do like the Cards' chances this year, even after their sub-.500 year in '07. With Glaus added, as well as their face-lifted outfield, I think they'll do a lot better this season.

Plus, they have Piniero and Clement, both of whom I liked. :P

by Liza on Jan 27, 2008 10:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: My Opinions on Over-Discussed Topics

Hey, I like the Cards too. I just think even given some of the positives (Glaus, etc.), they're still going to be overmatched by the Cubs and Brewers.

by Allen Chace on Jan 28, 2008 1:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: My Opinions on Over-Discussed Topics

With the Rays on the way up, we'll probably see an even tougher AL East (I have no sense for what the Jays will do in 08, though the rotation looks tough). Given that, it lessens the odds of the Wild Card coming from our division.

AL East: Boston
AL Central: Detroit
AL West: LAAA (not a strong division)
Wildcard: Cleveland

NL East: Phillies (unless there's a Santana trade, in which case, Mets)
NL Central: Cubs (worst among equals in another weak division)
NL West: Diamondbacks (a bit smoke and mirrors last year - and the Rockies even more so - but as things stand, the others haven't done enough to contend)
Wildcard: Mets

ALCS: Red Sox
NLCS: Phillies
WS: Red Sox

Though I'll also have a small financial interest in Detroit, and Santana to the Mets would also make them very appealing to the punter.

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Jan 28, 2008 3:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: My Opinions on Over-Discussed Topics

NL West: Diamondbacks (a bit smoke and mirrors last year...)

Webb-Haren at one and two is huge. Maybe the best punch in the NL (Peavy is very good, but there's a serious park factor when looking at his stats)

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Jan 28, 2008 9:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: My Opinions on Over-Discussed Topics

I'd forgotten the Haren trade: I definitely stand by my prediction for that division now. Will be interesting to see how Justin Upton hits too.

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Jan 28, 2008 9:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Justn Upton

Ya, that guy is fun. His brother too.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Jan 28, 2008 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: My Opinions on Over-Discussed Topics

I wouldn't bet against the Brewers this year. They should at least take the central. It is the weakest division in baseball, and they will be coming into this season with a healthy group of guys. Barring another injury riddled season for Ben Sheets, a top 10 CY Young candidate season is not out of reach. And Yovani Gallardo is in the rotation for good now offering some youth, and pending a bounce back season for Chris Capuano, I think they'll put together an even better run than last season. They have one of the nastiest front through middle lineups in Baseball built around Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun (who you can count on will be playing his first full season, and they wont have his defensive skills plaguing their infield) and with Rickie Weeks reporting a healthy wrist, they have a very capable leadoff guy. With only 2 additions to their lineup, Mike Cameron and Jason Kendall, a majority of the team is already blending well. All of this is backed up by an extremely knowledgeable skipper in Ned Yost. There is only 1 maybe, and it's a big one. Closer, Eric Gagne. Who knows there? But they have a sometimes dependable setup/ex closer in Derrik Turnbow. I say they have a great chance of taking the Central from the Cubs. Because there's next to no chance anyone else will be making a move.

by 2004LoveAffair on Jan 29, 2008 5:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: My Opinions on Over-Discussed Topics

Good post.

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Jan 29, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: My Opinions on Over-Discussed Topics

Agreed with BSF, excellent points.

Gallardo is the X-factor, even given how good he was last season. He's got ace potential (I was lucky enough to watch him while he was in Nashville, and he's got the goods), and if he is able to pitch a whole season, that probably does put them clearly above the Cubs, especially given the tremendous potential (and already proven players) of that offense.

by Allen Chace on Jan 29, 2008 5:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: My Opinions on Over-Discussed Topics

Im mostly with britsoxfan as for the picks, just change around the Indians and Tigers. Cleveland has better pitching and I believe that will win the central.

Also, I like a team from the NL West to win the Wildcard again. Maybe the Dodgers with all those arms being healthy.

Mets are not going to win anything until they get someone who can give them 7 innings without giving up 5 runs.

As for Santana, if we can get him for just one player, either Ellsbury or Lester, + prospects, man, you have to make that deal.

That move will lock the Sox into the ALCS for the next 5 years and most likely win a couple more World Series. He is just that good.

Clemens bores me, I am just waiting for him to stand up and take the oath in front of Congress and see if his story changes with the very real threat of prison for perjury.

by SoxAcumen on Jan 28, 2008 5:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Odds on some likely contenders

Boston Red Sox 4/1
New York Yankees 6/1
Detroit Tigers 7/1
Los Angeles Angels 10/1
New York Mets 12/1
Cleveland Indians 14/1
Chicago Cubs 14/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 14/1
Philadelphia Phillies 16/1

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Jan 28, 2008 5:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Odds on some likely contenders

It's difficult to believe that the Indians and Phillies shouldn't be priced shorter than the Cubs - and indeed the Mets before a Santana trade. And I don't like the Dodgers at all this year.

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Jan 28, 2008 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Odds on some likely contenders

I would put some money on the Cubs bc of the 100 year anniversary of their being losers, maybe lightning will strike.

If J. Schmitt is healthy, that rotation is very formidable, plus, the Dodgers still have the prospects to deal for another bat.

I like the Dodgers, maybe I am crazy, but I'm picking the Dodgers for the NL WC.

by SoxAcumen on Jan 28, 2008 7:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wood

What happened to Kerry Wood? I think he slipped in a hot tub or something like that last year, but whats the deal this year?

You know, a lot of people say they didn't want to die until the Red Sox won the World Series. Well, there could be a lot of busy ambulances tomorrow.

by BoSox415 on Jan 28, 2008 7:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Wood

This year, he's fitted one of these:

Fingers crossed.

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Jan 29, 2008 3:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Wood

I love that it has a harness. Strap in, boy.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jan 29, 2008 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Wood

Aren't the Cubs looking at him to possibly fill their closer role? I know they are planning on have Ryan Dempster move into the rotation, which seems to be an interesting decision, to say the least, especially considering he has been filling the closing role for the passed 3 seasons. And he hasn't done all that bad either. Accumulating 85 saves in 99 opportunities. Nothing to write home about, but also not bad.

by 2004LoveAffair on Jan 30, 2008 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs