Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

by Schulz on Jan 27, 2008 12:18 PM EST Comment 33 comments

The Twins just extended Michael Cuddyer for 3 years, $23 mil, and Justin Morneau for 6 years, $80 mil. Does this mean that they are trying to build a contender for the next few years, and will hold on to Johan? This is just speculation on my part, but there doesn't seem to be any talks with the Yankees or Red Sox, and while the Mets were supposedly in the lead for acquiring Santana, they're about to make a trade for Livan Hernandez.

Thoughts?

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Correction

Hernandez is a free agent.

by Schulz on Jan 25, 2008 8:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put?

Maybe they've extended Morneau and Cuddyer so the Minnesotans don't totally revolt when they trade Johann for Ryan Church and a handful of minor leaguers.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Jan 25, 2008 11:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put?

The Twins have a lot of young starting pitching in the pipeline, in addition to what they'd get from a Santana trade. I think locking up Morneau and Cuddyer is in keeping with their budget-conscious mindset, as both players could cost a lot in arbitration. Pohlad would have to add a significant amount to payroll for Santana. The team has shown it can compete on a low budget - why would ownership change that (and decrease their own profits)?

by 0157H7 on Jan 25, 2008 11:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bedard on the Move?

Seems maybe by next week to the Mariners?
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/27/orioles-rumors-brian-roberts-erik-bedard/

by ET90210 on Jan 27, 2008 12:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good riddance

That guy's been a Sox killer for the last couple years.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Jan 27, 2008 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Bedard on the Move?

I would not sad to see Bedard out of the divison, but he could make the Mariners into a real contender for the AL West.

by Liza on Jan 27, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Bedard on the Move?

Adam Jones is flying to Baltimore for a physical according to Rotoworld. Seems like a deal is imminent. I'm looking forward to a Bedard-less AL East in '08.

by soxaholic on Jan 27, 2008 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Buster Olney, today

"Heard from a couple of sources that Boston has taken Jon Lester off the table, for good, in the Santana trade discussions."

Presumably, Ellsbury remains on the table. I'd think trading for Santana would more than compensate for losing Lester, but trading Tacoboy leaves us with Coco. I don't exactly get the rationale. Unless the Twins really want a SP, and our Ellsbury offer is a red herring.

Though our interest in Wilkerson makes much more sense if we were to trade Ellsbury, assuming Wilkerson can still play CF.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Jan 27, 2008 2:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Buster Olney, today

Now that Lester is off, they should just stop the trade.

You know, a lot of people say they didn't want to die until the Red Sox won the World Series. Well, there could be a lot of busy ambulances tomorrow.

by BoSox415 on Jan 27, 2008 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

As a Twins fan I'm torn now on what the Twins should do. I like the idea of having Santana but would love to see the Twins make the Ellsbury trade with the Sox.

Mainly because if he can even come close to what he showed last year the Twins would have the one piece of the puzzle their offense is truly missing, a great leadoff guy who moves well on the bases.

This and the fact that I think Lowrie is very underrated especially after seeing John Sickels review on him. He looks like he could be a great addition to the trade.

I'm very much in favor of the Twins getting a deal centered around a couple position players as opposed to pitchers. The Twins farm system lacks position players throughout and has a glut of major league ready starting pitchers.

Anyhow that's my two cents, I'm still very much in favor of the Twins going after Jacoby. At the very least I hope if the Twins somehow find a way to resign Santana that we make a trade for Coco. He's better than anything the Twins have and hopefully a trip back to the midwest will help him remember why he was so good with the Indians.

by halfchest on Jan 27, 2008 5:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

Via Roto: http://www.twincities.com/dailydose/ci_8088611 - St. Paul Pioneer Press is saying that a Santana deal is likely "within 10 days." It also mentions Lester being taken off the table (which, btw, I also do not get).

Sigh...at least a couple more weeks of Johan watching.

Schulz, I kind of do wish you were right though. I'd be thrilled to keep Lester, Ellsbury and the rest of our prospects, as long as Santana stays away from the MFY.

by B VT on Jan 27, 2008 5:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

I read an article (Minnesota paper, I think) that put forth this possibility lately. They even advocated keeping Santana, arguing that the Twins weren't getting enough in the deal.

I think Minnesota will deal Santana for two reasons.

(1) I think the author of the article was being silly about the "undervalued" argument. Santana is worth a lot, but the packages offered have been strong as well. If he goes to free agency and they can't sign him, they get some compensatory picks...how's that for undervalued.

(2) I don't think Minnesota is that stupid (or maybe they are). I don't think it's reasonable for the Twins to sign him for the money he'll want. It's a small market team and they'll hand-cuff themselves with the six year liability on that contract. So, that means they need to deal him. They could wait and try to trade him in the season...say, if a team that is looking to compete for post-season play and they need a starter...but, that's a risky proposition because Santana has a no-trade clause. Lastly, his value will continue to go down as time goes along because he's only under control for 1 season at this point.

by Fenway Fan on Jan 27, 2008 7:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

If I'm right (in prior post) about the fact that Minnesota will deal Satana, the more relevant question is where he'll go -- I know this is boring because that's been the story for the last couple of months.

But, I've got no insight on where he'll go. I just hope Boston gets him because it will make for an unbelievable rotation.

Here's a question -- if Boston gets Sanata, when's the last time the MLB has seen such a dominant rotation?

by Fenway Fan on Jan 27, 2008 7:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

Anyone else kinda wish the deal doesn't happen now? Its been long enough. We seem to have a solid roster right now, and our rotation is already looking good; two proven aces, Wake, Dice-K, and Lester and Buchholz competing for the 5th slot.

Am I in the minority in this thinking?

What would Dogbert do?

by panzermensch on Jan 28, 2008 6:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

I just want SOMETHING to happen. It's hard to sustain interest in a single trade scenario for three months.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Jan 28, 2008 9:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

I have been with you from day one. I prefer the Red Sox pass on this deal with the possible exception of worry that the Yankees will.

We need to keep Ellsbury and keeping Lester and Bukholz makes sense too. If we trade, we should be looking for a young catcher to spot in for Varitek this year and gradually assume the full time duties, as Varitek ages. Varitek is 36 this year and the catching position is a tough one on the body.

Am I the only one who feels that our outfield needs improvement. We has Manny, who is aging and in the last year of his contract. It sounds like he is working out hard to get ready for this season, let us hope so. Ellsbury may be great, but we need to see him over a season to understand how good he will be. Coco is a great defensive outfielder, but his offense is weak and finally we are told RF will be all set, but I thought last year it was a weak position for us from the batters box side. One really solid outfielder for Coco and a young pitcher would be great insurance. Let Santana go and fill other needs.

by Longsuffering on Jan 28, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

With all due respect to our awesome prospects, when you have the opportunity to land the best pitcher in baseball you do it.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jan 29, 2008 9:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

IF the Twins do not move Santana, the GM should be fired IMMEDIATELY on the spot.

Santana will not be pitching in Minnesota in 09, sorry but the money will be huge and as a FA there will be several more players in the game trying to pay Santana who did not want to trade any of their prospects.

The Twins will end up getting 2 draft picks and a nice little pat on the ass from the rest of the AL for letting him stay out of the AL playoffs another year in 08 and for letting the Yanks and Sox keep their top prospects and still sign Santana for just the money.

If you as a GM have a chance to get 2 draft picks, Phil Hughs or Jacoby Ellsbury and you stick with the picks you should be fired, right there, no questions, see ya latter.

Plus, this idiot GM has held up the market for every other team looking for pitching this year, bc they overvalued a pitcher who is looking for an A-Rod type deal.

Fire this guy.

by SoxAcumen on Jan 28, 2008 5:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

Amen, SA

by Schulz on Jan 29, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

There is zero chance of the Twins re-signing Santana. Its easy to sign guys who arent eligible for FA like the two you mentioned.

There is also zero chance C-Town re-signs CC.

These guys are about to get PAID.

by Matzushocka on Jan 28, 2008 10:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

Totally agree with both statements Matz. I expect Santana and CC to both be pitching in NY, one for the Mets, the other the Yanks.

by SoxAcumen on Jan 29, 2008 4:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

Twins GM Bill Smith would be wrong to keep Santana over the course of the season, and let him go for the two draft picks. However, if I were GMing, I wouldn't have traded him by now either. Playing the waiting game, there's a chance that Omar Minaya or the three-headed dragon that is the Yankees FO (Hank, Hal and Brian) does something stupid. Theo hasn't tried to apply pressure - he's fine with last-minute negotiations (see Boras/Matsuzaka in December of 06). So Smith is justified in waiting.

Assuming this is the strategy, I think Smith has done well so far. He's traded for a potential star OF in Delmon Young and locked up core players. All he needs to do is trade Santana well, and his first offseason will be a success.

by 0157H7 on Jan 28, 2008 10:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

The GM is playing poker but its like he has overvalued his hand and also mis-read his opponents. Santana is worth what the market is willing to trade and what the big money teams are willing to pay. If the Twins cannot reconcile this, well they will get nothing.

The Twins have everything to lose here. Yanks and Sox will both survive without Santana, especially with all the FA pitchers coming down the line. Guys like Brad Penny, CC, and Kazmir are going to be available and I would expect both the Yanks and Sox to be in on each.

Ellsbury or Hughes is better than 2 draft picks. IF that is all that is available, well you take it and run.

by SoxAcumen on Jan 29, 2008 4:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

If this is poker, then there are still a lot of outs. This is an open-ended straight-flush draw. As more cards get turned it could get weaker, but the Yanks and Sox will both still move for Santana through spring training, if the Twins decide to pull the trigger. Might they get slightly less than was offered - yes. Might they get more - perhaps (particularly if there's a season-threatening injury to a Yankee starter). Will they get nothing - no.

Incidentally, a Tribe-fan friend of mine says they should take the two picks. I don't subscribe to this, but obviously there are some (well, at least 1!) who do.

by CountyJez on Jan 29, 2008 4:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

Just from a Red Sox-trade perspective, the Twins will not do better than Ellsbury/Masterson/Lowrie with 2 compensatory picks. That line of thinking is just out of whack.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jan 29, 2008 9:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

I dont agree that the Yanks and Sox will be in on Santana during the season. I believe both have the same mentality = Sure, we will listen but we also like our guys, Hughes, Ellsbury, Lester, etc..

Time is ticking on Smith, if Santana is not traded before spring training, he will not only lose the Yanks and Sox, nobody is going to give up MLB quality prospects for a 3 month rent of a guy who will be testing free agency for a A-Rod type deal.

It makes 0 sense, why would Johan play for a loser all year, then allow a trade to a contender, or even a possible contender, when the $$$$ is just sitting there waiting for him in 3 months AND it most likely will come from two of the top contenders/biggest markets in the MLB?

Nope, Smith has about 6 weeks and every day Santana sits on his roster he loses players.

Just think if the Sox move Coco, this whole debate is moot and everyone takes prospects out of their offers and the Twins get nothing.

Smith should of moved Santana during the Winter Meetings when the table was hot, now he is pretty much screwed.

by SoxAcumen on Jan 29, 2008 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

I've heard the "we'll take the 2 draft picks" sentiments before and it seems to come from lukewarm fans that follow other sports probably more and don't realize that high draft picks mean a lot less in baseball then in other sports. There are so many 1st round picks that amount to nothing in baseball, and so many non-first round picks the excel. It's not like basketball where the first couple of picks are sure-fire. Draftees in baseball still have so much development that often having a first round pick is a crap shot.

http://newsshouldbeentertainment.blogspot.com/ when news articles are too long to read

by Realistic on Jan 29, 2008 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

We really have no idea if Bill smith is a good GM or not until something happens with this trade. I like the signing of Morneau and Cuddyer as well as picking up Delmon Young by using a Twins surplus(young pitching).

I think he needed to be overwhelmed to get rid of him earlier but now it's the 11th hour and the Twins will accept one of the deals we've heard about unless one of the three involved teams panics and gives him what he wants.

As a Twins fan I'm torn on all these deals. I start salivating about Ellsbury, then Hughes, I'm curious about Lester and whether Crisp can return to his old form. Then I look at the Mets deals and think about the amazing potential but huge risk there. I think all fans can agree that they just want to see something done so we can stop speculating about what will happen and just discuss an actual trade.

by halfchest on Jan 29, 2008 2:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

Well, and you have to wonder given the Mets reported offer, whether the risk is worth it when the commodity being traded is a Johan Santana. You have to think that there's some pressure to get players who are a little more proven/safe such as some of the players in the Yankee or Sox offers.

I mean, the total ceiling on the Mets guys might be more than the Yankee or Sox packages, but then you have to figure that given distance from the Majors of most of them, that the "bust" potential is probably higher as well. Or maybe it should just be looked at as the same, as even the excellent pitching form of Phil Hughes or the "electricity" of a Jacoby Ellsbury isn't necessarily risk-free either.

Not that I'm unbiased, but I still think the "hidden gem" in the discussions is Jed Lowrie. To me, he's a switch-hitting, taller (probably, but not necessarily = better range) Dustin Pedroia, with probably a bit more pop (better ISoP at similar levels). That's a pretty damn good player, even if he probably won't be playing SS once he loses a bit in terms of speed (which isn't tremendous in the first place...). I think he's as safe/projectable a prospect as there is in the upper minors w/ no ML experience. Again. Not at all unbiased, obviously.

by Allen Chace on Jan 29, 2008 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

I am personally hoping the Mets do get Santana and Bedard gets traded out of the AL East and the Sox keep their prospects.

Then the Sox get better through other team's moves and we still have the best staff in baseball (Starters+relief+closers) and we still have the best post season pitcher in the game and the best 1+2 in Manny + Papi in our lineup.

Then if we need another arm the Sox can go after Penny, Kazmir, or CC next season or maybe even Yu Darvish or someone out of left field.

Santana a Met and Bedard a Mariner gives the Sox like another 5 wins.

by SoxAcumen on Jan 29, 2008 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

I think Santana will be a Met.

And I agree, I'd like to see Bedard gone. But I have no doubt that Angelos will find a way to f- that one up.

by Allen Chace on Jan 29, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

I agree with you on Lowrie. I want him to platoon with Lugo at some point and eventually replace him. Or maybe he could shift over to third by the time Lowell's contract is up.

Either way, I think the Crisp, Lester deal is better than the Ellsbury one for both teams. Ellsbury is probably overrated, but Crisp would do better in Minnesota and I think Jacoby is a good fit for the Sox. The Yankees deal isn't bad either. The Twins have three or four good offers on the table and it's only a matter of time before they pick one.

by Schulz on Jan 29, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Santana staying put? [Promoted Diary]

I agree, but I definitely think it'd be unfair to put Lowrie in that position. Let him start the season in AAA (only played 40 games there last season anyway), and see where you're at with Lugo and/or trade needs come late June/July. Otherwise, let him finish the season at AAA and then trade him for something of value next offseason. I hate the idea of him waiting around til he's 25-26 to get a crack at a starting job with a ML club. His bat (for a MI) is too good.

by Allen Chace on Jan 29, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs