Best Outfield Arms: let's talk sabermetrics!

by SoxDevil on Jan 10, 2008 12:59 PM EST in News

John Walsh at the Hardball Times has released his 3rd annual "Best outfield arms" report. I highly suggest reading the entire thing here.

First, a primer from John Walsh:

Using play-by-play data, I consider five different situations when a throw from the outfield is important:

Single with runner on first base (second base unoccupied).
Double with runner on first base.
Single with runner on second base.
Fly out with runner on third base, fewer than two outs.
Fly out with runner on second base, fewer than two outs (third base unoccupied).

For those plays, I add up how often the runner is thrown out (kill) or how often the runner is "held," i.e. prevented from taking an extra base (hold). A comparison with league average allows me to rate the outfielder's arm.

With that in mind, here are the studs from '07 across all 3 outfield positions as sorted by Runs/200. What's most surprising to me is Soriano's outstanding numbers from left field.

MLB leaders
Player	Position	Opps	Kill+	Hold+	Runs	Runs/200
Soriano, Alfonso	LF	152	266	108	12.9	17.0
Cuddyer, Mike	RF	164	245	110	12.0	14.6
Francoeur, Jeff	RF	177	241	112	11.9	13.4
Victorino, Shane	RF	135	170	128	8.2	12.2
Young, Delmon	RF	171	168	121	9.2	10.8
Upton, B.J.	CF	108	224	101	4.6	8.5
Taveras, Willy	CF	99	240	102	3.0	6.1
Rios, Alexis	RF	160	124	112	4.5	5.6
Edmonds, Jim	CF	125	166	111	3.5	5.6
Teahen, Mark	RF	183	172	95	4.8	5.3
Suzuki, Ichiro	CF	199	143	116	5.2	5.2
Freel, Ryan	CF	81	120	104	2.0	5.0
Cabrera, Melky	CF	185	207	99	4.2	4.5
Monroe, Craig	LF	103	154	106	2.2	4.3

How do our beloved Red Sox stack up? Not very well, to be quite honest.

Boston Red Sox
Player	Position	Opps	Kill+	Hold+	Runs	Runs/200
Crisp, Coco	CF	148	24	105	-0.1	-0.2
Ramirez, Manny	LF	129	110	90	-0.9	-1.5
Nixon, Trot	(former) RF	82	127	101	-1.1	-2.6
Drew, J.D.	RF	114	73	94	-1.8	-3.1

Many thanks to John Walsh for compiling and posting this fantastic report. Again, you can read the entire article here.

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Comments

Re: Best Outfield Arms: let's talk sabermetrics!

Arm strength is just one consideration for outfield defense. In terms of overall defense, Drew was a disappointment in RF, but still better than the injured Trot would've been. Manny was Manny, which is to say, a below average LF. Coco was a revelation defensively, however. He provided 8.5 fielding win shares; by contrast, Ichiro only had 3.3, Willy Taveras had 4.1, Melky Cabrera had 4.9 (THT).

by 0157H7 on Jan 10, 2008 1:40 PM EST reply actions

Re: Best Outfield Arms: let's talk sabermetrics!

I absolutely agree E-coli. Arm strength is just one measurement, but it's one that I haven't seen much concrete data or discussion about. Usually, people just exclaim, "He's got a cannon!" I found Walsh's discussion and data very interesting.

I would like to see some sort of measurement that compiles arm strength and range into an overall defensive metric for outfielders.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jan 10, 2008 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Best Outfield Arms: let's talk sabermetrics!

Soriano has been praised for the past couple of years for his arm in the outfield. The reason is easy, his side arm style throw. He is very quick at getting rid of the ball and that time makes up for the strenth. Let's not forget he is in LF, who knows how he would do in CF or RF with longer throws.

by drabidea on Jan 10, 2008 1:55 PM EST reply actions

Re: Best Outfield Arms: let's talk sabermetrics!

Manny has a very similar, quick-release throw, though it isn't purely sidearm. It's fun to watch and I actually thought that Manny's kill rate would be higher.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jan 10, 2008 2:28 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Best Outfield Arms: let's talk sabermetrics!

Mannys problem is the time it takes to get to the ball, though he plays the monster very well.

You know, a lot of people say they didn't want to die until the Red Sox won the World Series. Well, there could be a lot of busy ambulances tomorrow.

by BoSox415 on Jan 16, 2008 5:44 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Best Outfield Arms: let's talk sabermetrics!

I figured Crisp and Drew would be down there, but I wouldn't think Manny would be that far down as well. I think "arm strength" is only one part of huge equation when considering effectiveness in the outfield. It's a minor part because I think quickness and knowledge of where to throw is more important.

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Jan 10, 2008 2:01 PM EST reply actions

Re: Best Outfield Arms: let's talk sabermetrics!

only one part

Quite right. Melky's got a very good arm, but I reckon is well below average when considered overall. Bossman Junior's a butcher out there.

For a CF, the vital attribute is range and read on the ball
For a RF, the vital attribute is arm strength
For a LF, the vital attribute is not peeing in the scoreboard

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Jan 10, 2008 2:38 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Best Outfield Arms: let's talk sabermetrics!

Manny has a cannon for an arm, but I think his assists were low because of too many errant throws.

by 0157H7 on Jan 10, 2008 2:58 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Best Outfield Arms: let's talk sabermetrics!

Really? My impression is that Manny's arm is generally fairly accurate. That's based on perception alone, and it's rather hard to kill a guy at the plate even from the Green Monster.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jan 11, 2008 1:12 PM EST up reply actions