Series with the Yankees

... will be incredibly important, agreed.  I'm hoping for a "Slaughter on 161st Street" to avenge last year's "Boston Massacre II."  

On to the substance of the diary:

1)  Pitching---are you crazy?  Beckett's not just the bright side of our rotation, he's a legitimate-if-not-quite-favored Cy Young candidate.  Matsuzaka has his trouble spots but is otherwise a win- and strikeout-generating machine.  Our fourth starter Wakefield is 13-10 (! did I mention "fourth starter"?), Lester's a young kid with a lot of upside, and then you have our "ace," who's admittedly struggled with injuries but has had moments of brilliance and still is a contribution to the rotation.

But the starters are just half of it.  The Red Sox have not just the best 'pen in the American League, but a 'pen that is strikingly better than the rest of the AL (a stat I got from Baseball Prospectus this morning says they're 11.96 in WXRL, compared to 10.05 for the second-best Twins, and far ahead of the fifth-best Indians, with 7.86).  Bottom line, our pitching is something to be envied, not bemoaned.  

   2.  Defense---maybe you're not crazy, exactly.  If Lugo makes that double play last night, the inning ends tied 4-4, Wakefield stays in longer.... I don't want to think about it anymore.  Manny is still being Manny in left.  Lowell?  I haven't noticed.  Overall, however, our defense is solid---fifth in the majors by fielding percentage.  You mentioned Coco---did you forget about Dusty and Youk?  Varitek?  

   3.  Offense---umm, I'm swinging back to "are you crazy."  Fourth in the majors in runs scored.  Fourth.  Yes, the Yankees and Tigers are ahead of us.  They're also 15th/19th in pitching (team ERA), and we're 2nd.  Batting is only half the game, and it counts for less than half the game in the playoffs.

Let me back off for a second:  The offense is not what we thought it would be; in fact, it's the part of the team that is the biggest negative surprise.  Who would have thought Manny couldn't protect Ortiz, or that Ortiz would not actually need any protection because he's got a severe case of the warning-track-itis?  And the Red Sox are still first?  This doesn't seem to me a terrible cause for concern as much as a source of hopeful anticipation---if and when Ortiz and Manny get back to their old form, the Sox are going to be scary.  

The Yankees....  Hey, I'll cop to it.  I'm a bit spooked.  I really, really, really don't want my hundred or so Yankee fan friends (I live in New York) gloating about some grand comeback from 14 1/2 back all offseason.  However, the Yanks have a really soft schedule.  They're playing a crippled Toronto while we're playing a great Angels squad.  They just feasted on Royals pitching while the Sox were struggling against the Central leading Cleveland.  Guess what? the soft schedule is coming to an end soon---they face Cleveland, Anaheim, Detroit and the Red Sox.  Their offense has been explosive as of late, but there's a reason they're not on pace to score 1,620 runs this season---they're not going to score 10 runs a game.  

"Lucky to make the playoffs"?  Okay, it's official:  You're crazy.  Someone needs to take away your shoelaces.  If the Red Sox play .600 ball the rest of the way they'll be 98-64.  You know how many games we play against Tampa Bay (12), Chicago (4) and Baltimore (7) during that stretch?  47% of the remaining games, with the Rays comprising roughly one quarter of our schedule.  

None of this should be taken as "don't worry they'll be fine everything is copacetic."  I'm concerned, too.  But a five game lead isn't something to bemoan, as much as I'd like to be looking at a 19 1/2 lead and a possible elimination party at Yankee stadium.  I think all this pessimism is exaggerated.

Tony the Pony