"In" Lugo's Defense.

by Allen Chace on Aug 17, 2007 5:51 AM EDT

Julio Lugo is an awful SS, right? Who cares what offensive upgrade he was supposed to represent when he has shown he wouldn't even be able to lick the dirt off of A-Gon's cleats. But really. Is he that bad? Is A-Gon still (or was he ever) the demigod at SS we believed him to be?

Statistical BS.

Let's take a look at how the two compare statistically, in a few different ways.

THT's RZR: This stat has to do with how many balls hit into a player's "zone" he turns into an out. Clear advantage to A-Gon here: .854-.790.

THT's OOZ: This has to do with how many balls hit outside a player's "zone" he turns into an out. Advantage to Lugo, who has 45 to A-Gon's 30 (tied for least among qualified SS, along with Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Guillen, and some guy named Jeter). I should mention that Lugo has played more innings than A-Gon, though adjusting for this inconsistency only adds 5-6 to Gonzalez's total.

BP's Rate2: The most important thing to remember about Rate2 is that it normalizes defensive statistics according to league and over time. It is based on 100, where below 100 represents "not very good" and over 100 represents "at least pretty good". I fear I haven't explained it well, so go here. Gonzalez this season: 97. Lugo: 94. Both in the "not very good" range, with A-Gon, again, being slightly better. I'll cheat to help my point by saying this: Gonzalez has never been higher than 101 on this scale in a full season, while Lugo has had three scores higher than that: 103, 108, 112.

"Errors": Remember how we all have been cursing Lugo's errors this season? 14, on the year. In less playing time, A-Gon is already up to 15.

What does it all mean?

Well, it means that remembering A-Gon as some kind of fielding savior compared to Lugo may not be correct, and in case you were wondering, mixed results on O-Cab as well. He comes out slightly ahead of Lugo on RZR (.800), behind in OOZ balls in more playing time (34), and is way ahead of both in Rate2 (114).

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Comments

Re: "In" Lugo's Defense.

Nice job, Allen. I had no problem with the Sox letting Gonzalez go.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Aug 17, 2007 7:12 AM EDT reply actions

Re: "In" Lugo's Defense.

On offense, Gonzalez has a the following line:
.262/.317/.475 (16 HR, 0 SB, 1CS)
Compared to Lugo's:
.238/.298/.346 (6 HR, 27 SB, 4CS)

When the Sox made this signing, I expected Lugo to be an unqualified offensive improvement, and slight defensive downgrade. AGon's numbers are probably inflated slightly by being in the NL Central; he could well have been even worse here. Lugo's been coming around offensively: his lines for July (.314, .377, .448) and August have been much better (.358, .375, .491).

With the exception of ARod, there aren't going to be any FA shortstops available that would be a major improvement over Lugo. Should the Sox try to upgrade the position and dump Lugo, or hold onto him for another year?

by 0157H7 on Aug 17, 2007 10:08 AM EDT reply actions

Re: "In" Lugo's Defense.

With both the amount of years/money we gave him adn the fact that he has been turning it around as of lately, I would give him another year to prove himself, see if he just had a bad adjusting period (a la Beckett...although he was coming over from the AL, so that have been a greater factor for him)

by Realistic on Aug 17, 2007 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions

VORP

AGon's VORP is 14 while Lugo's is 0.7.

Lugo is like so hot right now though, and I expect him to reach a reasonable level in the next year or two.

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Aug 17, 2007 10:30 AM EDT reply actions

Re: VORP

Ugh. You had to bring up those numbers? Ugly. :)

And yeah, that (Hansel/Lugo) is so hot right now.

by Allen Chace on Aug 17, 2007 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions

The middle infield of the future

might be a combination of Pedroia, Lugo and Lowrie. All can play SS and 2B. We've got Cora for another year, but I'd explore trading options over the winter.

Anyway, that's me for the weekend because of a busted laptop at home. All I have to add is: Go Clay!

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Aug 17, 2007 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions