Open Thread: 7.12.07 vs. Toronto

Also, .600 the rest of the way seems really reachable, as the Sox are .614 on the season.  With 435 runs scored and 346 runs allowed, their pythagorean is roughly 190K / (190K + 120K), or .613---or very close to what their actual record is.  That's good enough for 99/100 wins on the season, which the Yankees could only match with a second-half pace of .737 (56-20).  The Yanks' pythagorean, by the way, is about .550, predicting a 42-34 second half.  

Knocking wood, of course.  

That's impressive!

Now, granted, the MFY stink this year, but they have a very weak schedule the rest of the way and they played better than their record would indicate so far. I think .600 ball is attainable for them the rest of the way. Call that 46 more wins the rest of the way, which would leave them with 89 wins. Boston would only need 26 more wins to win the division -- that's a .351 winning percentage the rest of the way. That's why I don't want Theo to be too hasty making trades -- it's damn near impossible for us to miss the playoffs at this point, so we ought to be able to get our key players a lot of rest down the stretch. That way they'll be healthy for the playoffs and we won't have to part with any prized prospects.

Of course, if someone offers Theo a great deal -- think Pujols or Cabrera for, say, David Murphy -- he should take it. It's just that when you acquire a star player in a deadline deal, you usually end up giving away prospects who could end up being just as good as or better than (collectively, at least) the star you acquire, just for the uncertain proposition of winning now. This year, we can afford to insist on giving away a little bit less if any deals are made.

If this team is healthy in October, any opponent is going to have to be extraordinarily hot and lucky to win a playoff series.