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Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.

  • Ace No. 1, Josh Beckett.
    What can I say about our man Becks? He's been everything we thought we were getting last year. According to the ever/dubiously-popular FIP (What the F is this?), he's been the best in the AL this season, and third best in the ML behind Jake Peavy and Chris Young. No matter how you slice it, he's put himself in elite company.  Let's hope those avulsions that caused us such revulsion are a thing of the past. (Good god that was clever.) A
  • Ace No. 2, Daisuke Matsuzaka.
    There were some (including me), who thought Matsuzaka's first season in the Majors would be one completely of transition. Kind of a "temper your expectations boys, a 4.50 ERA on the season with a few complete butt-kickings would be a great sign". He's gone far beyond that, pairing with Josh Beckett to deliver on the promise of two young aces with the ability to rack up the Ks. He's 6th in the Majors in K/G, and he's been walking a lot less batters recently. If his second-half is more like his last several starts before the Tiger HR-binge, we're probably looking at the strongest of 3 RoY candidates on this team. B
  • Man that Almost No-No Was Nice, Curt Schilling.
    Ah, Curtalicious. It seems so long since we've seen you. His stats this season have neither been particularly encouraging or discouraging. The 1.36 WHIP doesn't look too pretty, but his 4.05 FIP shows that he personally has done a decent job at minimizing the damage. If he comes back this same pitcher, he'll be more than acceptable as the #3 starter (while acknowledging that all these rankings are useless anyway), but we need to (and are) now looking at Daisuke and Josh as the stoppers in the rotation. C
  • Love Ya Pal, But Could You Find a Caddy Who Hits?, Tim Wakefield.
    Ready for this? I, an unabashed Wakefield-supporter in all things, am ready for him to retire. And this isn't (just) because of his aforementioned hitting-challenged caddy. I'm talking about a line-drive rate that has jumped since just last season (16+% - 22+%), and the fact that his ERA SHOULD be about half a run higher than it is. His walk-rate has also been climbing the last few years. I'm not ready to bet against him (as we all know, the knuckleball is tough to predict, even/especially for the wielder), but the tide may be turning. C-
  • This Plan Is So Crazy It Just Might Work, Julian Tavarez.
    We entered the season with possibly equal amounts of excitement and trepidation at the thought of Julian Tavarez, Red Sox 5th starter. I'd say we've been delivered both. He's allowed a lot of hits (and this has never been his strong suit), and has allowed almost 1 1/2 baserunners per IP. In the same token, the sinking action on his fastball probably means that his low LD rate (15.7%) isn't neccessarily a fluke, and he's been entertaining on the mound. We may be calling for his head if he doesn't improve on his recent results, but the term "serviceable 5th starter" would probably just make him feel insulted. C+
  • "This is just a temp gig." "Temp gig?" "Temporary gig.", Kason Gabbard.
    Walk rate. Walk rate. WALK RATE. Kason Gabbard walks entirely too many batters. 18 hits and 17 Ks in 20 1/3 IP. These are excellent numbers from a AAA callup. 13 BBs in the same amount of time does not bode so well. The good news is that his walk numbers in the Minors were definitely better, so hopefully it's jitters and he'll move on from it soon. I, Incomplete
  • Devern Hansack had only one start, so I'm not going to analyze his big-league results. However, should something happen and the Sox need a spot starter, he has gotten back on track in AAA. As of this writing, he has 87 Ks in 90 IP, along with a 1.13 WHIP. However, a few great starts in AAA from new callup Clay Buchholz could push Hansack further down that particular chart.
Up Next: Bullpen Report Cards, Immediately Following this Post! (probably mid-late morningish, CDT) Then I'm going to take a bit of a break for the ASG and finish up Lineup/Bench and an Overall Report Card, probably Wednesday afternoon, or Randy might beat me to it.

[editor's note, by Allen Chace]Grades have been changed (specifically Beckett's which kind of started the dominoes) to reflect the good arguments on the part of RSNexile.

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Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
Beckett can have the A, but A+? Not with that ERA.

by RSNexile on Jul 10, 2007 5:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
Come on, RSNexile. Whether you believe in FIP or not, (I guess not), it's roughly analogous to ERA, and he's been the best among those qualified for the ERA title in the AL. He's been well among the best in the bigs at limiting walks, and we all know hits against are somewhat a product of fate/luck anyway. Take Beckett's slightly abnormally-bad .313 BABIP vs. .246 for Dan Haren, .210! for Jeremy Guthrie. Not to take away from Haren or Guthrie, but in terms of their technique and approach to hitters this season, Beckett has been at LEAST as good, if not better.
"Interesting. No wait, the other thing. Tedious." -Bender Bending Rodriguez.

by Allen Chace on Jul 11, 2007 4:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
I believe in results first and foremost. FIP is essentially an indicator of what should be, while ERA is an indicator of what is. If Beckett can get his ERA down closer to his FIP, he's an A+ pitcher. Further, that .313 BABIP isn't so far above his career average of .294.

But I won't overvalue FIP -- by the same token, look at Lugo. His BABIP is .215 this year, a full 100 points lower than his career average. Clearly some of that is because he's hitting more grounders (53.3%) and fewer liners (14.5%) than his career averages (48.9% and 19.4%), but he's also clearly been very unlucky. But he's also walking more and striking out less than his career averages. Accordingly, it's likely that his numbers will improve significantly in the second half of the season. But would you give him anything higher than a D for his results thus far?

by RSNexile on Jul 11, 2007 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
See, but saying you believe in results first and foremost almost makes you sound like one of those "writers" who believes wins are the most important measure to judge a pitcher by (Jon Heyman), and I know that's not how you are.

I feel like, especially with the walk rate, Beckett has shown himself to be very much among the elite. I don't see how you can't take what should at least somewhat into account.

I might be distorting your point with this next metaphor, but is it essentially like me giving the smart kid who turns in B work an A rather than a B? Unless this has in fact not gotten your point, then I would say that Beckett has been giving an A+ effort/technique/approach and has been rewarded with A and B+ results.

And really, I'm kind of dreading writing about Julio Lugo for this. Part of me wants to give him like a B- because of all the points you've made, and then obviously the poor poor poor poor poor batting average make me want to give him a much lower letter, maybe a V or a W.

"Interesting. No wait, the other thing. Tedious." -Bender Bending Rodriguez.

by Allen Chace on Jul 11, 2007 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
This:
is it essentially like me giving the smart kid who turns in B work an A rather than a B?

...is exactly the point. When one of my students works his/her butt off but the results aren't A quality, s/he isn't going to get an A. That's how it should be. For an A+, all his numbers should be Cy Young quality, and his ERA just isn't there right now. I'll grant you that Beckett's effort has been A+ quality, but his results aren't. He gets an A from me; if he can bring his ERA more in line with his FIP while keeping his other numbers where they are, he still has a shot at an A+ for the full season.

And for the record, because I believe wins are probably the second worst way to judge a pitcher's quality (after saves), I'd say the same if all his other numbers were identical but his record was 2-12.

Ultimately, though, if Lugo doesn't deserve grade inflation because the numbers just aren't there, neither does Beckett. In fact, as I always tell my students, grade inflation is worse for those who perform well because it ultimately devalues their efforts.

by RSNexile on Jul 11, 2007 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
But here's the thing:
He gets an A from me; if he can bring his ERA more in line with his FIP while keeping his other numbers where they are, he still has a shot at an A+ for the full season.

But we've already established, in my opinion, that he's been the victim of a small amount of poor luck, and that some of these things are outside a pitcher's control. What Beckett can control (BB/9, K/BB, K/9) has proven him to be an exceptional pitcher this season.

Maybe I just don't want to go back and change ALL of them. If I change Beckett to an A, I can't give semi walk-happy Daisuke an A as well.

"Interesting. No wait, the other thing. Tedious." -Bender Bending Rodriguez.

by Allen Chace on Jul 11, 2007 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
In all things in life, luck is a factor, and results still matter. If you're not going to mark up Lugo for being unlucky, I don't think you should mark up Beckett for being unlucky, particularly since Lugo's luck has been far worse.

What can I say? I'm a social scientist and a teacher. Consistency matters to me. And speaking of consistency, 10 quality starts out of 16 doesn't cut it, either. Those aren't Cy Young numbers, and that's what you need for an A+.

by RSNexile on Jul 11, 2007 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
How does everyone think the rotation will look next year?
I think we keep either Schill or Wake but not both, simply because both are aging and loosing effectivness.

With that in mind:

  1. Becket
  2. Matsuzaka
  3. Schilling/Wakefield
  4. Lester?
  5. Buccholz?
What do you guys think

by Schulz on Jul 10, 2007 6:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
I reckon this is Schilling's last season. I would bet on the FO retaining Wakefield, as a cheap league-average starter. I'm not so sure we'll start the season with both Lester and Buchholz in the rotation, though there's a long time to go until then.
Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Jul 10, 2007 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
Wake is a league average pitcher this year, but he's deteriorating, and if you keep him, you keep Mirabelli too. Curt is losing effectiveness too, but I'd keep him if he'll sign for $8M for one year, maybe with an option for a second year. He can have performance bonuses too if that helps.

by RSNexile on Jul 10, 2007 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
It's a very good question - given Curt's injury/fatigue problems, does that change his expectations for a contract next year? He's clearly not going to be a $13m pitcher in 2008.
Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Jul 11, 2007 3:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
What has happened to Lester anyway?...there was a time when he was the second coming, or at least it seemed that way to me.
You can take the boy outta Boston, but you can't take the Boston outta the boy.

by B Cap on Jul 10, 2007 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sox Mid-Season Report Cards: Rotation.
Cancer. They don't want to rush him back, and he's doing pretty well in AAA.

by RSNexile on Jul 10, 2007 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dice-K
I dunno about an A for Dice-K. He's been acceptable, but not impressive. It's all I can do to keep from blurting out "we paid how much for THAT" when he's on the mound.

In short, I think he's the iPhone of the bullpen. Overpriced for a lot of flash and a substance level that is probably just par.

My grade: B.

by sdkramer.otm on Jul 11, 2007 9:17 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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