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Premature Extrapolation: C, 2008/2009

Let's face it people.  Varitek is not going to last forever for us.  His bounceback (it will happen!) will likely be fairly modest this season.  I expect a .270/15/70 line from him, which is certainly not a 'put him out to pasture'-type season.  However, he is certainly getting older and less potent with the bat.  One also assumes that the workload will need to be eased a bit more than one day per cycle in the very near future.

How to solve this minor problem?  Well, don't worry.  I'm here to present the options and to not answer that question in the least.

Internal Candidates.

  • George Kottaras.  Kottaras has some doubters out there, not the least of which is one of my co-bloggers here on OTM.  As you can read on soxprospects, his build is a bit slight for a catcher and his catching skills are described as average.  He most likely will hit enough, but it could be a significant sacrifice in defense (I suppose this depends on your opinion of Varitek).  
  • Jonathan Egan.  To me, Egan is like Kottaras with a little bit less defensive (and overall) polish.  I think he is actually a pretty unlikely option, and is probably a candidate to be moved to 1B or LF in the future if he can hit enough.
  • Mark Wagner.  Here again, we'd be sacrificing one side of the game (potentially) to improve the other.  This time, it's the offense that is in question.  Mark will undoubtedly have a ML career, at least as a defensive-minded backup.  His ability or inability to maintain a BA of about .260-.270 with a decent OBP will decide whether or not he'll start in the bigs.
Decent FAs/2008.

Should none of the above MiLs look primed for a jump by mid-2008 or 2009, do we need to wait until after Tek's contract is up to search for a FA replacement?  In addition, there's going to be a (relative)glut of ML catching talent available in the 2007 off-season.

  • Michael Barrett.  Like Carlos Zambrano, Barrett is going to force the Cubs to think about their free-spending ways and whether or not they still have enough money to lock up their core internal players.  Barrett may or may not be allowed to leave.  He's a folk hero in...well...a lot of cities because of this.  He's been knocked about his defense most of his career, but it's hard to deny the offensive punch (16 HRs last season in 375 ABs).  The concern here is that at age 31 (age at potential signing) he might have peaked already.
  • Rod Barajas.  A year older than Barrett, Rod Barajas was the subject of some minor dispute this offseason.  Barajas may be a bit better than Barrett on defense, but he'll make up for it by being the lesser offensive talent.  He's probably looking at a future as a backup catcher.
  • Jason Kendall.  Wow.  His SLG has been lower than his .OBP the last three seasons.  I don't want Kendall, but I will mention the positives anyway: Hasn't played less than 143 games since 1999, career .OBP of .381.
  • Ivan Rodriguez.  Now we're talking.  Though he'll be 36 at possible signing, I-Rod is still a top defensive catcher, who will probably extend his career due to his new, better conditioning (or getting off the juice, if you believe those rumors).  His SLG has slipped the past two seasons, and he was never a terribly patient hitter.  Seems like a reasonable option if he'll take a maximum of two years.  Biggest competition here will probably be the Tigers, as Sickels' top prospect list doesn't even mention catchers in his 'Others of Note' category.  The other problem is that with Tek still under contract, there could be significant ego-bruising between these two.
  • Jorge Posada.  Yeah.  Okay.  I don't see this happening either.  And I really don't like the prick.  But the guy can still hit, and his defensive skills actually improved a bit last season.  Still, like I said, very unlikely.
  • Potential 1-year shared duty/placeholders: Yorvit Torrealba (certainly can handle the catching part)., Jose Molina, again, good defensively, though he'll probably look for an unjustifiable multi-year deal. Brad Ausmus, seeing a theme here?  And they all get older and older.
Decent FAs/2009.

Wondering why I'm so possibly half-interested in finding someone before Tek's contract is up?  Check out this market.

  • Johnny Estrada.  Enh?  Anyone?  C'mon people.  This is like Michael Barrett-lite at the plate, though I suppose he is a bit better a receiver.  And he's never even punched Pierzynski.
  • A.J. Pierzynski.  Relax.  This is probably as likely as that whole Posada thing.  He can hit for some average and some pop, and is great at pissing off fanbases.  We might be able to grow to like him on the whole, though I'm not sure I'd ever accept him myself.
  • David Ross.  This is the kind of player I put on here for completion purposes.  The Reds hold a reasonable team option, so one of two things happen.  He falls off the map, and he's undesirable anyway, or he plays well and they exercise it.  
That's it.  Let me know if I missed anyone, and be sure to comment on who and what situation would be your particular preference.

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Re: Premature Extrapolation: C, 2008/2009
I have to think that by 2008 Kottaras will be the guy or have washed out. We'll have a pretty solid idea of which direction he's headed by the end of this year.

Not to mention, it's worthwhile bringing up a young guy to attend the Varitek School of Game-Calling.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Feb 14, 2007 10:43 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Premature Extrapolation: C, 2008/2009
It's good point that we don't have to wait until Varitek's contract is up to bring in his eventual successor, but the problem with bringing in said replacement before 'Tek's contract is up is that the replacement can't be someone who's an established big league receiver. Guys like Barrett and Rodriguez won't want to (and don't deserve to) spend a year as a back-up. So the only way I see us attracting a top tier FA catcher before the deal is up is if Varitek suffers a very bad injury.

That said, what we could do is trying to stock up on catching prospects. Kottaras in a possibility, but he'll have to do well in limited playing time (which can be tough to do) these next few years to prove himself to the front office. Tek is under contract for two more years, so that gives us time to look out for catching prospects when we conduct trades. Personally I'd prefer the idea of going with a combination of Kottaras and an aquired prospect once 'Tek is done, but I'm not sure our FO has the patience to do that.

I see it as a likely scenario that someone is brought in as a FA after Varitek's last year, but that's not necessarily what I'm hoping for. I'll have to do scouting on other team's catching prospects...

"Your best? Losers always whine about 'giving it their best.' Winners go home and fuck the prom queen." "Carla was the prom queen."

by Saberrox on Feb 14, 2007 10:57 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Premature Extrapolation: C, 2008/2009
I should add that when push comes to shove, give me the catcher who can hit over the younger Molina-types any day.
"Your best? Losers always whine about 'giving it their best.' Winners go home and fuck the prom queen." "Carla was the prom queen."

by Saberrox on Feb 14, 2007 10:58 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Premature Extrapolation: C, 2008/2009
I know were loathe to trade pitching, but if Kotteras bombs, I could see flipping one of our young studs for a catching prospect. For example, if Salty shows that he can play the position this year, I wouldn't be suprised if we traded a Bowden/Bard type for him. I'm sure their are other C prospects out there, but Salty is the only one that comes to mind.
Just my two cents. Keep the change.

by tommy.otm on Feb 15, 2007 12:20 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Premature Extrapolation: C, 2008/2009
Kurt Suzuki (A's) is another one that comes immediately to mind.  However, he'll be ready at just about the time the A's will need him to replace Kendall, so he's likely pretty untouchable.
"Sorry? Sorry doesn't cut it Melissa, I want an apology."-Jason Penopolis, Home Movies

by Allen Chace on Feb 15, 2007 12:28 AM EST up reply actions  

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