Myth Buster: Melky is a Good Player

by Realistic on Dec 3, 2007 5:33 PM EST Comment 11 comments

Wasting my whole day reading about the whole Santana issue everywhere in hopes of catching new news I got sick of so many Yankee fans overrating Melky and claiming is a better bargaining chip then Ellsbury, let alone Coco, so I decided to finally put this issue to rest:

Easiest way to do this, compare Coco (who RSN considers expendible and too weak of a hitter) to Melky. Let me start off by noting that Coco had 526 AB and Melky had 545 AB, so their numbers are comparable. Also, Melky had 450 ABs in the previous year and if his numbers got multiplied to equal 540 ABs again, both years are pretty identical.

DEF

We can just agree on this right? I mean come on, Coco definitely is better defensively then Melky, even if Melky is a pretty good defender himself

Speed/Base Running

Coco stole 28 while Melky stole only 13. I think it's clear who has more speed.

Power Hitting

Coco had 6 HR and a SLG of .382 (which is off from his career SLG or .409, so it's safe to say his power was lower then it normally is this year)

Melky had 8 HR and a SLG of .391 (with a career SLG .388, which considering he only has about one other seasons worth of ABs, all this number means is that he is right around his career numbers thus far)

So basically Melky was just barely better (not really significant enough to say is a better power hitter) and when you take Coco's career numbers, he actually is stronger in power hitting

Getting on Base

Pretty much a wash, Coco had an OBP of .330 which is right in line with his career avg. and Melky had an OBP of .327...pretty much the same

Doing more then just get on base

Coco's avg. .268, Melkys .273. Really insignificant, basically equal, (when you consider .005 equates to an additional 4 hits over an entire season)

Coco's Runs: 85
Melky's Runs: 66

Coco's RBIs: 60
Melky's RBIs: 73

Basically, another wash, the difference in RBIs and Runs says more about where they batted in the line up then it says about who's the better hitter

Conclusion

Hitting was a wash (basically the same in every aspect, power, OBP, and jsut hitting in general), Everything else Coco is better (defense and baserunning/speed). So on a year that Coco vastly underperformed and should undoubtably improve on, he was still a better player then Melky was. Yankee fans...stop overrating Melky like he's a star in the waiting. He's a borderline 4th OF/mediocure starter. He doesn't even come to Ellsbury, and even Coco who RSN in general want to see out the door was better on a down year

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Re: Myth Buster: Melky is a Good Player

Great article. I'm tired of all the over-hyped young yankee players. Melky and IPK are both mediocre and if the Twins were to accept those two for Santana, I would be outraged.

The deal should include Joba/Hughes/Cano + Melky/Kennedy + other prospects

by Schulz on Dec 3, 2007 5:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Myth Buster: Melky is a Good Player

Melky is 7 years younger than Crisp. I have a feeling he will be a .300 hitter in a year or two, and put up more power numbers.

by Albert Chang on Dec 3, 2007 6:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Myth Buster: Melky is a Good Player

Part of the reason Yankee fans rate Melky highly is that we remember Bernie at the same age.

I agree that Melky is not a great player. But he has the potential to become a star player, plus he has the arm to play any of the outfield positions.

His speed (in the field) is great- but he occasionally takes bad routes.

His September slump (.180/.236/.220) raises a few concerns, but age and contract should easily make him worth more than Crisp (who figures to decline and not improve over the next 5 years). Now, if the Red Sox pay all of Coco's salary you have a debate.

"If you're in love with the game, you can't turn it on and off like a light. It's something that runs so deep it takes you over." ~Billy Martin.

by jscape2000 on Dec 3, 2007 6:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Myth Buster: Melky is a Good Player

He still has a debate, considering his point was about who is the better player, not who is the better value.

by Allen Chace on Dec 3, 2007 7:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Myth Buster: Melky is a Good Player

...Yankee fans overrating Melky and claiming is a better bargaining chip then Ellsbury, let alone Coco...

I didn't mean it to be dismissive, but I was imagining who will have more value to the Twins in 2-3 years when they make a run at the Central title.

"If you're in love with the game, you can't turn it on and off like a light. It's something that runs so deep it takes you over." ~Billy Martin.

by jscape2000 on Dec 3, 2007 10:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Myth Buster: Melky is a Good Player

If that's your point, then the real answer should be "neither". They can get more offense (in 2009+), I'm thinking, from the guy they lifted from the D-Rays along with Delmon Young.

So, I guess, neither of them should be spoken of as valuable trade chips for Santana.

And if every single Yankee or hell, any team's OF prospects look like Bernie Williams at Melky's age, we should start assuming that that is their inevitable career path?

by Allen Chace on Dec 3, 2007 10:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Got Delino?

I was just about to say, Yank fans see Bernie, I see a slow Delino DeShields.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Dec 3, 2007 10:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Got Delino?

Man he was fun to watch for no particular reason that I can think of now.

Career stolen base rate of 75%? ...eh.

by Allen Chace on Dec 3, 2007 10:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Myth Buster: Melky is a Good Player

I gotta say I think Melky is a better piece than Coco for sure. Yes their numbers are similar but the difference in age means CoCo most likely won't get any better, he's peaked out. Melky has a lot of potential being so young. In fact, he's actually a year younger than your pride and joy Ellsbury.

I'm not saying I'd rather have Melky over Cabrera but there are a few things to consider.

Melky spent less time at AAA and came up at an earlier age than Ellsbury. He basically has been forced to develop at ML rather than in AAA like Ellsbury.

If you just look at overall Minor League numbers Ellsbury beats him in average and OBP but they're basically the same in .SLG. But like I said if Melky had stayed in for another year he may have bumped his up. His last set of games at AAA were insane, look it up at baseball reference. So insane that he got called up.

Also, don't think Ellsbury is gonna keep up what he did this year. I am pretty sure you guys are smart enough to realize that he was on a hot streak and will not keep that up next year. In fact, I don't want the Twins to trade for him because his stock is way overblown at this point.(Don't throw bats at me!!) While I think Melky would actually be a case of buying low for the Twins because I think he'll improve into a better leadoff hitter eventually.

All those things said, I would rather have Ellsbury over Cabrera straight up. However I'd rather have Hughes&Cabrera over Ellsbury/Lester.

It seems the two options the Twins are holding out for are

Ellsbury, Lester, Lowry

Hughes, Cabrera, Kennedy
or
Hughes, Cabrera, Austin Jackson AND Alan Horne

Those are all sick deals for the Twins. You can say it won't happen but a week ago you said that we'd never see Ellsbury and now he's available.

I think I'd still have to take the Boston deal over either Yanks deal. I love Hughes but your deal gives us a SS and a CF with a good pitcher fills everything we really need.

Sorry this got so damn long.

by halfchest on Dec 4, 2007 2:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Myth Buster: Melky is a Good Player

Eh. A superior OBP/plate patience isn't generally learned by anyone in their 20s. Find exceptions, I'm sure there are a few, but I think it's pretty clear. And I think it was Bill James who believes/proved/estimated that OBP is x amount of times more important than SLG. So in comparing those two, even if Melky SLGs a bit more, Ellsbury should be a better performer/run creator.

ESPN BOLD Prediction: Melky Cabrera will never develop into an adequate leadoff hitter, by most measurements of prowess in that lineup slot. He's a #8 or #9 guy, if he remains a starter at all.

Nothing aside from his last 122 ABs at the AAA level suggest that Cabrera will hit for any amount of power to be reckoned with.

I'm not sure why you'd prefer the guy who was given no room for error and little time to work on certain skills in the minors, to the guy who was brought along slowly until the team was sure he could handle playing at the ML-level.

by Allen Chace on Dec 4, 2007 2:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs