You're not tired of Santana rumors yet, are you?

by SoxDevil on Dec 20, 2007 12:25 PM EST in News

The Red Sox remain the favorite to acquire Johan Santana from the Twins, insiders say. Boston remains firm, though, as initially reported by the Pioneer Press, in offering just Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. The Red Sox are adamantly opposed to substituting Jacoby Ellsbury for Crisp, and that's the current holdup. Regardless, there's buzz that the Santana trade could be made within days.
-St. Paul Pioneer Press

I don't believe the Red Sox are not going to cave on the Ellsbury/Lester issue. Our organization is adept at assigning values to players and sticking to it. See also: Martinez, Pedro, Damon, Johnny.

The last report had the Twins leaning towards the Ellsbury/Lowrie/Masterson deal, but who knows what they'll end up taking. Personally, I think the Lester-led deal is a better fit for the Twinkies.

Minnesota is either going to have to take one of the deals or leave them. Regardless, I hope a decision is made soon so we can move on to other Hot Stove issues.

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Re: You're not tired of Santana rumors yet, are yo

I do not see how the Twins can leave the Lester/Coco/Lowrie/Masterson package on the table. If you figure that only three teams have the money to sign Santana and that the Mets and Yankees will not beat the Red Sox package by including Jose Reyes or Kennedy, well its either our package or two draft picks.

Before the meetings when there was interest and a small bidding war going on, I believed the Twins had the upper hand and could ask for a lot, but now, the Twins are on the clock and its almost midnight.

You played your hand, you gambled, got a pretty solid deal, but holding onto Santana is just not an option.

Take the deal Minny or watch Santana pitch for the Red Sox, Mets or Yankees in 09 and get nothing.

by SoxAcumen on Dec 20, 2007 2:59 PM EST reply actions

You're not tired of Santana rumors yet, are you?

They would seem to value Ellsbury's ceiling very, very high.

Personally I think Coco would go very well at the Twins. Being out of the spotlight and all that.

Its a fair package with Lowrie and Masterson included and after all this time I've become quite ambivalent about it all.

I'd love to have Santana, but the 4 players involved would give us great(and cheap) service for the next few year, so either way is good for me.

I think the sticking point might be negotiating the extension with Santana. I think he wants 6+ years and I'm thinking Theo has offered 5/140 type of thing. Just a hunch, I have no facts to back this up.

by sydneysox on Dec 20, 2007 4:50 PM EST reply actions

Re: You're not tired of Santana rumors yet, are yo

Is he really going to get $28M per year?

by Schulz on Dec 20, 2007 5:13 PM EST up reply actions

You're not tired of Santana rumors yet, are yo

As I said, I have no facts whatsoever to back this up. I think if Theo could get away with 4/120 he'd be more inclined than 6/156 type of thing. But yes, I think he'll get $25mil+/year. Yes, I think its a sh*tload of cash, but NY just spend 45/3 for a 40 yr old relief pitcher who'll throw 60-70 innings; albeit one of the greatest ever, but still....

It'll be the years, you just don't commit to long years for pitching. 3-4 max, even if the pitcher is Santana.

by sydneysox on Dec 20, 2007 5:19 PM EST up reply actions

Re: You're not tired of Santana rumors yet, are yo

True, it will be a pricey contract. If we can come to terms on a swap with the twins, I hope the santana deal won't be for more than 5 years, $130-140 million

by Schulz on Dec 20, 2007 5:23 PM EST up reply actions

Re: You're not tired of Santana rumors yet, are yo

I'm pretty sure the only midnight that matters is sometime in July. The time pressure until then is imaginary.

That said... (1) the Twins should probably take the Lester-Coco deal AND (2) The Sox should give up Lester + Ellsbury if that gets it done, because the Yankees are likely to pull one of their last minute switches and take him otherwise. Painful, but this is Santana. Just pay the money to keep him out of pinstripes.

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by scoutingbook on Dec 20, 2007 7:26 PM EST reply actions

Re: You're not tired of Santana rumors yet, are yo

If the Twins wait till July the deal could be even worse. Hughes/Jaba/Kennedy could all do well in their first full season in the bigs. Buchholz/Lester/Ellsbury could also do very well. There is no way Ellsbury gets moved mid season if he is hitting well and makes the transition to the every day CF for the Sox.

Waiting till July would be very foolish. In fact, if the Twins do not move Johan before spring training, they will not get any of the players listed Hughes, Kennedy, Lester, or Ellsbury.

His trade value will never be higher than it is currently. Nobody will trade their top prospects to the Twins for 2 months of Johan Santana and the chance to sign him in the off season.

Time is ticking...

by SoxAcumen on Dec 20, 2007 10:49 PM EST up reply actions

Re: You're not tired of Santana rumors yet, are yo

I agree. The Red Sox have other issues that they need to address, and they will not wait to see what the team looks like in mid-july after trading for Santana to do this. The team needs to strengthen the bench-especially at the cater position, and they also need to make a move involving their 4 OFers. If the Twins to not make a move before spring training, the sox will move on.

by Schulz on Dec 21, 2007 2:38 PM EST up reply actions

You're not tired of Santana rumors yet, are you?

We all agree the Twins have to make some kind of deal before July right? Surely they won't just let him walk for 2 draft choices, nor will their really cheap owner pony up the required funds?

So a deal is imminent. Will NY come up with both Hughes and Kennedy in the same deal?

I think if we can get away with just Lester and Ellsbury in the trade, then its a good one for us. I really like Lowrie and would be more than happy with 2 more years of Coco at $5ml/per in CF.

by sydneysox on Dec 20, 2007 7:48 PM EST reply actions

weary

hmmmmmmm... lets see.... give up ellsbury and lester to get a guy that will cost you 20 mil per year for six years... oh, and he his numbers are down three years in a row... so we let ellsbury go, a guy who changes games with his speed, and lester who did perform in the post season. not to mention that IF santana had a lights out season he would win 19-20 games. lester will win 12-15. I think ellsbury will win 7 for us with speed, defense, and the bat. so- 20 mil less will net the same result AND give room to sign our players in the next few years AND not piss Beckett off.... seems like we should stand pat. However staying in to make the yanks give up hughes and kennedy is smart.

the difference between a yankee stadium hot dog and a fenway frank is that they dont sell yankee dogs in november anymore.

by fishfarmr on Dec 20, 2007 9:35 PM EST reply actions

Re: weary

I agree. The deal doesn't spin my motor either. Better to make an effort to improve the team in other ways now than to give away the best young talent to get a $28 million a year player. He probably would be a 20 game winner but we might be better off without him under the circumstances of any likely trade.

by Longsuffering on Dec 21, 2007 11:02 AM EST up reply actions

Re: You're not tired of Santana rumors yet, are yo

As much as I would be excited to see Santana come to Boston, I imagine the neutral fan would prefer to see him go to the Yankees. Imagine the post-season match-ups:

Beckett v. Santana
Schilling v. Pettite
Dice-K v. Wang
Buchholz v. Chamberlain

And if the Yankees overbid on him, so much the better for all of baseball.

by leberquesgue on Dec 21, 2007 2:27 PM EST reply actions

Re: You're not tired of Santana rumors yet, are yo

I'd rather see competitive playoff games against the Angels, Indians, and Detroit, and routs against New York. The Yankees can have toothless geezers pitch for them for all I care. It's not good for baseball if they field a complete rotation along with the best offense, unless you like uneven playing fields.

by 0157H7 on Dec 21, 2007 10:17 PM EST up reply actions

Re: You're not tired of Santana rumors yet, are yo

Everyone is overvaluing Ellsbury right now (that post-season sure helped), and I have to think that the way the Sox keep treating him is a calculated negotiating tactic, the same way the Yanks kept calling Hughes "untouchable" until, poof, he wasn't. He's a good player, but he's not THAT good. If Ellsbury goes, the Sox will laugh later.

And yes, $25M/a is overpaying, but there is no real limit to the payroll in Boston. None. No points are awarded for being thrifty. The Sox profit margins give them an essentially unlimited budget. So the cost is a non-factor.

Also, the value Santana adds to the team must be measured along with the value he does NOT add to the Yankees. For two division rivals who will almost certainly finish 1-2, this a real consideration. See also: Matsuzaka.

Put it this way: Santana or not, the Sox will almost certainly be playing the Yankees in the postseason next year. Santana will be on one of those two teams, and he will be making two (if not three) of those seven starts. Do you really want to let the Yankees have him, all because of freakin' Ellsbury??

The Sox have to do this deal, or they're opening the door to finish second and stay home again. Maybe it sucks, but it's necessary.

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by rokusan on Dec 22, 2007 6:51 PM EST reply actions