CP Results: Julio Lugo "Great Expectations Vol. II"

by Randy Booth on Dec 17, 2007 3:21 PM EST in Community Projections

Why were we so optimistic about Julio Lugo a year ago? Well, there was reason to be optimistic but it just didn't pan out correctly. Let's just say we really overshot in our average:

Actual Results: AVG: .237 OBP: .294 HR : 8 RBI: 73 R : 71 SB : 33 FP%: .968 Community Projection: AVG: .293 OBP: .360 HR : 12 RBI: 65 R : 98 SB : 24 FP%: .965

Average. Bad. OBP. Bad. Home runs. Close. Lugo did surprise in the RBI, stolen base and fielding percentage categories. Maybe our predicted line will be more suited for 2008. Nobody was really close for predicting Lugo's stats this past season.

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Lugo

Our predictions were based on the idea that Lugo would be the leadoff man for the entire season. Had this been the case, he would have had more runs (even w/ a .294 OBP) and less RBIs. The lineup shift accounted for this difference.

I really hope he can hit at least .275/.310/.390 (avg.obp./slg) next season. Is that too much to ask for our number 9 hitter?

By the time his contract is up, Lowrie will have been knocking at the big league door for a while, and I hope we don't trade him so we can try him out at SS.

by Schulz on Dec 17, 2007 4:54 PM EST reply actions

Some more info on Lugo

Dr Jeckyll
.286 / .350 / .395
Mr. Hyde
.190 / .241 / .306

Those are Lugo's 2007 home and away numbers (respectively). His career H/A split is much closer. Lugo's always hit well at Fenway. He was also better in the second half:
1st half: .197 / .270 / .298
2nd half: .280 / .322 / .406

Lugo also hit better in the 9th spot (07: .305/.353/.483; career: .305/.364/.433). So there's a case for some optimism regarding Lugo: he hits well at home, and he's had success in the 9 slot, where he'll be batting for the near future.

by 0157H7 on Dec 17, 2007 7:29 PM EST up reply actions