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Community Projection Results: Daisuke Matsuzaka

Over a year ago when Daisuke Matsuzaka was on the verge of signing with the Red Sox, I started a community projections thread for our Japanese superstar. A community projection is when OTM readers will predict how a player will perform in a number of categories. The goal is to be as accurate as possible to the real results.

Now, since we've got some time to kill this off-season, the results are now in:

Actual Results:
Innings Pitched:        204.2
Wins:                   15
Losses:                 12
Games Started:       32
Strikeouts:             201
Walks:         80
Earned Run Average:     4.40
WHIP:                   1.324

Community Projection:
Innings Pitched:        202
Wins:                   16
Losses:                 8
Games Started:  31
Strikeouts:             183
Walks:          68
Earned Run Average:     3.64
WHIP:                   1.20

As you can see, some stat categories were really close. Innings pitched, wins, games started, walks and WHIP were all fairly accurate. The only stat that was really off was ERA, and even that would have been close if Dice-K didn't struggle so much in September.

When I do another community projection for Dice-K later in the off-season, I'm curious to see how much these numbers will improve. They have to improve, right? If anyone has any suggestions for community projections this year, let me know and I'll consider them before the season starts.

0 recs | Comment 6 comments

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closest prediction
I like the idea of looking back at our predictions.  Beyond that, I know you're looking at the community projections, but I think you should also identify whose prediction came the closest.  In this case, it was forage:

Innings Pitched: 190
Wins: 15
Losses: 10
Game Starts: 31
Strikeouts: 174
Walks: 98
Earned Run Average: 4.23
WHIP: 1.34

by argo0 on Dec 15, 2007 9:20 AM EST   0 recs

Re: closest prediction
Good idea. I'll include that in the next projection results.

by Randy Booth on Dec 15, 2007 12:41 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Community Projection Results: Daisuke Matsuzak
I seem to remember that we made predictions for other players too.  Could we see a comparison on how accurate we were with them as well?

Also I think it would be interesting to predict the stats of the following players for 2008:

J.D. Drew
Dice-K
Veritek
Ellsbury

by Schulz on Dec 15, 2007 12:11 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Community Projection Results: Daisuke Matsuzak
We also did community projections for JD Drew, Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp and Jonathan Papelbon. Those results will be coming in the following days.

Those four you suggested will definitely have interesting results....

by Randy Booth on Dec 15, 2007 12:40 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Did we do PedROYa too?
Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Dec 15, 2007 12:43 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Did we do PedROYa too?
Unfortunately, we did not. Unless I completely missed it somehow when I re-searched OTM...

by Randy Booth on Dec 15, 2007 1:09 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

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