ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

by Allen Chace on Oct 15, 2007 11:35 PM EDT in Game Stories Comment 125 comments

'Tek shows signs of life with a 2-run HR in the 7th inning.
(Getty Images/Elsa)

Not sure whether this loss is easier to take than Game 2. I felt like, entering, that we had the pitching matchup.

A tip of the cap to Jake Westbrook, who aside from the aforedisplayed HR, pitched about as well as a GB pitcher who doesn't K a lot of batters can pitch. In addition, Jensen Lewis and Rafael Betancourt were solid for Cleveland.

The strike zone tonight was absolutely comical. It probably ended up evening out in terms of which teams it benefited, but it was absolutely unpredictable. sdkramer provided a graphic representation of the strike zone during the GT.

The 'pen? Outstanding. I'm not sure I could describe it well enough, but they were phenomenal. Timlin did his usual thing, Oki's stuff looked good, and MDC blew 95 MPH FB after 95 MPH FB in striking out the last two Indians in the 8th.

Other positives? Um, did I mention 'Tek? Also, no one wet themselves on national television, so that has to be considered a positive.

On the Beckett issue. I like Tito taking the hard line on this. I think if he's well enough to throw tomorrow it gives us an excellent chance to win, but throwing Wake tomorrow and Beckett against C.C. gives us the best chance of winning both of the next two.

I gave my thoughts in the game thread. My optimism is waning a little bit. I'm afraid that everyone but DP (agonizingly aggressive most of the series thusfar) will be sitting back and waiting for walks that will never come from Byrd. This is a guy who has unspectacular stuff and throws strikes. Get yourself a favorable count if possible, but don't sit and wait.

However, I have some optimism. It's not like our team hired Dusty Baker or anything.

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No problem

First off, Diasuke was pretty solid, I thought. He may not get much confidence from this outing, but let's face it, if Cabrera's RBI single veers a foot or two to the right, it's a classic inning-ending DP, and we're all talking about Varitek's dramatic 2-run game-tying HR. They got some serious bounces and we surely didn't. Bound to even out.

Coco was pretty bad but otherwise I didn't see any Sox hitters who looked lost up there. Westbrook pitched well by his standard, which means he's bound to pitch poorly in the return game, right? We need to win tomorrow or the pressure will really build, but there are a handful of guys who've been down 3-0 on this team. Nothing's over.

by el fuego on Oct 16, 2007 12:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: No problem

Don't get me wrong (this isn't addressed to you, el fuego, in particular):

I love this attitude, even if at the moment I'm unable to share it. If anyone else here is also of the Devil may care and/or a coupla bounces this way attitude, I sure hope I don't ruin that.

Now, definitely agreed, el. Coco looked bad up there, and I do think we're overdue for an Ellsbury start. It's not as if Coco PR/Defensive replacement wouldn't be just as big a boost as the reverse. Time to let Yagoboy see his first postseason AB(s).

by Allen Chace on Oct 16, 2007 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: No problem

I couldn't watch the whole thing, but I did think that we were unlucky in many respects. How many times have you seen a base-runner get hit by a ball? Not many. (Yes is was Ortiz's error.) Also, that strike zone was ludicrous. I think we'll bounce back and I just always feel good when Wake is on the mound. No logical reason for it, I just do.

You can take the boy outta Boston, but you can't take the Boston outta the boy.

by B Cap on Oct 16, 2007 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: No problem

Yes, Ellsbury must play. Surely the Red Sox medical staff can find something wrong with either Coco or Drew ...

by dave in CT on Oct 16, 2007 7:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: No problem

Francona's calling card is not panicking, even if it seems like he's holding on to status quo too long. But I think preaching the forget-yesterday/move-on attitude is bound to help them not get too caught up in a couple down days. I suppose it may be time to go with Ellsbury for some energy, perhaps over Drew -- but it's not going to happen. Ah well,... Coco almost hit a walkoff homer Saturday... maybe the next one gets out.

If the DO win tonight, if Wake rides in to the rescue, things are suddenly looking very good again.

by el fuego on Oct 16, 2007 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: No problem

An article I'd read earlier today quoted Tito as saying he didn't think one loss meant that he should make "wholesale" changes.

Since when is sitting someone - ONE GUY - who's slumping / not performing a "wholesale" change to the lineup?

If anything, it shakes things up just enough, in my opinion.

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Some thoughts... looking ahead a bit.

The Sox can pull this off. A 2-1 lead is erased with just 1 win, and then it's a best of 3, with the last 2 games at Fenway.

Now - I've just watched the end of the Rockies/DBacks series.... I can tell you right now, whoever wins this ALCS, be it the Sox (YEAH!) or the Indians, had better not be expecting a cake walk.

The Rockies are the real deal. An team ERA of less than 2.0! A bullpen ERA of less than 1.0! And these are hitting when it counts, and making plays in the field. Tulowitzki at short is phenomenal. Add to that the fact that they now have 8 days to rest and prepare for Game 1 of the Series. This is a team that's going to be ready.

Now, back to game 4 of the ALCS: COME ON, WAKE!

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 1:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Some thoughts... looking ahead a bit.

Both we and the Indians better be hoping that the 8 days off does a considerable job of cooling them down.

by Allen Chace on Oct 16, 2007 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Some thoughts... looking ahead a bit.

Yeah, that 8-day layoff could help the Rox, or it could allow some rust to accumulate.

But man, they have a potential (and probable) MVP (Holliday) and a potential RoY (Tulowitzki)... but the thing about the Rox is that there are so few weak links in them. Tonight, they bring in Seth ("Who?") Smith to pinch hit. He ends up blooping a single to left, 2 runs score, they take the lead and never looked back. I'm completely amazed at their turnaround... mid-season, they were excited to be over .500 ... now they're world beaters.

So yeah, it'll be interesting to see how that 8 days off works - either for them or against.

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 2:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes but....

They did all their postseason damage against the Phillies and D-Backs, the latter of which had fewer runs for than against during the entire regular season. I like our, or Cleveland's chances.

You can take the boy outta Boston, but you can't take the Boston outta the boy.

by B Cap on Oct 16, 2007 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Yes but....

Agreed. While I think the AL team will win, I'd hate to see the Rockies (The God Squad) win the WS.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 16, 2007 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Yes but....

Is that article from "The Onion" ?

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Yes but....

Nope, The Nation.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 17, 2007 7:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

A few days ago I commented that I only saw Beckett pitching in Gm4 if we were 1-2 down. Guess what.

I think there are a number of other things that move towards pitching Beckett tonight - he only threw 80 pitches in game 1 and I (personally) would rather be at 2-2 with a weaker pithing line-up (if you can call Schill, Dice-K, Beckett weak!) than 1-3 with those same pitchers with a slightly better match-up to win all three.

Of course, Wake might be unhittable, and we get there anyway. But he might not be. It's a bit of a coin-toss. Will we win if he get's shelled. Well, Byrd is very hittable - that's for sure.

However, I would start with Wake, despite my earlier 1-2 comment. Why? Because the bull-pen has, on the whole, been worked hard the last two nights and if we can bounce ahead, Wake could get us through 7 and give them a much-needed rest.

Go Sox!

Jez

by CountyJez on Oct 16, 2007 5:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Also, we might get a favorable wind for Wake, and when he's been on this year, he's been unhittable. Plus, Byrd fits badly with our lineup. Throwing in the strike zone is a good way to get shelled. I think we'll scare him out of the strike zone and then the walks will pile up. The moment he goes back...bam! 2 run/ 3 run homers. MMmmmmmm..chicken! We just have to wait for these little babies to hatch and then it's off to the BBQ!

You can take the boy outta Boston, but you can't take the Boston outta the boy.

by B Cap on Oct 16, 2007 7:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

That of course assumes there's a consistent strike zone.

by sdkramer.otm on Oct 16, 2007 8:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

"Plus, Byrd fits badly with our lineup. Throwing in the strike zone is a good way to get shelled."

It's the only way to get shelled, unless I'm missing something. Firing a bunch of pitches to the backstop is not how you get shelled.

"I think we'll scare him out of the strike zone and then the walks will pile up."

You're not basing your hope in reality here. Obviously we've seen Sabathia veer from the norm, but check out Byrd's game-by-game walk total.

4 walks or more: zero times.
3 walks: 1 time.
2 walks: 8 times.
1 walk: 11 times.
0 walks: 12 times.

Look, I agree that the guy is vulnerable. Obviously. But wishing for a pile of walks is probably a waste of time.

You should start wishing for the Sox to give Ellsbury a chance, and for the rest of the lineup to hit the ball hard.

by tabler84 from LGT on Oct 16, 2007 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Tabler...I notice you forgot to quote my chicken reference...as in "don't count your chickens..."
Yeah, I want JD to produce, but Ellsbury would be a much better replacement on this team right now. I think we've gotten to the point where we are just waiting for our guy to do worse than yours. Not a great position to be in. Where are the bats?!?

You can take the boy outta Boston, but you can't take the Boston outta the boy.

by B Cap on Oct 16, 2007 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

I still think if we're using Ellsbury to replace ANYONE in the lineup, it should be Coco. Am I just completely alone on this?

by Allen Chace on Oct 16, 2007 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Divisional Series
Drew OBP .182, SLG .182, AVG .182
Crisp OBP .273, SLG .200, AVG .200

Championship Series
Drew OBP .273, SLG .273, AVG .273
Crisp OBP .250, SLG .333, AVG .250

It looks like a wash to me. And with that I'd have to keep Coco since he's obviously the better fielder.

Course this is probably prejudiced by my hatred of Drew.

by sdkramer.otm on Oct 16, 2007 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Why not Drew? As bad as Coco has been, Drew's batting has been worse, if I'm not mistaken.

by dave in CT on Oct 16, 2007 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with Allen

Coco is terrible at the plate.

But I'd be shocked if Tito actually starts Ellsbury.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Oct 16, 2007 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I'm with Allen

I think there's no doubt that ellsbury will make an appearance tonight as a pinch runner/sub for Mirabelli, but not as a starter. Let's hope it's early in the game.

by dave in CT on Oct 16, 2007 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sox' hitters v. Byrd:

The players on Boston's roster have hit a combined .326 AVG/.352 OBP/.547 SLG against Byrd.

The Best:
Kielty (30 AB) .333/.355/.800 (4 HR 8 RBI)
Lowell (20 AB) .400/.400/.700 (1 HR 4 RBI)
Ortiz (26 AB) .308/.333/.538 (2 HR 6 RBI)
Crisp (11 AB) .455/.538/.545
Varitek (18 AB) .389/.389/.611 (1 HR 2 RBI)
Lugo (10 AB) .400/.400/.500

Pedroia was 2 for 3 in his only ABs v. Byrd, and Mirabelli 2 for 2 with a double.

The Worst:
Youkilis (9 AB) .111/.111/.111
Ramirez (14 AB) .143/.143/.429 (1 HR 2 RBI)
Drew (10 AB) .200/.200/.200 (3 RBI)

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 16, 2007 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really don't want Wake

to start G4.

We. Want. Beckett.

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Oct 16, 2007 6:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What do you do if

Wake starts and he implodes in the second inning? Send in Lester? Tavarez? Snyder (is he even on the roster?)?

by dave in CT on Oct 16, 2007 7:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Remember people, it is all about emotional ups and downs at this critical point. What can management do for game 4 that will set the stage for the most likely emotional high for the Sox. That what this is all about now, IMHO, not necessarily the best baseball mechanics!

by NG on Oct 16, 2007 7:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

I'm still not convinced emotions are our ally in this situation. I'd rather have our guys going up there, cold, emotionless, grinding out ABs like they have all season. Save the emotion for the victories (or, god forbid, any more defeats).

by Allen Chace on Oct 16, 2007 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Two points of disagreement. First, remember 2004, and you will know the power of emotion!

Second, I disagree that this team hits cold, emotionless, grinding out ABs like they have all season, and I have often thought it was an emotionally sensitive team. In other words, when the did well, it usually was due to an emotional high that day!

by NG on Oct 16, 2007 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wake will pitch.

But will the hitters hit?

That's the bigger concern that I have at this point. Doesn't matter if Wake is at the top of his game or not - if he gets no run support, then it's going to be a long night.

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 11:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Wake will pitch.

Agree...see therein lies the problem. We are back to making average pitchers look like Cy Young. Jake Westbrook is an average pitcher who schooled us.

by cblesz on Oct 16, 2007 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Wake will pitch.

Between 2004 and 2006, only Johan Santana, Kenny Rogers and Jon Garland had more victories in the American League than Westbrook's 44 wins. I know there are more sophisticated methods for evaluating a pitcher, but I though it should be noted that Westbrook has been pitching pretty well at the major league level for awhile and didn't just fall off the turnip truck.

This year he has been battling injuries and has pitched quite well in the second half of the season. Jake Westbrook flies under the radar because he's not a flashy strikeout pitcher and because he plays for the Indians.

Bottom line - you didn't just get beaten by an average pitcher.

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeisterLGT on Oct 16, 2007 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Wake will pitch.

I disagree...Jake Westbrook is now nothing more than an average pitcher....prove me wrong.

by cblesz on Oct 16, 2007 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Wake will pitch.

He pitched well in the 2nd half? Are we talking about the same Jake Westbrook?

His record between July 4 and September 29 (where he figured in the decision) was 5 wins and 6 losses in 17 appearances. He went 8 innings only once, and most of his appearances were 5 or 6 innings.

Now, granted, I haven't pulled in all the stats (Ks, BBs, etc.) but that record doesn't look like anyone who's above average.

I tip my hat to him in Game 3 - he got the win and earned it, by keeping the ball down and getting the Sox hitters to chase stuff. Perhaps the problem last night for the Sox hitters was impatience... ?

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Westbrook "average"???

It's always fun to see how everyone frames these discussions. Is the argument A or B?

A: "Westbrook is average and beat the Red Sox - therefore, the performance does reflect on the Red Sox hitters as being poor" (Maybe it can improve?)

B: "Westbrook is a very good pitcher and beat the Red Sox - therefore, the performance does not reflect on the overall abilities of Red Sox hitters" (It's more likely to improve, especially against Byrd.)

As Tribe fans, we are not surprised to see Westbrook pitch like he did last night. He has shown that he can do it in the regular season. Did he regularly pitch well throughout this past season? No, but he was hampered by injuries. Has he shown that he can pitch like he did last night? Yes, especially in August.
Consider
Pre ASB: 6.27 ERA
Post ASB: 3.44 ERA

Wins is a terrible stat to use in this case, given the horrid hitting by the Indians in July/August. CC pitched 10 straight games when he gave up 2 or fewer runs between July and August. He won just 4 of them. Several losses for Westbrook should have been wins, in fact.

I'll grant you that Westbrook has not shown the ability to pitch like that in a pressure situation (game 3 in the Bronx), but he is also a far better pitcher at home. Therefore, to classify Westbrook - pitching at Jacobs Field - as an "average" pitcher is incorrectly assessing the situation.

Maybe the Red Sox will start to realize this fact and start taking the Indians seriously. As a Tribe fan, I hope they continue to underestimate them; I have the utmost respect for what the Red Sox have done and can do, and do not want to see them bring their "A" game.

by Spidey on Oct 16, 2007 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Westbrook "average"???

If the "average" comments were coming prior to Westbrook's appearance in Game 3, then you'd have a valid point about the Sox not taking the Tribe seriously.

But this is after the fact, and of course, he got the win, and did what needed to be done - no one that I can see is arguing that.

I think it's probably more appropriate to say that his pitching IMPROVED since the ASB, but it's nothing to write home about. Since when is a W-L record not indicative of a pitcher's performance? As I saw it, most of his outings were 5 and 6 innings long... and in spite of that, he did have a good August (record wise) and looks as though he was lagging in both July and September. All I know is the numbers I'm reading - any more than that would get into the psyche of the guy, and I'm far from qualified for that. I still say that he's average, and fair play to him, he pitched well last night, and the result was that the Sox were below average.
Bottom line: Indians win. Sox regroup.
That's what makes this a great game, we get to do it again tonight, instead of waiting a week like they do in football.

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Westbrook "average"???

Amen to that. That's what makes this game so great at the playoffs. Too bad the National League couldn't enjoy what we have.

by Spidey on Oct 16, 2007 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Wake will pitch.

He was on. It happens occasionally.

by el fuego on Oct 16, 2007 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Wake will pitch.

Kudos. I'm probably equally worried about a Wake-stinker and the Sox bats just sitting back and waiting for the no walks.

by Allen Chace on Oct 16, 2007 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

This really sucks guys. But I have to get it off my chest, Coco Crisp truley sucks hitting wise please start Elisbury tonight.

AS FOR YOU PIECE OF SHIT DICE-K you were paid too much to not go 5 innings yet again HORRIBLE HORRIBLE signing. Now as SoxfaninNYC gets ready for game 4 Tim Wakefield who stinks determines our season.

If he does not win today do not resign him and Doug please. Either way our future is very bright it's just a shame that we are getting out classed by Cleveland who we are better then. Can we score some runs please?

BELIEVE IN BOSTON!

by BelieveinBoston19 on Oct 16, 2007 1:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

To take a pager from another thread

I think this is Wakefield's last year "irregardless". :)

by sdkramer.otm on Oct 16, 2007 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Ah, but you have to admire Wakefield's "resiliency."

by tabler84 from LGT on Oct 16, 2007 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Really? Are you taking money on that?

by el fuego on Oct 16, 2007 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Didn't realize his option was for only 4. He's worth that.

by sdkramer.otm on Oct 16, 2007 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

I can't flame a fellow Sox fan right now, but your assessment of Matsuzaka is totally unrealistic. He's signed for 6 years, and the first one is bound to be full of adjustments. The guy's completely worn out. What do you expect? In 2012 if he still can't get out of the 5th then you can rant away, but in many ways Daisuke is very much a rookie.

And as I said, 6 ks in 4IP, and one grounder that would've ended the 5th handily had it been two feet to the right. I thought he did pretty well.

by el fuego on Oct 16, 2007 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Worst ump'ed game I've seen in awhile

That was the worst umpired game I've seen in awhile. The strike zone was ludicrously inconsistent.

Dice-K was squeezed out of the gate, and I think he got the impression that it would be a tight strike zone for the game. Nothing Matsuzaka threw on the left edge of the plate was called a strike.

Meanwhile, Jake Westbrook benefited from some outright blown calls in crucial situations. The 3-0 so-called-strike to Manny could have changed the game; it was as inside as it gets without beaning the batter. Simply shameful.

That doesn't change the fact that the Sox hammered everything Westbrook threw into the dirt, but there were blown calls that directly impacted the outcome.

In the end, the number of blown calls favoring each side might have been even, but I feel as though the Indians benefited far more in game-changing situations.

See that man in black? He likes Jake Westbrook. A lot.
(Globe Staff Photo / Jim Davis)

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Oct 16, 2007 1:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Worst ump'ed game I've seen in awhile

True enough, SD.

I guess the point I was trying to make was more about the amount of calls for either side.

I do agree, we had some BS calls at some of the absolute worst moments called on us.

Still doesn't change the fact that Westbrook pitched a helluva game.

by Allen Chace on Oct 16, 2007 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Worst ump'ed game I've seen in awhile

What did I read this morning (or hear on ESPN?) that the Sox had 14 ground-outs. And of course, the DPs...

That comes from keeping the ball down, and making guys golf or fish.

Now, add to that an ever-changing strike zone, and there you go: disaster.

I still wonder (and does anyone here know?) what happened to the overhead camera at the plate? Did the umpires union get it removed? It's been a while - more than a year or two, I'd say, since I've seen it used.

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Worst ump'ed game I've seen in awhile

Correction: 16 ground-outs, 5 fly balls.

With 3 BBs and 2 Ks, I wouldn't describe his performance as overpowering, but he got the results: batters making outs.

That's gotta change for the Sox, and soon.

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Worst ump'ed game I've seen in awhile

SD,

Please, go back and watch the Manny at bat you're referring to. Of the there pitches called balls, please give an honest assessment of how many were actually strikes. The answer, on the low end, is one.

by tabler84 from LGT on Oct 16, 2007 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another newbie question

Forgive my newbie-ness once again but I'm curious about something. If Beckett were to start tonight and then go all Chien-Ming Wang on us needing to be lifted in the 2nd inning or something, couldn't Wakefield then come in and theoretically pitch a full game? If so, what would the repercussions of that be for Beckett? Would he still have to wait till a Game 7 to pitch again?

If so, then it seems to me that pitching Beckett tonight would be an enormous gamble, because if he doesn't pan out then you'd essentially be starting Wakefield with a deficit and you'd also then be hoping that Wakefield could pull it out and that Shilling and Dice-K could get you past Sabathia and Carmona to a Game 7 where Beckett could finally pitch again. Am I wrong on any of that?

by WildYams on Oct 16, 2007 2:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Must say that the games have been great. I am a Cleveland fan, but I enjoy the game of baseball more than anything. The zone was maddeningly inconsistant for both teams.

Regardless of who makes it to the WS, I think the ALCS will outshine it. The Rockies are bound to cool down. After all ....we are watching the two best teams play right now. Best of Luck to all Socks fans, go Tribe and enjoy the great games.

by treetopflyer72 on Oct 16, 2007 2:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Hey guys. Visiting Mariner fan.

I just wanted to jump in on the Beckett thing.
Look at it this way: it's a matter of matchups, not necessity. This is not an elimination game tonight.

Look at the two scenarios (the winner/my favorite is 3rd in each row):
Scenario 1 - Beckett on Normal Rest
Beckett-Sabathia-Boston
Schilling-Carmona-Cleveland
Matsuzaka-Westbrook-Cleveland
Wakefield-Byrd-?
Beckett-Sabathia-Boston
Schilling-Carmona-Cleveland
Matsuzaka-Westbrook-?

In this scenario, the burdon is put on the Sox offense toget it done against Byrd. I'll take that matchup. Then it comes down to Matsuzaka Westbrook in game 7. Again, the burdon is on the offense. It'd be a good game.

Scenario 2 - Beckett on short rest
Beckett-Sabathia-Boston
Schilling-Carmona-Cleveland
Matsuzaka-Westbrook-Cleveland
Beckett-Byrd-Boston
Schilling-Sabathia-Cleveland
Matsuzaka-Carmona-Cleveland
Beckett-Westbrook-Boston (not played)

The important thing here is that there are less questionable matchups, and I don't think there would be a game 7. Ths scenario seriously shifts the odds to Cleveland.

by azed on Oct 16, 2007 2:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Simple but effective analysis. Nice job azed. I agree that the first set up is a much better match pitching-wise than sending Beckett in early.

You can take the boy outta Boston, but you can't take the Boston outta the boy.

by B Cap on Oct 16, 2007 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

This is essentially what I was saying above although in the second scenario you get the added wrinkle that if Beckett isn't able to perform tonight on short rest then you instead get Wakefield-Byrd tonight but presumably you're staking Byrd to a couple run lead to boot. I think the possibility that the Sox will be down 3-1 after tonight with Beckett and Shilling going against CC and Carmona is worth risking Wakefield starting tonight. If Wakefield happens to be on tonight and the bats come to life, then you're at 2-2 and you really have to like the Sox's chances, but if you go with Beckett tonight and he can't get it done then you've probably lost the series.

by WildYams on Oct 16, 2007 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Exactly.

I just want to add one thing to this. Red Sox fans need to take the stand now that if the Red Sox lose tonight, Terry Francona DID THE RIGHT THING. When the cries come for him to be fired for this (they will if the Sox lose),they are shot down preemptively. I'd hate to see another good manager run off to the NL.

by azed on Oct 16, 2007 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Wake may be awful tonight, and they may bring in Lester to relieve him and he too could be awful; but as I said before, being down 3-1 with Beckett going in Game 5 is a lot better than being down 3-1 with Shilling going against Sabathia in Cleveland and then Dice-K going against Carmona in Game 6.

by WildYams on Oct 16, 2007 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

I agree with this. I was originally thinking we should pitch beckett now but in thinking it over, I'd rather use Beckett in game 5 ... if beckett failed in game 4 on short rest, it would be a devastating blow ... on the other hand, if Wake can take us to victory, it would be a huge uplift to the whole team and then we have beckett pitching with more rest and less pressure. And should wake lose, then we have our best pitcher in the must-win game.

Gotta support Francona on this one.

by dave in CT on Oct 16, 2007 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

The problem I have with your analysis is that you're assuming Dice K v. Westbrook is a toss-up. Dice hasn't shown us much of anything for a month and a half, and Westbrook completely shut us down last night, pitching better than either Sabathia or Carmona. I'd say the odds greatly favor Cleveland in that Game 7 matchup. Pitching Beckett twice more makes us the favorite in two of the remaining four games, and then we'd need to win one of the two games started by our "other" pitchers (as opposed to needing to win 2 of 3 starts by our "other" pitchers).

And I couldn't see Tito getting run out of town by the fans. This is not a Grady Little type scenario, where the FO was already fed up with the manager and fan sentiment just pushed it over the edge. Tito seems to enjoy the support of the FO.

Manny Ramirez is a bad man

by tommy.otm on Oct 16, 2007 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

He gave us 8 innings of 2 run ball to take the division.

You can take the boy outta Boston, but you can't take the Boston outta the boy.

by B Cap on Oct 16, 2007 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Westbrook's pitching performance last night might have ended up differently if that game was in Fenway. Ortiz might have had two home runs for one thing. But the main issue that Beckett tonight is in no way a guaranteed win going on that short rest. Dice-K vs. Westbrook in Game 7 may favor Cleveland (I don't necessarily think so, but for the sake of argument let's say it does), but at least the Red Sox would be in a Game 7 to fight it out. You pitch Beckett tonight and he loses and you can pretty much guarantee that the team wouldn't make it to a Game 7.

by WildYams on Oct 16, 2007 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The "secret" that really isn't...

From MLB.com:

Byrd's way is pretty obvious. This is a pitcher who walked 1.31 batters per nine innings, the lowest in the American League, and gave up 11.18 hits per nine innings, the highest in the league.

Boston hitters: Are you paying attention here?

Get on this guy early!

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 5:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Dice-K a bust? Hardly.

I agree with you though, the Sox better score a lot of runs if they want to still have a chance in this series

"Why not us?"

by reversecursing on Oct 16, 2007 7:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

I would have liked to see the sentiment expressed a little bit more eloquently however.

Um Game 4 Thread anyone?

by sdkramer.otm on Oct 16, 2007 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Gee, racism, homophobia... you forgot to make fun of the disabled.

by el fuego on Oct 16, 2007 8:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

by BelieveinBoston19 on Oct 16, 2007 8:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Wow. What was that, eight pitches? Great gameplan, guys...weak, weak, weak.

by cblesz on Oct 16, 2007 8:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Go Sox.!!

Mirabelli sux...

by MassGal on Oct 16, 2007 8:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's happening again

No one except Manny can do anything.

by soxaholic on Oct 16, 2007 8:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Coco sucks he has to be benched. Jacoby time.

by BelieveinBoston19 on Oct 16, 2007 8:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Looking solid JD and Coco. Freaking Francona is an ass....why is Ellsbury not in there instead of these two losers?

by cblesz on Oct 16, 2007 8:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

I am just waiting for someone on this board to tell me Paul Byrd is a great pitcher. C'mon, you know one of you wants to make an excuse. Does Magadan even come up with a plan for these guys?

by cblesz on Oct 16, 2007 8:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Wakefield looks strong...but we have a problem hitting the ball against Paul f'ing Byrd.

by cblesz on Oct 16, 2007 8:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wake actually does look great

by soxaholic on Oct 16, 2007 8:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Wake actually does look great

He does...a little generous on that third strike to Blake...but we have to score some runs for him...this offense is embarrassing...

by cblesz on Oct 16, 2007 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

At least Belli saw some pitches

by soxaholic on Oct 16, 2007 8:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can't stand to watch this

by soxaholic on Oct 16, 2007 9:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: I can't stand to watch this

I can't stand to listen to it; so turning volume off but I have confidence in the Sox tonight.

by MassGal on Oct 16, 2007 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Finally

Dustin pokes one through.

by soxaholic on Oct 16, 2007 9:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Did I just see

Dustin Pedroia actually get a hit?!

by A Red Sox Fan in Hawaii on Oct 16, 2007 9:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

and Youk rips one

OK here we go.

by soxaholic on Oct 16, 2007 9:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This would be a GREAT time...

...for Papi to go yard...

by A Red Sox Fan in Hawaii on Oct 16, 2007 9:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: This would be a GREAT time...

I'll second that. He's my man. I want him to ROCK IT!

by 3000miles on Oct 16, 2007 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

by soxaholic on Oct 16, 2007 9:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Weak...again I say very weak. They are going to waste Wakefield pitching well.

by cblesz on Oct 16, 2007 9:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

This is brutal. Games over.

by BelieveinBoston19 on Oct 16, 2007 9:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

What game are you watching? ;^)

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

WHERE'S YAZ?

THE SOX NEED YAZ!

Sorry - flashbacks.

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: WHERE'S YAZ?

We don't need Yaz, we just need a walk, single and a double in consecutive ab's. We'll get chances against Byrd so I'm not too worried at this stage. And obviously the Red Sox management knows heaps more than I do because I would've brought Beckett back for game 4.

by sydneysox on Oct 16, 2007 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A DP

would be lovely, esp after last night's performance.

by A Red Sox Fan in Hawaii on Oct 16, 2007 9:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tim is dealing

by soxaholic on Oct 16, 2007 9:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Tim is dealing

I agree. 8^)

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wake's got it going.

5 Ks in 2.1 innings!

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Very impressive from Wakefield

by soxaholic on Oct 16, 2007 9:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

4 runs will do it. Wake is looking like its the start of the season. Remember that? he had a like a 1.70 ERA through the 6 games or so. It'll be interesting to see if they adjust now that he's been through the order once.

by sydneysox on Oct 16, 2007 9:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

I'd have to agree - this is quickly shaping up to be a battle of "who makes the first mistake" from the mound.

Go get 'em, Wake!

Sox needs some offensive help, now!

I suppose that Tito's doesn't want to make "wholesale changes" just to win a game.

BRING IN ELLSBURY, TITO! ELLSBURY!

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. FIRE MAGGEDEN CLAP CLAP.

by BelieveinBoston19 on Oct 16, 2007 9:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

stop being a dick.

by sdkramer.otm on Oct 16, 2007 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

HITS! GET SOME HITS!

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: HITS! GET SOME HITS!

Sheesh.

Maybe a tennis racket would help.

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, there's mistake no. 1

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Well, there's mistake no. 1

Casey the K gets a solo.

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Well, there's mistake no. 1

You have to expect it with Wake. We need some run support. Today.

by 3000miles on Oct 16, 2007 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Well, there's mistake no. 1

Yeah, been asking for that in the last eleventy-three posts!

ELLSBURY!

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

@$#$%@#%T@!

by A Red Sox Fan in Hawaii on Oct 16, 2007 9:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

bugger...

by sydneysox on Oct 16, 2007 9:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

They're all swinging UP at the knuckler.

Not good.

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rats

wtf.

OK. Must breathe. Only one run so far.

this is not my dot com (okay, maybe it is.)

by dmauer on Oct 16, 2007 9:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How does he know it hit him?

They're supposed to make an effort to get out of the way, BLUE! That guy had 37 seconds!

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Geez, now its all going pear-shaped...

by sydneysox on Oct 16, 2007 9:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

I got a bad feeling here...

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

BC14, I was wondering about that? Isn't Wake throwing like 50mph, surely you've got about 4 seconds to move..

by sydneysox on Oct 16, 2007 9:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

He just stood there - that's bogus.

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

(&S&*^#%^@

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: (&S&*^#%^@

3 chances to catch it.

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

This is always my concern with Wake, once you get another look or two at him I think most good hitters can sort out what needs to be done to be successful.

by sydneysox on Oct 16, 2007 9:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gotta shut this down, pronto.

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You could see that coming...

...after Youk flubbed the catch.

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

SHUT EM DOWN!

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 9:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

They're not getting used to him

he's pitching too high. Give him a minute to calm down, and they'll be swinging at air again.

this is not my dot com (okay, maybe it is.)

by dmauer on Oct 16, 2007 9:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: They're not getting used to him

Well, I can't really see it. I'm at work and just following the feed on the gameday...

by sydneysox on Oct 16, 2007 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay,

maybe not...

this is not my dot com (okay, maybe it is.)

by dmauer on Oct 16, 2007 10:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

crap crappity crap crap

OK. Well... we've come back from 6-0 before... [sound of me switching from beer to whisky]

this is not my dot com (okay, maybe it is.)

by dmauer on Oct 16, 2007 10:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: crap crappity crap crap

There's a Game 4 thread, you guys.

BC14

by BC14 on Oct 16, 2007 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: ALCS Game III: Sox down, 2-1, but not out.

Hmmmm, now we are in deep shit. Here's how I see it. If we can somehow manage to win game 5, then its back home and who knows. The issue is that there is no production from 6-9 in the order. If I were an opposing manager, you are almost compelled to load the bases just to pitch to batters 6-9 at this stage.

by sydneysox on Oct 16, 2007 11:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs