Question of the Day, 9 January 2007.

by Allen Chace on Jan 9, 2007 1:57 AM EST in Open Thread Comment 16 comments

Today's question is going to require some thought. What would be the best and most realistic return on a trade involving top prospect Jacoby Ellsbury? This is hypothetical, so assume that Coco returns to his Cleveland numbers rather than what we saw last season.

Be specific. What team would we be trading Ellsbury to, and how many players would he bring back? Remember that other GMs will want to stress his weaknesses (mainly a lack of power) rather than his strengths (defense, range, patience at the plate, speed). Be as creative as you like: If you want a specific player, but the trade may require a sweetener like Brandon Moss or Mark Wagner, go ahead and include them. Supreme bragging rights to the trade that seems to make the most sense for both teams involved*.

Resources about Ellsbury:
The Baseball Cube
SoxProspects.com
MilB Interview

Teams who probably won't be interested: Cleveland Indians, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, New York Mets

*Subjective criteria, I know.

The poll.

Poll

He probably won't be traded, when does he debut in the bigs?

Mid-season, 2007

3 votes

September 2007

15 votes

Wins the starting job in 2008

6 votes

He will be traded to the Marlins for an aging veteran and a promising young pitcher. He will out-peform both.

4 votes

28 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 16 comments

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Comments

Re: Question of the Day, 9 January 2007.

What about Oakland?

The A's value defensive ability above many MLB teams. Ellsbury profiles reasonably similary to their current CF Mark Kotsay, though with more speed and better on-base ability (and a weaker arm). Kotsay is contracted through the 2008 season, which hypothetically would give Ellsbury time to bed in.

Ellsbury is known as perhaps the best defensive CF in the minors. He could clearly play at a major league level now, as a late inning defensive replacement and pinch runner.

What would we get from Billy Beane in return? Perhaps a pitcher with a hefty contract. No obvious candidates, though perhaps Harden would be available for the right package of prospects.

Having said all that, I don't like this game! Please keep Ellsbury.

Vote for Pedroia

by britsoxfan on Jan 9, 2007 8:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Question of the Day, 9 January 2007.

I have to say that I don't think Ellsbury nets us much of anything alone. The kid is talented, no doubt, but you generally don't score a Major League upgrade by trading one, highly-rated prospect. Ellsbury would have to be the complete package to even be considered in a 1-for-1 trade.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jan 9, 2007 9:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Possibilities

Looking at the whole picture is rather daunting without doing some major homework, so I'll focus on position players in this post. Since we're talking about trading a prospect for one or more players, I'll avoid offering Ellsbury in a package for even higher-rated talent.

In some cases it may seem like I'm giving up too much for the targeted player, but I'm trying to be realistic. "If both sides feel like they're giving up too much, you know you've struck a fair deal."

Most of this off-the-cuff, so be kind. :-P

Potential Ellsbury deals:
(interchange Buchholz w/ Bowden and Johnson w/ Masterson if you wish)

Adam LaRoche to BOS
Ellsbury, K. Johnson, E. Martinez to ATL
(Move Youk to 3B, flip Lowell for prospect(s))

M. Teixeira to BOS
Buchholz, Ellsbury, Hinske, PTBLN to TEX
(Teixeira had a down year, so he may be available, but he still won't come cheap. Youk to 3B and flip Lowell for prospect(s).)

H. Blaylock to BOS
Lowell, Ellsbury, PTBLN to TEX
(I'm not sure I even LIKE Blaylock, but it's an option.)

Bobby Jenks to BOS
Ellsbury, E. Martinez, B. Moss to CWS
(No way this deal happens. Jenks is still really cheap, isn't he?)

Now is not the right time to trade Ellsbury. I think his pre-MLB value will peak in another year.

non-Ellsbury trades:
(for different players)

M. Holliday to BOS
W. Pena, E. Martinez, K. Johnson to COL
(Worth a shot, right? I might even dangle ONE of Buchholz or Bowden for Holliday. You have to like what COL did this offseason w/ the Jennings-to-'Stros trade.)

M. Holliday, G. Atkins to BOS
W. Pena, M. Lowell, Hinske, Buchholz, E. Martinez, Pauley + CASH to COL
(And COL probably still wouldn't make this deal.)

B. Hawpe to BOS
B. Moss, E. Martinez, K. Johnson to COL
(Cheaper than Holliday. What do you guys think of Hawpe? Up & coming, or abberation?)

Conor Jackson to BOS
Buchholz, B. Moss, J. Lowrie to ARI
(paying a premium to get their starting 1B -- could we do it for less? I'm trying to score Jackson before he really breaks out.)

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jan 9, 2007 10:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Possibilities

Unfortunately, all of my trades involve pitching of some kind, because that's the currency of baseball at the moment. And the Red Sox are rich with it.

If you look at the other side of the equation and try to move Ellsbury in a package for pitchers or pitching prospects, you may be able to avoid trading our own pitching talent.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jan 9, 2007 10:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Possibilities

The CWS deal makes sense so far as Brian Anderson is at the top of their depth chart in CF... We'd need to part with more to get Jenks though.

Vote for Pedroia

by britsoxfan on Jan 9, 2007 10:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Possibilities

Interesting scenarios you created...I think the most likely of your Ellsbury trades would be the one for LaRoche. ATL would like Ellsbury in prep for Andruw's departure, and they have been shopping LaRoche already this offseason.

by Papelbonificent on Jan 9, 2007 8:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Question of the Day, 9 January 2007.

Last week I had the opportunity to visit with a young man pitching in the Phillies minor league system. He said he had had some opportunity to play against Ellsbury. In his opinion he is something special and the Red Sox nation is going to love him. He had expressed speculation that by midyear Ellsbuty would be in Boston and Coco would be dealt. Anyway, I hope the SOx keep this kid and give him a chance to develop in a Red Sox uniform. My asking price for him would be awful steep.

by gosox on Jan 9, 2007 5:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Question of the Day, 9 January 2007.

He is something special. I'm not trying to advocate trading him, just seeing what kind of packages people could put together.

"Sorry? Sorry doesn't cut it Melissa, I want an apology."-Jason Penopolis, Home Movies

by Allen Chace on Jan 9, 2007 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Marlins

So the Marlins would like a young CF...probably someone a little more major-league ready than Ellsbury, but who knows.
Potential Trade: Miguel Cabrera for Ellsbury, Bucholz, and Hansen

by Papelbonificent on Jan 9, 2007 8:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Marlins

I'm drooling about Miguel Cabrera as a Sox. He's probably one of two that I would make that trade for.

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Jan 9, 2007 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Marlins

Extraordinarily tempting. Would you throw in 1 more high-level prospect not named Bowden or Manny Delcarmen to seal the deal for Cabrera?

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jan 10, 2007 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Marlins

Scratch that. I still don't think your initial offer gets it done, but throw in Crisp and I think you have a deal.

To BOS:
M. Cabrera

To FLA:
C. Crisp, C. Buchholz, C. Hansen, J. Ellsbury

Now can we flip Lowell for prospects?

'07: Wily Mo plays CF (eek), get Drew's deal done to play RF. Manny plays LF as usual.

'08: I think Manny's gone, so Wily Mo goes to LF, Drew stays in RF, and the Sox pay out for Anduw Jones.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jan 10, 2007 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Marlins

I think the offer could get it done, though your point about Ellsbury's value probably being higher after this season is quite valid. It all depends on whether the Marlins might still want to unload players who will(or do) command extraordinarily high salaries. I have a bad feeling Miguel Cabrera ends up a Yankee when he hits FA. (Save us Arte Moreno?)

"Sorry? Sorry doesn't cut it Melissa, I want an apology."-Jason Penopolis, Home Movies

by Allen Chace on Jan 10, 2007 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Two Twins.

MIN gets CF Jacoby Ellsbury, SP Michael Bowden, SP Clay Buchholz, RP Manny Delcarmen and RP Craig Hansen
BOS gets SP Johan Santana and CL Joe Nathan

by ejruiz on Jan 9, 2007 9:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Two Twins.

That'd be ridiculously great...

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Jan 9, 2007 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Two Twins.

I can't see the Twins making this deal. Too many unproven prospects for best-in-the-league pitchers.

Subtract 1 player going to MIN, take Nathan out of the equation, and perhaps you net Santana.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jan 10, 2007 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs