Know (And Criticize) Thine Enemy, Pt. 1: Baltimore Orioles.
We've got Daisuke. We've got Lugo. Drew is all but wrapped up. And Doug Mirabelli will be catching the knuckler once again, according to reports. What do we do now? My gut feeling is that the closer position will not be solved in the very immediate future.
I thought it might be interesting to look at the moves (and non-moves) other teams in the league have been making lately. Let's start with the Orioles.
The Orioles have been remaking their bullpen. They signed Scott Williamson, Danys Baez, Jamie Walker, and Chad Bradford. All of these are good moves by themselves, for the most part. Baez, Walker, and Bradford all got too many years, and all are at least slightly overpaid. Williamson is the classic low-risk/high-reward signing at slightly under $1M/1YR. However, this significantly improves a bullpen that, beyond Chris Ray, was definitely shaky last season.
Where these are not good moves is in whether they will pay off as far as wins/the division goes. I have to think the answer there is no. The Orioles did a lot to fix one problem and basically nothing to fix the others. Their lineup returns almost completely intact, aside from the addition of old "friend" Jay Payton. A lineup that finished ahead of only 4 teams in the AL in runs scored.
Their rotation is solidly unspectacular, beyond Erik Bedard, who broke out in a pretty big way last year. He's a talented guy, but can he single-handedly make up for the solid mediocrity of Kris Benson and Jaret Wright? The inconsistency of Daniel Cabrera? The youth of Adam Loewen? The last two could be better next season: they've both got talent. Speaking of Jaret Wright, I'm probably not alone in saying the Orioles got hosed on that deal. The Yankees could've picked up his option or not; either way, giving up anything of value probably was not neccessary. Making a division rival hold on to a $7M 5-inning average/below-average starter is not the worst thing in the world. Their bullpen should be greatly improved, but on the "stength" of their rotation, their team era probably will not make a huge leap (or drop, I guess), though I suppose jettisoning these fine pitchers can only help. (Unfortunately, they've not gotten rid of Lopez quite yet.)
A couple other notable moves: Re-signing Millar? Good idea. Guy still has good plate discipline, which is somewhat lacking on that team as a whole. They also signed him for half of what they might've had to pay a Shea Hillenbrand, for example. Signing Paul Bako? The Transaction Oracle and Camden Chat's SC say it better than I ever could.
Notable non-moves? How about trading both Brian Roberts and Miguel Tejada at the peaks of their value? Don't think either LA team would fork over tons of prospects in order to slot Tejada in as their cleanup hitter and third baseman? (I think I remember reading somewhere that Tejada didn't want to move to 3B, but I read the same kind of reports about Soriano and LF) Don't think they could get a decent return on Brian Roberts while he's still young enough to be considered a semi-elite baserunner? They can in both cases, but they won't. Not as long as Angelos owns the team. Just remember. JWH, LL, TW and TE don't always get it right. But during their tenure, I can't remember Sox fans even considering something like this.
The Orioles are due for a major overhaul and some rebuilding. They're slightly better than middle of the pack, in terms of their farm system, as rated by Baseball America. Taking some of the Angels or Dodgers top-flight talent for Tejada would probably push them several spots up.
Bright Spot:Nick Markakis. Kid seems like the real deal, a good RF defensively and more-than-solid with the bat.
First Step To Improvement:Angelos selling the team to someone...anyone else.
Any thoughts?
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18 comments
Comments
Re: Know (And Criticize) Thine Enemy, Pt. 1: Balt
by jsnvaritek33 on Dec 14, 2006 10:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Know (And Criticize) Thine Enemy, Pt. 1: Balt
by Allen Chace on Dec 14, 2006 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Know (And Criticize) Thine Enemy, Pt. 1: Balt
by forage on Dec 15, 2006 12:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Know (And Criticize) Thine Enemy, Pt. 1: Balt
by Allen Chace on Dec 15, 2006 12:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Baltimore Orioles
Markakis is a stud-to-be. I lived in DC last spring and "got to" watch a lot of Oriole games on the TV, and this guy has a beautiful swing.
I've also heard rumors of an Adam Laroche trade (for Hayden Penn), who would be a legitmate power threat and move Millar to DH and keep whoever their DH would've been (Gibbons?) on the bench.
I think they'll be a better team by virtue of their 'pen improvements and their young pitching maturing. And if Markakis breaks out. I wouldn't be shocked if they eked past the Jays for 3rd place. That said, they should give up the ghost, and trade Tejada and Roberts for some fresh talent. But they won't.
by tommy.otm on Dec 15, 2006 12:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baltimore Orioles
Agreed on Markakis. Guy can hit and field. I also hear he's working on his baserunning, could be a 15-20 SB threat if successful?
They'll be a better team, but I still think they'll occupy fourth place. I'll do one of these about the Blue Jays in the next couple weeks, but their only offensive question marks on any level are Clayton and Hill(I think Hill will prove to be plenty productive for the 8th/9th slot either way). Just on that level alone they beat out the Orioles. Neither team's IF defense is great, Jays OF defense is better. I think more than a slight edge in pitching too. Of course, there are other things that would surprise me more.
by Allen Chace on Dec 15, 2006 12:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baltimore Orioles
They're going to score a lot of runs, especially if Thomas is healthy, but their pitching has regresssed. And if Wells doesn't take that contract, he'll be traded by the All-Star break. They don't scare me.
by tommy.otm on Dec 15, 2006 12:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baltimore Orioles
The Jays are going to go into the season with Brandon League as their primary setup man. Given Speier's recent injury issues and his four-year deal, I don't blame the Jays. It's going to be a drop in production though, at least for awhile.
Lilly's QS will be hard to replace.
by Allen Chace on Dec 15, 2006 1:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baltimore Orioles
by tommy.otm on Dec 15, 2006 1:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The O's have wasted
Um, right, Mr Angelos, you can just cruise to the top of the AL East by paying Chad Bradford $10.5m over three years and Jamie Walker $12m over three years. There's $22.5m just pissed up the wall, if you'll pardon the vernacular. Those arms will really come in handy for all those late inning, one run games that you won't be participating in because of holes in the lineup.
Not a good time to be an O's fan.
Really, in a league where the Red Sox, Yankees and, to a slightly lesser extent, the Blue Jays are all spending huge sums of money, it seems to be the only possible tactic would be to trade Tejada for the biggest haul of prospects possible. Rebuild, rebuild, rebuild.
by britsoxfan on Dec 15, 2006 4:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Know (And Criticize) Thine Enemy,
DH- Ortiz - FA
1B- Youk - Homegrown (I think)
2nd - Dustin P - Homegrown
SS- Lugo - FA
3B - Lowell - Trade
C - Varitek - Trade
LF- Ramirez - FA
CF - Crisp - Trade
RF - Drew - FA
Schilling - Trade
Papelbon - Homegrown
Matsuzaka - FA
Wakefield - FA
Clement - FA
Beckett - Trade
Tavarez - FA
Closer - FA/Trade
by ReLaunch on Dec 15, 2006 7:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Know (And Criticize) Thine Enemy,
by britsoxfan on Dec 15, 2006 7:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Know (And Criticize) Thine Enemy,
by ReLaunch on Dec 15, 2006 7:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Know (And Criticize) Thine Enemy,
The Damon argument doesn't wash for a variety of reasons.
I'm all for having fans of teams other than the Red Sox post on OTM, but please bring something fresh to the debate.
by britsoxfan on Dec 15, 2006 8:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Know (And Criticize) Thine Enemy,
also, you tell me to bring something fresh, Sox fans have been whining and coming to the Yanks site complaining about payroll and buying players.
by ReLaunch on Dec 15, 2006 9:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Know (And Criticize) Thine Enemy,
When I make a post for Yankees fans to point out the pretty obscure fact that the Red Sox have been spending some money this offseason, I'll be sure to give you a heads up.
If he ignored the "topic", then what exactly do you call what you were doing?
by Allen Chace on Dec 15, 2006 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Know (And Criticize) Thine Enemy,
by jsnvaritek33 on Dec 15, 2006 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Orioles
by RickD on Dec 15, 2006 9:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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