Trade Rumor ... Or Something Close to it

by Randy Booth on Dec 27, 2005 7:34 PM EST in News

OK, I've got a trade idea. But it can't be labeled a "trade rumor" until people actually make it a rumor. So I'm going to propose the trade, and you, the readers of Over The Monster, must go out and tell all your friends and family about it. It doesn't even matter if they're not Red Sox fans. Tell them anyways. Maybe -- just maybe -- they'll for some reason repeat it to someone else. Then we'll have a great chain of rumors. Can everyone do that for me? Thanks.

This is how my trade 'idea' breaks down:

Red Sox Receive:
LA Prospect(s)
Really doesn't matter who it is as long as they have some appeal then they will do.

Dodgers Receive:
David Wells
LA gets their starters, and we take their prospects off their hands.

Then!

Red Sox Receive:
SS Julio Lugo
CF Rocco Baldelli
I know I said I don't want Lugo, but I'd take him as long as we can get Baldelli. My mouth foams over the potential of having Baldelli roam centerfield in a Red Sox uniform.

Devil Rays Receive:
LA Prospect(s)
RHP Bronson Arroyo
We give the D-Rays the prospects they want PLUS Arroyo who might be able to land us Baldelli in the deal.

This works out beautifully, in my opinion. It leaves our rotation looking like this:

RHP Curt Schilling
RHP Josh Beckett
RHP Tim Wakefield
RHP Matt Clement
RHP Jonathan Papelbon

With trading Arroyo and Wells, then we can have Papelbon in the rotation where he should be. I don't think having him ride the bullpen pine will do his arm much good. Let's utilize the young stallion.

The D-Rays won't want to take on Clement's large contract, so Arroyo looks like the logical choice in this trade unless the Sox pony up and take the majority of Clement's contract on.

These two trades fill the holes we have in our lineup. Baldelli is a great defensive centerfielder, and Lugo is a solid shortstop in all facets of his game. Both can hit leadoff, also, leaving that hole to be filled.

And, if you are wondering, Baldelli is actually younger than both Coco Crisp and Jeremy Reed, other centerfield candidates for Boston in 2006. Baldelli, however, brings the best of both worlds of Crisp and Reed. He has the great defense that is associated with Reed, and has a bat that may be better than Crisp's. However, he did miss all of last season with knee and elbow injuries.

Whether the D-Rays will be willing to trade Baldelli is another question all in itself. They just gave him a nice, fat contract on November 10th for 6-years that could be worth up to $32 million. If the price is right, though, no one is untouchable.

Mull it over, Red Sox Nation.

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Comments

I like it

I think this is a good idea. The one problem is that Rocco did sign that large deal. I would love to see him in Boston. I like Lugo though. He is fast, can steal bases and can lead off. Get him in a good line-up and he could do a lot. It also really depends on the prospects we get from LA. I mean, if we some how manage to get Chad Billingsly, or Joel Guzman, i would like to keep them. We will see though, only time will tell. I just hope the front office doesn't do something really dumb.

by absolutelax395 on Dec 28, 2005 12:03 AM EST reply actions

some problems

Neither Lugo nor Baldelli can bat leadoff. Baldelli gets on base at a .326 clip, which is terrible for a leadoff guy. At best, he should hit out of the 9 spot, a la Robinson Cano. Lugo had a good year last year, but looking back at his track record, his career obp sits in the .320-.330 range, which isn't going to cut it.

I also think the Red Sox should do its best to hold onto Bronson Arroyo. I honestly can't see Clement thriving in Fenway, and he has never seemed comfortable to me (4.90 ERA at home vs. 4.20 ERA away). I think alot of it might be mental (recall he got knocked clean off his feet by a comebacker), but he wasn't the same pitcher after that incident.

Lastly, this deal required the Dodgers to give up some prospects. I don't think they are the kind of organization that would give up ANY of its top talent for 1 year of a 43 year old 4.xx ERA pitcher. It doesn't make sense for them, with the kind of depth that they have. If they give us 2 middle tier talent players, we don't have enough bargaining chips to pry Lugo and Rocco away anyways.

Sorry Randy, I see too many holes in this one.

by forage @ Over the Monster on Dec 28, 2005 2:16 AM EST reply actions

RE:

Last season, Lugo had 217 AB in the leadoff spot and hit a respectable .286 with a <u>.366 OBP</u&gt. Not too bad, in my opinion. Also consider that Damon, in 621 AB, hit .317 in the leadoff spot with a <u>.367 OBP</u&gt. Damon's BA was a 31 points better than Lugo, but his OBP was only one better. I think that says a lot right there.

Here's another stat: Damon saw 3.72 P/PA (pitches per plate appearance) while Lugo saw 3.62 P/PA. Not a big difference there, either (that was actually a down-year for Lugo, as the previous seasons he ranged from 3.80 to 4.04).

So if we're talking about last year, I think Lugo is a really good leadoff hitter (considering all of that and his speed) and may be better than Damon.

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Dec 28, 2005 7:58 AM EST up reply actions

on Lugo

There is no question in my mind that Lugo had a great year last year. But, I'm not sure if it was a fluke year, of if he showed serious improvement. looking at his career on base percentage numbers, they are:

.346
.326
.322
.333
.338
.362

you see the the spike is above his career average by about 25-30 points. Also, his average last year was also about 20 points above his career average. I don't think its safe to invest in someone that could turn out to be a one hit wonder. I for one would like to see someone who proves he can put up numbers like that over several seasons, not just one.

Also, if he hit .286, he acutally underperformed in the leadoff spot. Last season, he hit .295. Its true that he maintained his on base percentage, but wouldn't you rather have a leadoff hitter hitting a few more doubles and getting into scoring position than merely taking walks? That was what made Johnny Damon such a great leadoff hitter, with a .317 average. He would hit doubles and even triples to get into scoring position for Renteria.

by forage @ Over the Monster on Dec 28, 2005 12:55 PM EST up reply actions

Another trade

THis is a rumor that has really never died or taken any form, but it is still out there: Nixon and Clement for Abreu. THis might happen, who knows?

by absolutelax395 on Dec 28, 2005 10:40 AM EST reply actions

Arroyo

A year I loved Arroyo, couldn't wait to see how he flourished. Then the guy's K/9 ratio went through the basement. I think we're talking about a guy whose perceived peak value is right now. He's a 14 game winner whom nobody wanted to see start in the postseason - doesn't that tell us something?
This is the best time to trade Bronson (how many truly focused players have be told not to play with their band during the regular season?). Again, I like the guy, but I don't think he has more value as a swingman than a young, high-ceiling center fielder would. And I don't want to see him pushing Papelbon to the pen.

by alfredoz on Dec 28, 2005 1:21 PM EST reply actions

it's been said before...

...but i'll say it again.
regardless of the moves we make for the rest of the offseason, one of the results NEEDS to be papelbon starting. he's too friggin good to spend a year in the pen at this point.

by SweSox on Dec 28, 2005 3:32 PM EST reply actions

Bona fide rumor

First things: Arroyo had a great opener, before the suspension. I think he can get his head together and stick it out. (I do have an irrational fondness for the guy, and who else is gonna bean A-Rod when we need it?)

Second: Heard a rumor over at Surviving Grady, available at Gotham Baseball (which website I've never really visited, but cool).

Long and short: 4-team trade, Miggy to Bos, Manny to NYM, Kris Benson and Lugo to BAL, and Heilman and prospects to TB. Who knows if it's real or what, but... hey.

Tony the Pony

by Tony the pony on Dec 28, 2005 3:44 PM EST reply actions

Clarify

Gotham Baseball is a New York site, obviously, and what I found "cool" was just the speculation about this one trade, not the Yankee coverage. Just... just making that clear.

Tony the Pony

by Tony the pony on Dec 28, 2005 3:50 PM EST up reply actions

Good Idea

Rocco Baldelli has the arm Johnny Damon wishes he had. He can hit 6-9 with some power, more than make up for Millar's RBI's and he runs the bases like Ty Cobb.
Trade Manny for Tejada and get Mike Piazza to play first base (2 year deal 8-9 million per). That give us a decent bat and a once a week back up for Tek.

by gmp on Dec 28, 2005 5:40 PM EST reply actions

Rocco

It seems pretty unlikely Baldelli would be moved, but we might as well hold out for guys like him.
Our team is not complete, but let's wait for only the right guys. If we don't get them, we don't. I'd rather struggle through a couple of months of Stern in center and Cora (or Graff) at short than sign Corey Patterson and Alex Gonzalez.

Barring a Miggy deal, I would be happy seeing Graf, Cora and Loretta sharing the middle infield. I also don't think we need to kill ourselves for a lead-off hitter. Graff or Loretta could do it as well as nearly all available candidates. Perfect? Hardly. Good enuogh? Yes.

by alfredoz on Dec 28, 2005 5:49 PM EST reply actions

Baldelli

Baldelli's arm is a true rocket. I seem to remember a game where he threw out, like, three guys in a row that Sveum sent home.

by Hudson on Dec 29, 2005 12:16 AM EST reply actions

Also

In all seriousness, much as I'd like to see the above happen, these multiteam deals are almost always pure fantasy.

Meanwhile, ESPN is making noises about Manny and Clement deal for Tejada, which I'd do in a heartbeat, but I don't believe will happen.

by Hudson on Dec 29, 2005 12:18 AM EST reply actions

agree

i don't think this deal is going through. theres no way the orioles are going to absorb Manny's AND clements deals, after all of the offseason moves they've been doing. unfortunate, because that would've been something to see....

by forage @ Over the Monster on Dec 29, 2005 12:57 AM EST reply actions

Rumor: Snow

ESPN reports that the Sox are about to sign JT Snow. Does anyone know what the Red Sox front office is doing? Why are we getting another first baseman? We already have a logjam of corner infielders (Lowell, Youkilis, Petagine), so I don't understand why we sign a guy to back up Youkilis at first. Isn't that what Petagine is for? It doesn't make sense to have two backups for 1 position, we need to have utility guys on the bench that can play more than one position. This guy is also 37, and is REALLY SLOW! I don't get it...

by forage @ Over the Monster on Dec 29, 2005 1:48 AM EST reply actions

I agree...

When your team has three 3B, two 1B, three C and like seven starters, but no shortstop and no centerfielder... this makes no sense to me.

Only thing I can figure is they've got some trades lined up. But if a team wanted Snow, why not just sign him directly?

Or maybe a slow 37 year old is just what they figure they need in CF, who knows?

Tony the Pony

by Tony the pony on Dec 29, 2005 11:54 AM EST up reply actions

RE:

Well, if they got Glaus, then Youkilis would probably be the late-inning defensive replacement. But now we've got Snow, Youk's late-inning defensive replacement.

Hate to break everyone's hearts but...

The Sox Front Office aren't fans of Petagine. He'll have to hit really well in spring training to make this team.

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Dec 29, 2005 3:21 PM EST up reply actions

Snowing

Snow will be the 2006 version of Olerud. Excellent glove, decent bat but too brittle for an everyday role. This probably means that, (as Randy says), he will be Youkilis's back up and Petagine is outside looking in. The Miggy for Ramirez/Clement trade could go through if the Sox cough up 5 to 10 mil to cover some of Clement. It seem to be the only thing that would make sense to the O's in that they would need a star to replace Miggy unless their choice is to just keep him. But, then we need a left fielder and a center fielder.

by yazmon on Dec 29, 2005 8:28 PM EST up reply actions

I continue to be confused by that.

What exactly do they have against Petagine? Other than age, I mean. I don't think he should be starting (and CERTAINLY not over Youks), but why does management seem so keen on keeping him off the bench?

by Boston Fan in Michigan on Dec 29, 2005 11:38 PM EST up reply actions

RE:

I don't know why, but I do know their dislike for him is evident.

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Dec 29, 2005 11:42 PM EST up reply actions

Or

Jacoby Ellsbury blows the team away with an unbelievable spring training and starts in center next year.

And Pedroia follows suit and starts for SS.

Leave Youk at first, lets see what he can do.

by dplaczek252 on Dec 29, 2005 8:15 PM EST reply actions

unlikely

the man has only faced single A pitching!! I'm not saying that its not impressive, but he definitely needs to at least pass the double A test before even being considered as for the club. The thing I fear the most is that the Sox will rush a guy like him, and he'll just totally lose his composure (Cla Meredith). Let him marinate in the minors next year. I feel that aiming for Ellsbury in 2007 would be quite a stretch; he'd have to jump through double and triple A in a season!

by forage @ Over the Monster on Dec 29, 2005 10:57 PM EST up reply actions

RE:

I also feel it's a stretch, but he did hit well against NCAA pitching and A-Ball. 2006 will be his biggest test, depending where he starts.

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Dec 29, 2005 11:22 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah I know

Yeah I know it's fairly obvious that it won't happen, I was more day dreaming. Rookies and prospects are my favorite part of the game so I was just throwing it out there for fun.

by dplaczek252 on Dec 30, 2005 1:24 AM EST reply actions

How Come

All the Sportswriters talk about how the Nation hates the word 'rebuilding,' yet we all want to see young unproven players over half-assed veterans? Where do the writers dream this stuff up? From AM talk radio? We're the Nation, not those jackasses.

by alfredoz on Dec 30, 2005 8:36 PM EST reply actions

I haven't been listening to them

Is the Boston sportsmedia calling it 'rebuilding' yet? It certainly is. Duquette set it up that way with Nomar, 'Tek, Nixon, and others (whom I can remember) all coming up for free agency in the same year. That doesn't mean we have to suck, but we're in a transition period waiting for our young, talented guys to step up.

Isn't Ortiz a FA next year?

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jan 2, 2006 9:54 AM EST up reply actions