Today over at Baseball Nation, I took a look at Edwin Jackson and the 2013 starting pitcher market. The reasoning behind this is that Jackson reportedly has a few one-year offers lined up courtesy of the Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals, while the Orioles are out there saying they would go four years on Jackson if he'd have them.

Basically, there are a whole lot of free agent starting pitchers who also happen to have some ability becoming free agents in 2013. Not as many as there could be, given nearly one-third of them have favorable club options attached to their contracts, but still, a significant number of starting pitchers potentially switching jobs.

More starting pitchers on the market means more starting pitcher vacancies to fill. The Red Sox and Cardinals would benefit from a one-year deal with Edwin Jackson, as it wouldn't tie up their future but would solidify the present day, but Jackson would benefit from such an arrangement as well. If Nick Cardado's report yesterday is accurate, Jackson's agent, Scott Boras, is aware of this as well. Waiting a year would also mean he didn't need to pitch for the as-of-now likely last place team in the AL East for four years.

With Roy Oswalt seemingly infatuated with Texas, and a Gavin Floyd trade looking like it's going to happen later rather than sooner (if at all), how does Jackson on a one-year deal within the constraints of Boston's budget sound? (Besides surprisingly plausible.)

The third spot on the list was always the one that was going to be obvious. At least here on Over The Monster, the community clearly held that there was a top tier of prospects formed by three men: Xander Bogaerts, Ryan Lavarnway, and Will Middlebrooks. With Lavarnway and Middlebrooks having taken first and second, Bogaerts was pretty much a lock for third.

Of course, that's actually a bit of a hit for Bogaerts, who has made his way to the top of many a prospector's list. And it's not hard to see why, either. As one of the youngest players at his level, Bogaerts tore the cover off the ball with Single-A Greenville. Even though he had some discipline struggles at the plate (hardly surprising at his age), he managed to hit 16 home runs in just 265 at bats en route to a .249 ISO. While he doesn't necessarily project to stay at shortstop long term, the added mass that will cause the shift could well add even more power.

With his breakout year having been predated by Jim Callis calling him our most exciting player to come from the DSL since Hanley Ramirez, it's just hard not to get hyped up about him.

1. Ryan Lavarnway, C/DH
2. Will Middlebrooks, 3B
3. Xander Bogaerts, SS

Prince Fielder signed a nine-year, $214 million deal with the Tigers earlier this week. It seemingly came out of nowhere, but the Tigers, Nationals, Dodgers, and possibly others were all in on Fielder seriously, just under the radar. That was the price it took to sign the first baseman, and while other teams decided not paying at all beat signing up for nine years of a guy whose body might betray him as he ages, the Tigers took the plunge.

Last winter, the Red Sox signed Carl Crawford to a seven-year, $142 million deal. Excitement was the initial response, but a poor debut with Boston has given his detractors reason to loathe the deal, while his supporters are just waiting for 2012 to begin in the hopes they're on the right track in regards to his future.

Which of these two deals is less risky? Which would you rather your team be responsible for? Inspired by The Platoon Advantage's Bill Parker, let's do a little digging.

Continue reading this post »

Dan Wheeler signed with the Cleveland Indians yesterday, a move that should have netted the Red Sox a draft pick. Wheeler was a Type-B free agent in the last off-season that those will exist -- the new collective bargaining agreement eliminates the Elias Rankings, and revamps the compensation system. Since it was only Type-B status and not Type-A, there was no penalty lined up (meaning no lost draft picks) for whoever inked him to a deal, just the bonus pick to the team who lost him.

Despite this, the Indians signed Wheeler to a minor league deal only, costing the Red Sox a potential extra pick in the 2012 amateur entry draft, as well as $950,000 in potential cap room for the draft. Compensation doesn't apply to minor league deals, a fact that makes sense on the surface, but is no less annoying when you're a fan of the team who lost the player.

Wheeler was offered arbitration by the Red Sox after his option was declined, even though arbitration would have represented a raise. It's likely there was a gentleman's agreement between the two parties that arbitration would be rejected, so that Boston could recoup this pick. Cleveland has stepped right in the way of that.

This happened to the Red Sox with Felipe Lopez in 2010. Lopez was acquired at the very end of the season, and should have been, if nothing else, an extra compensatory pick for the Red Sox in the 2011 draft. The Rays signed him to a minor league deal, though, basically robbing Boston of their own little draft trick.

There is one way the Red Sox can still get a pick, though: if the Indians put Wheeler on their Opening Day roster, Boston can petition the commissioner's office for a draft pick, since at that point it looks like Cleveland was just tiptoeing around the rules. Given the Indians' pen isn't the greatest in the world, and Wheeler is still a useful piece, this is a likely scenario, but not guaranteed. It doesn't take much roster shuffling to delay Wheeler's 2012 MLB debut by a few days.

Personally, I'm curious about what caused Wheeler's stock to fall this far. After his injury in early 2011, he was very productive during the 39 innings that he was let out of his cage, and now it took him until late-January to find work, when his agent has been actively calling teams about him for at least a month.

It's been almost four months since the hideous ending to the season and, hopefully, that has put a small portion of emotional distance between us and the 2011 Red Sox, enough to be able to start to see some of the players and their actions in a less jaundiced light; enough to begin a civil discussion about one of the more polarizing figures on the team. As you probably gathered from the title, this is a little post about John Lackey.

In preparation for this week's podcast with Chad Finn of the Boston Globe (you can check Episode 37 out here; the parts where Marc and Mr. Finn talk are highly recommended), I listened back to the previous time we were lucky enough to have Mr. Finn on the podcast. That would be Episode 22, which was posted at OTM on September 23, 2011. As you might guess from the date, the dominant topic at the time was the on-going disintegration of the Red Sox.

About eight minutes into the discussion, Marc said (and I'm paraphrasing), "John Lackey had an elbow condition. He was terrible before a cortisone shot on his elbow and was solid afterwards. But the further we get from that shot the worse he is. He probably needs a procedure on that elbow." Then Mr. Finn said (again, paraphrasing), "I think he's pitching through something. I think there is something to Peter Gammons' report that he might need Tommy John surgery. It fits his personality, he's a tough guy. It's one of the reasons why he's still a respected guy in the clubhouse. He's a gamer. I think we'll find out something after the season about him pitching through something he shouldn't have been pitching through."

As it turned out, they were both right.

Continue reading this post »

Scott Atchison has been designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster for free agent signing Cody Ross. Even though Ross's signing was confirmed earlier in the week, a roster crunch prohibited the deal from being finalized.

Ross will serve as the right-handed portion of a platoon in right field with another new acquisition, Ryan Sweeney. Combined, the two should make for a far superior right field than what Boston managed in 2011, as even Josh Reddick's above-average campaign at the plate couldn't make up for an team showing of .233/.299/.353, their worst line at any position.

Scott Atchison has bounced between Triple-A Pawtucket and the majors as a long-relief depth option the last two seasons. He was out of his element leverage-wise in 2010 when the bullpen was down to its last shreds of health, giving up nine homers in 60 innings while posting a 4.50 ERA. In 2011 he settled in for a solid 30 innings of low-leverage, middle relief work, with an improved 2.8 K/BB ratio and without yielding a single home run. Neither sample is particularly large, but that's because Atchison's best fit is as that kind of depth option.

There are enough arms of similar-or-better ability that losing him wouldn't be the worst thing that could happen to the roster, but, this very thing is why it's also possible Atchison will clear waivers and remain with the Red Sox, just off of their 40-man roster if/until they need him around this summer.

[Update 3:07 pm]: Nick Cafardo tweets that the Red Sox are believed to be "one of few teams" Edwin Jackson would sign a one-year deal with.

Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports that the Baltimore Orioles are intrigued by Edwin Jackson, enough to want to offer him four years if they get the chance. The Red Sox are looking at Jackson as well, hoping no one else is interested so that he'll come cheap, in terms of both years and dollars.

The good news? Connolly isn't convinced that just because the Orioles are willing to offer four years means that Scott Boras and Jackson would take it.

After all, this is the Orioles, and if Jackson is going to suffer the pains of the AL East, he's probably going to want to do it while on a team that might actually score some runs for him rather than against him. He would be just 32 years old at the end of a four-year contract, so the traumatic experience could hypothetically hurt him when he's still young enough for a lucrative free agent deal. Plus, a successful season in Boston (should Boras settle for a "pillow contract") would help to dispel doubts about his ability to be productive in the tough AL East, making him a more attractive option to all 30 teams next year than he has been this winter.

And it's not exactly clear at this moment -- especially after an off-season where the Orioles didn't do very much housecleaning -- how soon the O's will contend, if they even would during a four-year deal. There are plenty of reasons to not just chase the money here, even if Jackson is a Boras client.

Boston isn't likely to chase Jackson if the O's offer is taken seriously by his camp, as they are more comfortable getting Jackson "at their offer price," according to Buster Olney. There's room in the budget for that, not a bidding war with the Orioles (or anyone). But maybe it won't even come to that.

Courtesy of Alex Speier over at WEEI.com, we now have an updated look at the Red Sox' current budget, and the kind of flexibility they have remaining to them.

Follow the link if you want the full breakdown, which Speier has broken up into multiple categories: fixed salaries, arbitration eligible (meaning the unsigned David Ortiz and Alfredo Aceves), estimates for pre-arbitration eligible players, notable minor league deals (i.e., Aaron Cook and Vicente Padilla's possible $1.5 million deals), and, of course, "other".

The gist? The luxury tax threshold is $178 million, and the Red Sox are currently estimated, before they sign anyone else, to be at about $170 million without counting the $14 million extra spent on the medical staff, the 40-man roster, and bonuses. If they are forced to go to arbitration with Aceves or Ortiz, that number could rise or fall, but there is room for a signing there (such as the rumored offers for Roy Oswalt and Edwin Jackson, assuming the two can't find the higher-priced work they want elsewhere), or just of flexibility for the regular season, should they wait until the price falls on someone like Gavin Floyd, or even Wandy Rodriguez.

This is also a good place to remind everyone that Boston's opening day payroll in 2011 was just under $164 million, and that they ended up paying the luxury tax for their 40-man roster by year's end. They aren't "cheaping out", even if they did deal Marco Scutaro partly for financial flexibility -- if anything, they're likely ahead of last year's pace, and just as likely to pay the tax once more with baseball's second-highest payroll.